A Possibility Evaluation Model for Road Transportation of Hazardous Chemicals Based on Bow-tie Theory and Bayesian Model

Abstract

This paper collected 1115 road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals in China from 2013 to 2021, and constructed a total of 120 accident chains, among which the most common accident chain was "impact → rear-end collision → fuel tank damage → leakage", with a total of 195 times. Based on the analysis of historical accident data, the occurrence mechanism of road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals was discussed. Based on the bow-tie theory, the bow-tie diagram was established to realize the construction of qualitative reasoning bow-tie diagram for multi-disaster coupling accidents in road transportation of hazardous chemicals. The mapping rules between Bow-tie model and Bayesian network were established, and the structure of Bayesian network for road transportation of hazardous chemicals was constructed. The prior probability and conditional probability of Bayesian network nodes are determined by multi-source data, and the real-time accident probability evaluation is realized by combining quantitative and qualitative methods. Finally, a real time evaluation of the possibility of multi-disaster coupling accidents is realized every 30 seconds through a numerical example, which reflects the influence law of multi-disaster coupling scenarios on risks.