The Expected Dynamics for the Extreme Wind and Wave Conditions at the Mouths of the Danube River in Connection with the Navigation Hazards

Abstract

The entrance in the Sulina channel in the Black Sea is the target area of this study. This represents the southern gate of the seventh Pan-European transport corridor, and it is usually subjected to high navigation traffic. The main objective of the work is to provide a more comprehensive picture concerning the past and future expected dynamics of the environmental matrix in this coastal area, including especially the extreme wind and wave conditions in connection with the possible navigation risks. The methodology considered assumes analyses performed at three different levels. First, an analysis of some in situ measurements at the zero-kilometer point of the Danube is carried out for the 15-year period of 2009–2023. Together with the maximum wind speed and the maximum value of the wind gusts, the water level variation was analyzed at this point. As a second step, the analysis is based on wind speed data provided by regional climate models. Two periods, each spanning 30 years, are considered. These are the recent past (1976–2005), when comparisons with ERA5 reanalysis data were also performed, and the near future (2041–2070), when two different models and three climate scenarios were considered. The focus was on the extreme wind speed values, performing comparisons between the past and future expected extreme winds. Finally, the third analysis is related to the wave conditions. Thus, using as a forcing factor each of the wind fields that was previously analyzed, simulations employing a spectral wave model were carried out. The wave modeling system was focused using three different computational domains with increasing resolution towards the target area, and the nearshore wave conditions were evaluated. The results show that both the extreme wind and wave conditions are expected to slightly increase in the future. Especially in the wintertime, strong wind fields are often expected in this area, with wind gusts exceeding more than 70% of the hourly average wind velocity. With regard to the waves, due to the complex nearshore phenomena, considerable enhancements in terms of significant wave heights are induced, and there is also an elevated risk of the occurrence of rogue waves. This work is still ongoing, and taking into account the high navigation risks highlighted, the next step would be to elaborate the risk assessment of severe shipping conditions, particularly related to the likelihood or probability of adverse conditions with the potential of generating hazardous situations in this coastal environment.