Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment最新文献

Small island developing states in the Pacific face multiple development challenges driven by rapid population growth and high transportation costs due to remoteness and isolation. Combined with the adverse consequences of extreme weather events and climate change, these challenges exacerbate poverty and food insecurity. Agricultural value chain development presents a pathway to poverty reduction and food security. In this paper, we assess the impacts of two value chain development projects in Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands on dietary diversity and food security of small-scale producers. Project impacts on dietary diversity are positive and significant in both countries, but improved food security is only observed in Solomon Islands. These impacts are mainly driven by crop yields, value of crop production and sales, crop diversification and share of crop sales. We find that treatment households are more likely to consume less nutritious foods such as sweets and oils. Our findings expand the literature in a data-scarce region and caution that value chain interventions without nutrition-focused components to induce behavioral change may have unintended impacts on healthy diets.

Understanding the global economic importance of farmed animals to society is essential as a baseline for decision making about future food systems. We estimated the annual global economic (market) value of live animals and primary production outputs, e.g., meat, eggs, milk, from terrestrial and aquatic farmed animal systems. The results suggest that the total global market value of farmed animals ranges between 1.61 and 3.3 trillion USD (2018) and is expected to be similar in absolute terms to the market value of crop outputs (2.57 trillion USD). The cattle sector dominates the market value of farmed animals. The study highlights the need to consider other values of farmed animals to society, e.g., finance/insurance value and cultural value, in decisions about the sector’s future.

Seed is life and can be a source of empowerment and disempowerment for women and men farmers. In this study, to close the gender gaps in seed, the Community Enterprises Development Organization, the Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT and the National Agricultural Research Organization developed a seed credit model available to men and women belonging to farmer groups. A mixed method was used to collect information from two districts in central Uganda on how the seed credit model reconstructed access, use, control and resulting benefits. Results showed that the provision of the seed credit model was considered a blessing even though it had many nuances. As a result of the seed credit model, we saw increased productivity in women's fields, increased income and decision making over income incurred from the sale of their crops. Their social status has been enhanced, and they now occupy a place of respect in their communities and households, where they can make decisions and get assets like houses and land. While it increased productivity, income and enhanced food and nutrition security needs of the family, it also changed power dynamics within the household as women become more empowered. To maintain power relations, men limited women's access to fertile land and family labor, which defined the quantity of seed gotten from the seed credit model. Women's participation and involvement in the seed credit model decreased over time as they were expected to pay their spouses' seed loans. Men's participation decreased because they were no longer entrusted with seed loans as their payment rate was very low. As we reap positive benefits, we have to ensure we don't ‘do harm’ when empowering our beneficiaries.

There are major gaps in our understanding of food environments (FE) in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) witnessing differential and complex social and economic transition. The present integrative review was conducted to develop a conceptual framework of FE for LMICs using socio-ecological and access theory. The FE framework has four layers: public policy, community/neighborhood (including organizational e.g., markets, schools), household, and individual. Availability, accessibility, and affordability with built-in socio-cultural and contextual factors were the major domains in every layer. The following additional domains emerged: global influences, marketing and regulation, nutrition programs, time-constrained family members, and food behavior. Wet and informal markets are important components of FE. The next step is determining the model's resilience to accommodate and capture nuances across LMICs.

This paper analyses to what extent it would be possible to ensure food availability to the world population by 2050 with two objectives: healthy diets and no farmland expansion. Assumptions were made to project exogenous demand and supply variables. Climate change impacts on crop yields, grazing use intensities and maximum cultivable areas were taken into account. Cropland and pastureland needs were then estimated for 21 regions using a global biomass balance model. Simulation results established for two sets of crop yield projections (‘moderate’ versus ‘high’ growth) show that several regions (India, Rest of Asia, Near- and Middle-East countries and North Africa, as well as West Africa in the case of ‘moderate’ yield growth) would be constrained by their maximum cultivable areas with no deforestation. Our scenarios would be technically infeasible because of additional pastureland needs notably in sub-Saharan Africa. As a consequence, we analyse to what extent additional levers could reduce pastureland needs in sub-Saharan Africa.

Research on food system responses to COVID-19 has remained largely disconnected from the broader risk governance scholarship. We connect both literatures by adopting a risk governance lens to study how governments have dealt with COVID-19 induced food system risks across different phases of the crisis. Studying responses in five low- and middle-income countries – Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mexico, Nigeria and Vietnam – we find that food system risks and actors related to the food system were largely absent from initial risks assessment and policy responses, leading to growing food insecurity risks for vulnerable groups. Feedback and involvement from local governments and societal actors improved the capacities to assess and mitigate food system risks. We suggest developing future arrangements that involve actors with knowledge on food system risks to allow for more adequate responses.

Violent conflict is a major cause of acute food crises. In 2021, at least 155 million people in 10 countries were severely food insecure and eight of those countries were experiencing armed conflict. On February 24, 2022, an armed conflict between Russian Federation (Russia) and Ukraine escalated. As Russia and Ukraine are major wheat exporters, this will aggravate the already precarious food security situation in many developing countries by disrupting wheat production and export and by accelerating price hikes in import-dependent developing countries. This study examines the potential impacts of this ongoing armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine on wheat price, consumption, and calorie intake from wheat. In doing so, it applies the conditional mixed process estimation procedure using information collected from 163 countries and territories for the years 2016–2019 from online database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The study shows that, on average, a 1% decrease in the global wheat trade could increase the producers' price of wheat by 1.1%, and a 1% increase in the producers' price could reduce the yearly per capita wheat consumption by 0.59%, daily calorie intake by 0.54% and protein intake by 0.64% in the sampled countries. Based on this, the study demonstrates that a 50% reduction in wheat exports by Russia and Ukraine could increase the producers’ price of wheat by 15%, which would induce a reduction in wheat consumption and dietary energy intake by at least 8%. Since wheat export has reduced from both Russia and Ukraine, to avoid a food crisis in developing countries, policies are suggested, including near term improvement of domestic wheat production by promoting improved agronomic practices to close yield gaps to meet a substantial portion of wheat self-sufficiency goals. In the long run, countries in Africa, East Asia and South America can explore expanding wheat into new land area. International donor agencies can play a key role in supporting the ongoing wheat research and development activities.

The war in Ukraine threatened to block 9% of global wheat exports, driving wheat prices to unprecedented heights. We advocate, that in the short term, compensating for such an export shortage will require a coordinated release of wheat stocks, while if the export block persists, other export countries will need to fill the gap by increasing wheat yields or by expanding wheat cropping areas by 8% in aggregate. We estimate that a production increase would require an extra half a million tons of nitrogen fertilizer, yet fertilizer prices are at record levels, driven by rising energy prices. Year-to-year variability plus more frequent climate change-induced crop failures could additionally reduce exports by another 5 to 7 million tons in any given year, further stressing global markets. Without stabilizing wheat supplies through judicious management of stocks and continuing yield improvements, food and national security are at risk across many nations in the world.

The study assesses potential effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on agri-food sectors and food security in Africa. It employs the global Computable General Equilibrium model MAGNET in an ex ante analysis. The analysis has high regional and sectoral detail, representing the wide variety of African economies and trade policy strategies.

The AfCFTA lifts 1.0 million people from risk of hunger while increasing national incomes. The rise in food prices offsets the increase in household income in a few regions. Food production increases in total, but several regions reduce production while increasing imports. Non-tariff measure reductions have higher impact than tariff cuts. A group of countries could experience adverse food security effects due to the AfCFTA.