Follow the leader? The long-run interaction between public and private sector wage growth in the UK

IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Economica Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI:10.1111/ecca.12525
Peter Dolton, Arno Hantzsche
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Abstract

With one-fifth of the UK labour force employed in the public sector, public sector pay and its interaction with private sector pay is an important driver of the macroeconomy. Using new data on sector-level earnings and sector–industry-level pay settlements, this paper addresses the fundamental question of which sector leads and which follows in terms of earnings determination. We find that in the long run, public sector wages adjust to wages set in the private sector, maintaining a consistent relationship. We further find that there can be significant wage spillovers from the public sector to the private sector in the short run. These tend to be more pronounced for private sector industries that are domestically facing, characterized by low worker bargaining power, or reliant on public sector inputs. This paper's findings have important implications for macroeconomic policy that aims to balance inflationary forces and fiscal funding pressures.

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追随领导者?英国公共部门和私营部门工资增长之间的长期互动关系
英国五分之一的劳动力受雇于公共部门,因此公共部门薪酬及其与私营部门薪酬之间的互动是宏观经济的重要驱动力。本文利用部门一级收入和部门-行业一级薪酬结算的新数据,探讨了在收入决定方面哪个部门领先、哪个部门跟随的基本问题。我们发现,从长期来看,公共部门的工资会根据私营部门的工资水平进行调整,并保持一致的关系。我们还发现,在短期内,公共部门的工资会显著外溢到私营部门。对于面向国内、工人议价能力低或依赖公共部门投入的私营部门行业,这种溢出效应往往更为明显。本文的研究结果对旨在平衡通胀力量和财政资金压力的宏观经济政策具有重要意义。
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来源期刊
Economica
Economica ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
2.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
49
审稿时长
5 weeks
期刊介绍: Economica is an international journal devoted to research in all branches of economics. Theoretical and empirical articles are welcome from all parts of the international research community. Economica is a leading economics journal, appearing high in the published citation rankings. In addition to the main papers which make up each issue, there is an extensive review section, covering a wide range of recently published titles at all levels.
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