Determining nexus between monetary policy transmission channels and GDP of Pakistan

Muneer Hussain, Shoaib Shah, Zohair Durrani, Mir Hassan
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Abstract

The purpose of this research is to analyze long run and short run relationship of monetary policy transmission channels with GDP of Pakistan and research contains four channels that are mentioned in SBP and variables representing those channels are. Exchange rate, imports, interest rate, SBP advances and KSE 100 index which are independent variables and the GDP is taken for output as dependent variable and annual data from 1991-2017 is used. The results shows that there is co-integration among variables and therefore VECM was applied which shows significant long run relationship of independent variables with GDP as well as there is short run relationship with GDP, also exchange rate is very volatile with GDP. Further model specification is also used and results are meeting with assumptions of econometrics
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确定巴基斯坦货币政策传导渠道与国内生产总值之间的关系
本研究的目的是分析货币政策传导渠道与巴基斯坦国内生产总值之间的长期和短期关系,研究内容包括《国民银行政策》中提到的四种渠道,代表这些渠道的变量有:汇率、进口、利率、国民银行预付款和 KSE 100 指数。汇率、进口、利率、SBP 预付款和 KSE 100 指数为自变量,GDP 为因变量,使用 1991-2017 年的年度数据。结果表明,变量之间存在协整关系,因此采用了 VECM,结果表明自变量与 GDP 之间存在显著的长期关系,与 GDP 之间也存在短期关系,而且汇率与 GDP 之间的波动性很大。还使用了进一步的模型规范,结果符合计量经济学的假设。
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