Timing and Toll: Europe’s Excess Mortality in the First Three Years of COVID-19

Abstract

This study examines excess mortality patterns in 32 European countries during the first three years of the pandemic, offering insights into the pandemic’s toll on each country. Using data from national statistical offices, we calculated monthly excess mortality for 2020–2022. Time series decomposition was employed for trend analysis, followed by clustering countries based on their mortality trends. Then we compared total excess mortality among different clusters. We found that neighboring countries with similar characteristics experienced comparable levels of excess mortality, regardless of the differences in their pandemic trajectories identified by cluster analysis. Other factors, such as healthcare infrastructure and pre-existing health risks, appear to have had a more significant impact on total excess mortality, with various pre-existing regional factors playing significant roles in shaping the pandemic’s final toll. While the timing of peak excess mortality may have been a factor, it was not the primary driver of the overall toll. This study highlights the critical need for comprehensive public health strategies that focus on reinforcing healthcare infrastructure and mitigating pre-existing health risks, essential for effective pandemic preparedness and response. These findings suggest the need for reevaluating current approaches and exploring alternative strategies for managing future health emergencies.