Variable Effects of Weather and Climate on Life Expectancy and Age-specific Mortality from Circulatory Diseases in the Regions of the Russian Federation

IF 0.6 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI:10.3103/s1068373924020080

G. G. Onishchenko, N. V. Zaitseva, S. V. Kleyn, M. V. Glukhikh, D. A. Kir’yanov, M. R. Kamaltdinov

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Abstract

Different regions and population groups are disproportionately affected by current climate changes. Their effects lead to the disadaptation of physiological reactions and increasing prevalence of some weather-dependent diseases. The objective of the present study is discovering the effects of observed changes in weather and climatic factors over the period 2010–2019 on the age-specific indicators of mortality from circulatory diseases and population life expectancy, as well as model prediction of factorial effects against the background of differentiation of the sanitary-epidemiologic and socioeconomic state of Russian regions. As the initial information, the authors used the official statistical data on the regions of the Russian Federation over the period 2010–2019 for 206 parameters of the habitat and lifestyle, including eight weather and climatic factors (monthly mean air temperatures, total precipitation for January and July, and deviations from normal for these parameters). The causal relationships between the habitat factors and age-specific mortality rates were investigated using 18 artificial neural networks (\(R^{2} < 0.75\)). The differentiated effects of the analyzed factors on life expectancy were identified, with maximum effects on the older population. The results of the studies should be taken into account in developing regional and federal programs on improving medical and demographic conditions and providing sanitary-epidemiologic, social, and economic wellbeing.

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天气和气候对俄罗斯联邦各地区循环系统疾病预期寿命和特定年龄死亡率的不同影响

摘要当前的气候变化对不同地区和人口群体的影响尤为严重。气候变化的影响导致生理反应失调，一些依赖天气的疾病发病率上升。本研究的目的是发现 2010-2019 年期间观察到的天气和气候因素变化对特定年龄段循环系统疾病死亡率指标和人口预期寿命的影响，以及在俄罗斯各地区卫生流行病学和社会经济状况不同的背景下对因素影响的模型预测。作为初始信息，作者使用了 2010-2019 年期间俄罗斯联邦各地区 206 项人居和生活方式参数的官方统计数据，其中包括 8 项天气和气候因素（月平均气温、1 月和 7 月总降水量以及这些参数的正常偏差）。使用18个人工神经网络（R^{2} <0.75）研究了栖息地因素与特定年龄死亡率之间的因果关系。确定了分析因素对预期寿命的不同影响，其中对老年人口的影响最大。在制定关于改善医疗和人口条件以及提供卫生-流行病学、社会和经济福利的地区和联邦方案时，应考虑到这些研究结果。

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来源期刊

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-

CiteScore

1.70

自引率

28.60%

发文量

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Russian Meteorology and Hydrology is a peer reviewed journal that covers topical issues of hydrometeorological science and practice: methods of forecasting weather and hydrological phenomena, climate monitoring issues, environmental pollution, space hydrometeorology, agrometeorology.