The Phase Shift between the Global Surface Temperature and the CO2 Content in the Atmosphere According to Simulations with the Ensemble of CMIP6 Models

IF 0.7 4区地球科学 Q4 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Doklady Earth Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-19 DOI:10.1134/s1028334x24601688

K. E. Muryshev, A. V. Eliseev, I. I. Mokhov, A. V. Timazhev, G. P. Klimovich

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Abstract

The phase shifts between the global surface temperature T and the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere q obtained in numerical experiments with models of the Earth’s climate system under the CMIP6 project (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, phase 6) for the period of 1850–2014 have been analyzed. According to the study results, the sign of the phase shift between q and T depends not only on the time interval analyzed, but also on the processing method of the initial series. The initial q series (with a filtered annual cycle) is ahead in phase with the corresponding T series for most models and time intervals. The first differences (inter-monthly increments) of the q series lag in phase behind the corresponding first differences of the T series by about ten months with an adequate reproduction of the results obtained by analyzing the observation data over recent decades. It means that such a delay should not be an argument against the generally accepted global warming theory related to the current increase in temperature to the dominant influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.

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根据 CMIP6 模型集合模拟得出的全球地表温度与大气中二氧化碳含量之间的相位变化

摘要分析了在 CMIP6 项目（耦合模式相互比较项目，第 6 阶段）下的地球气候系统模式数值实验中获得的 1850-2014 年期间全球地表温度 T 与大气中二氧化碳含量 q 之间的相移。研究结果表明，q 和 T 之间相移的符号不仅取决于分析的时间间隔，还取决于初始序列的处理方法。在大多数模式和时间区间内，初始 q 序列（具有滤波年周期）与相应的 T 序列相位超前。q 序列的初差（月间增量）在相位上滞后于相应的 T 序列初差约 10 个月，充分再现了通过分析近几十年的观测数据所获得的结果。这意味着，这种滞后不应该成为反对普遍接受的全球变暖理论的论据，该理论认为目前的气温上升与人为温室气体排放到大气中的主要影响有关。

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来源期刊

Doklady Earth Sciences 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

1.40

自引率

22.20%

发文量

138

审稿时长

3-6 weeks

期刊介绍： Doklady Earth Sciences is a journal that publishes new research in Earth science of great significance. Initially the journal was a forum of the Russian Academy of Science and published only best contributions from Russia. Now the journal welcomes submissions from any country in the English or Russian language. Every manuscript must be recommended by Russian or foreign members of the Russian Academy of Sciences.