Can we rely on drought-ending “miracles” in the Colorado River Basin?

IF 2.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Journal of The American Water Resources Association Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI:10.1111/1752-1688.13204
Binod Pokharel, Kripa Akila Jagannathan, S.-Y. Simon Wang, Andrew Jones, Matthew D. LaPlante, Smitha Buddhavarapu, Krishna Borhara, Paul Ulrich, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, James Eklund, Candice Hasenyager, Jake Serago, James R. Prairie, Laurna Kaatz, Taylor Winchell, Frank Kugel
{"title":"Can we rely on drought-ending “miracles” in the Colorado River Basin?","authors":"Binod Pokharel,&nbsp;Kripa Akila Jagannathan,&nbsp;S.-Y. Simon Wang,&nbsp;Andrew Jones,&nbsp;Matthew D. LaPlante,&nbsp;Smitha Buddhavarapu,&nbsp;Krishna Borhara,&nbsp;Paul Ulrich,&nbsp;Lai-Yung Ruby Leung,&nbsp;James Eklund,&nbsp;Candice Hasenyager,&nbsp;Jake Serago,&nbsp;James R. Prairie,&nbsp;Laurna Kaatz,&nbsp;Taylor Winchell,&nbsp;Frank Kugel","doi":"10.1111/1752-1688.13204","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Unexpected and large spring precipitation events in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) that significantly alleviated an otherwise severe water shortage have been observed for over a century, such as the “Miracle May” of 2015. Although these events are often termed as “drought-busting” or “miracle events” by water managers and the media, they have not been extensively researched or characterized. In this collaborative study with water managers across the CRB, we propose a definition for these hard-to-predict, ultra-high precipitation events occurring during the late-snow or snowmelt season. This characterization provides a framework for quantifying the frequency and intensity of extreme dry-to-wet springtime transitions. Despite limitations of climate model simulations due to uncertainties and the inhomogeneous qualities, our findings suggest that such transitions may become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate. In view of the potentially wetter but less-snowy climate in the basin, the need for future research to more quantitatively assess these “miracle events” is emphasized.</p>","PeriodicalId":17234,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of The American Water Resources Association","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1752-1688.13204","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Unexpected and large spring precipitation events in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) that significantly alleviated an otherwise severe water shortage have been observed for over a century, such as the “Miracle May” of 2015. Although these events are often termed as “drought-busting” or “miracle events” by water managers and the media, they have not been extensively researched or characterized. In this collaborative study with water managers across the CRB, we propose a definition for these hard-to-predict, ultra-high precipitation events occurring during the late-snow or snowmelt season. This characterization provides a framework for quantifying the frequency and intensity of extreme dry-to-wet springtime transitions. Despite limitations of climate model simulations due to uncertainties and the inhomogeneous qualities, our findings suggest that such transitions may become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate. In view of the potentially wetter but less-snowy climate in the basin, the need for future research to more quantitatively assess these “miracle events” is emphasized.

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
我们能指望科罗拉多河流域出现旱情结束的 "奇迹 "吗?
一个多世纪以来,科罗拉多河流域(CRB)出现了意想不到的大规模春季降水事件,大大缓解了原本严重的缺水状况,例如 2015 年的 "奇迹五月"。尽管这些事件经常被水资源管理者和媒体称为 "干旱破坏 "或 "奇迹事件",但它们并没有得到广泛的研究或描述。在这项与整个 CRB 水资源管理者的合作研究中,我们为这些发生在晚雪期或融雪期的难以预测的超高降水事件提出了一个定义。这一定义为量化春季极端干旱到湿润过渡的频率和强度提供了一个框架。尽管气候模型模拟因不确定性和非均质性而存在局限性,但我们的研究结果表明,在气候变暖的情况下,这种过渡的频率和强度可能会降低。鉴于该流域的气候可能更加湿润但降雪量更少,我们强调今后的研究需要更加定量地评估这些 "奇迹事件"。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
Journal of The American Water Resources Association
Journal of The American Water Resources Association 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
100
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: JAWRA seeks to be the preeminent scholarly publication on multidisciplinary water resources issues. JAWRA papers present ideas derived from multiple disciplines woven together to give insight into a critical water issue, or are based primarily upon a single discipline with important applications to other disciplines. Papers often cover the topics of recent AWRA conferences such as riparian ecology, geographic information systems, adaptive management, and water policy. JAWRA authors present work within their disciplinary fields to a broader audience. Our Associate Editors and reviewers reflect this diversity to ensure a knowledgeable and fair review of a broad range of topics. We particularly encourage submissions of papers which impart a ''take home message'' our readers can use.
期刊最新文献
Issue Information Issue Information Evaluation of reported and unreported water uses in various sectors of the Potomac basin for the year 2017 Rapid geomorphic assessment walkabouts as a tool for stream mitigation monitoring Sources of seasonal water supply forecast uncertainty during snow drought in the Sierra Nevada
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1