How Does Türkiye’s Cherry Production Respond to Climate Change?: a Panel Cointegration Analysis

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to sustainable agricultural production globally. In Türkiye, the agricultural sector holds paramount importance for the economy, but it faces substantial risks due to climate change. Cherry production is particularly vulnerable to these impacts, with Türkiye leading the world in both production amounts (690 thousand metric tonnes) and cultivation areas (82 thousand hectares) as of 2021. This study’s primary objective is to assess the influence of climate change on cherry production in ten Turkish provinces from 2004 to 2021, including İzmir, Bursa, Isparta, Afyon, Konya, Kütahya, Çanakkale, Manisa, Denizli, and Amasya. A panel cointegration approach employing the AMG estimator confirmed the presence of cointegration relationships among the variables. The analysis revealed that climatic dynamics (rising rainfall and temperature) had detrimental long-run impacts on the primary cherry-producing regions. Temperature increases led to substantial decreases in cherry production, with a factor of 52, while higher rainfall levels reduced production by nearly 0.20 times. Among individual cities, temperature negatively impacted cherry production in Amasya (86 times), Kütahya (92 times), Manisa (74 times), and İzmir (189 times). Bursa, Isparta, Konya, and Çanakkale exhibited negative coefficients for temperature but lacked statistical significance. In terms of rainfall, eight out of ten cities experienced negative effects, with statistical significance observed in only Bursa (0.43), Isparta (0.50), and İzmir (0.44). However, Afyon and Denizli displayed positive coefficients without statistical significance.