Does gentrification constrain housing markets for low-income households? Evidence from household residential mobility in the New York and San Francisco metropolitan areas

Abstract

This research investigates whether gentrification restricts housing markets for low-income households by focussing on the New York and San Francisco metropolitan areas from 2013 to 2019. We investigate whether gentrification correlates with increased out-migration and decreased in-migration of low-income residents in affected neighbourhoods, and how it shapes where out-movers relocate. We leverage a unique longitudinal dataset to compare two extreme regional contexts characterised by significant affordability challenges and intense housing regulations. By doing so, this study aims to provide a more refined understanding of gentrification and residential mobility dynamics, avoiding broad generalisations or a narrow focus on single metropolitan contexts. The findings indicate that in both regions, low-income households are indeed more likely to leave gentrifying neighbourhoods compared to non-gentrifying ones and less likely to enter them compared to higher-income households. The study also finds mixed results regarding the subsequent residential situations of these low-income movers. Based on these findings, we provide implications for research and policies oriented towards improving housing and neighbourhood access for low-income households in rapidly changing urban areas.