Fertility divergence across large and small areas

Abstract

This paper examines U.S. female fertility during 2005–2019. Small areas had higher fertility rates than large metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) during each year. Both experienced fertility declines between 2005 and 2019. However, decreased fertility was more pronounced for large MSAs, and the fertility gap between large and small areas widened considerably. Investigation by age group reveals that diverging fertility across large and small areas is driven by women ages 25–34. We also use multivariate regression analysis for ages 25–34 to consider relationships between individual-level and area-level characteristics and spatial divergence in fertility. Employment patterns, foreign-born status, and local housing costs are notable factors.