Organic farming expansion and food security: A review of foresight modeling studies

Abstract

Organic farming has gained attention as a sustainable form of agriculture. However, concerns have been raised about its relatively low productivity. This paper reviews 23 modeling studies devoted to the large-scale implementation of organic farming that explicitly consider food supply and demand, with a particular focus on the capability of the simulated systems to provide sufficient food. Across all studies, the expansion of organic farming resulted in an important decrease in food production, which was more pronounced in studies simulating N cycle and its effects on organic crop yields (−44%). Nonetheless, this decrease could be compensated for by dietary changes and by a combination of other complementary measures. These results are nuanced by knowledge gaps and limitations of current models, particularly regarding the simulation of organic systems productivity and the consideration of outcomes beyond food provisioning. This review adds weight to the recent calls for a food system approach and contributes to future research on the implementation of agroecological systems and global food security modeling.