Modeling and Predicting Passenger Load Factor in Air Transportation: A Deep Assessment Methodology with Fractional Calculus Approach Utilizing Reservation Data

Abstract

This study addresses the challenge of predicting the passenger load factor (PLF) in air transportation to optimize capacity management and revenue maximization. Leveraging historical reservation data from 19 Turkish Airlines market routes and sample flights, we propose a novel approach combining deep assessment methodology (DAM) with fractional calculus theory. By modeling the relationship between PLF and the number of days remaining until a flight, our method yields minimal errors compared to traditional techniques. Through a continuous curve constructed using the least-squares approach, we enable the anticipation of future flight values. Our analysis demonstrates that the DAM model with a first-order derivative outperforms linear techniques and the Fractional Model-3 in both modeling capabilities and prediction accuracy. The proposed approach offers a data-driven solution for efficiently managing air transport capacity, with implications for revenue optimization. Specifically, our modeling findings indicate that the DAM wd model improves prediction accuracy by approximately 0.67 times compared to the DAM model, surpassing the fractional model and regression analysis. For the DAM wd modeling method, the lowest average mean absolute percentage error (AMAPE) value achieved is 0.571, showcasing its effectiveness in forecasting flight outcomes.