Impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on NOx emissions: A sector-specific analysis of transportation and power generation

Abstract

To limit the transmission of COVID-19, a series of rigorous lockdown measures were implemented worldwide. These measures have caused a massive impact on the socio-economic conditions, especially on traffic flow as well as the demand for electricity. This study designs an integrated approach that incorporating an atmospheric dispersion model into a state-of-the-art traffic flow and power consumptions models to simulate the dispersion of the resultant emissions of NOx, considering the changes during the full and partial lockdown periods in comparison to the corresponding pre-pandemic period. This study is geographically focused on Kuwait, examining the impact of COVID-19 lockdown measures on NOx emissions within its transportation and power generation sectors. The results show that hourly averaged electricity generating decreased by 5.6% and 4.5% as a result of the partial lockdown and full lockdown respectively. Crude oil consumption increased from 12% to 27% during the partial lockdown, and rose to represent 20% as a result of the full lockdown. This is because power plants had to act quickly to secure supply chains and manage fuel inventory. More natural gas was consumed as a result of the partial lockdown, raising its share of total energy consumption to 57%. This resulted in a decrease of 14% and 36% in NOx emissions. Hotspots for NOx concentrations were observed over densely populated residential areas during the full lockdown period, since transportation-related emissions accounted for the bulk of NOx emissions during the full lockdown. In contrast, maximum NOx concentration hotspot for the partial lockdown period was observed in the vicinity of power plants. This sector-specific analysis provides insights into sustaining air quality gains by targeting interventions for transportation and energy use.