Short-term predictions of PM10 and NO2 concentrations in urban environments based on ARIMA search grid modeling

Abstract

Air pollution poses a persistent challenge for urban management departments and policymakers due to its significant health and economic impacts. Various cities worldwide have implemented diverse strategies and initiatives to enhance air quality monitoring and modeling standards. However, the outcomes of these efforts often manifest over the long term, leading to a preference for short-term statistical methods. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) search grid modeling approach has gained widespread use for forecasting air quality. This paper presents a comprehensive time series analysis conducted to predict air quality in urban areas of Budapest, Hungary, with a focus on nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and particulate matter (PM₁₀), using air quality data spanning from 2018 to 2022 for four monitoring categories: Urban traffic, industrial background, urban background, and suburban background. The study employs the ARIMA search grid method to forecast concentrations of these pollutants at multiple air quality monitoring stations based on Akaike information criteria (AIC) and the Bayesian information criteria (BIC) criteria along with the results of augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test. The results demonstrate varying levels of forecast accuracy across different stations, indicating the model's effectiveness in short-term predicting of air quality. These findings are essential for assessing the reliability of air quality forecasts in Budapest and can inform decisions regarding air quality management and the development of strategies to address air pollution and particulate matter concerns in the region.