Application of Dynamic Structural Model to Identify Factors That Influence Capital Adjustments in The National Manufacturing Industry

Iwan Harsono, Jusatria, Rachmadi Indrapraja, Iwan Henri Kusnadi, Saeful Rohman
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Abstract

This research aims to determine the costs of capital adjustments and company dynamics. Company panels comprise the database. The main advantage of analyzing the nature of adjustment costs at the plant level is that the data contain information for purchases and sales of capital goods. Panel data, including information from many plants and long periods, allows for a more comprehensive analysis of firms' investment behavior in the face of capital adjustment costs. The estimation results allow for the recovery of companies' frictions in adjusting their capital stock. The estimation results for capital adjustment costs are consistent with other studies using similar methodologies. Estimates show that there are significant, unchangeable fixed costs, as well as moderate quadratic costs. Researchers then use the estimated parameters in a counterfactual simulation to analyze the impact of a decline in average firm profitability on the labor market. The results show a significant labor market response to the shock, with the transition to the new stable state being slow and taking several years to complete the adjustment. The simulations highlight the importance of not only modeling capital mobility but also considering and estimating its frictions to evaluate the impact of policies or shocks on the economy. The mobility and capital adjustment costs influence the speed of the economy's adjustment to shocks and their effects on factor allocation and remuneration in the short and long term.
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应用动态结构模型识别国家制造业资本调整的影响因素
本研究旨在确定资本调整的成本和公司动态。数据库由公司面板组成。在工厂层面分析调整成本性质的主要优势在于,这些数据包含了资本货物的采购和销售信息。面板数据包括来自许多工厂和较长时期的信息,可以更全面地分析企业在面对资本调整成本时的投资行为。估算结果可以恢复企业在调整资本存量时的摩擦。资本调整成本的估算结果与其他采用类似方法的研究结果一致。估算结果表明,存在大量不可改变的固定成本以及适度的二次成本。然后,研究人员利用估计参数进行反事实模拟,分析企业平均盈利能力下降对劳动力市场的影响。结果显示,劳动力市场对冲击的反应非常明显,向新稳定状态的过渡非常缓慢,需要数年时间才能完成调整。模拟结果突出表明,不仅要建立资本流动模型,还要考虑和估算资本流动的摩擦,以评估政策或冲击对经济的影响。流动性和资本调整成本会影响经济对冲击的调整速度及其对短期和长期要素分配和报酬的影响。
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