Impact of social media posts’ characteristics on movie performance prior to release: an explainable machine learning approach

IF 3.7 4区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS Electronic Commerce Research Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI:10.1007/s10660-024-09852-3
Ismail Abdulrashid, Ibrahim Said Ahmad, Aminu Musa, Mohammed Khalafalla
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Abstract

In the era of invasive social media and advanced artificial intelligence, sentiment analysis has become a vital tool for e-commerce and businesses to grasp user needs and monitor brand perception. This is particularly relevant in the film industry, where understanding the determinants of a movie’s pre-release performance is crucial for producers and investors. Traditional methods often rely on complex algorithms that lack transparency in elucidating the relationship between key risk factors and movie outcomes. This study addresses this gap by employing an explainable analytics framework to investigate the impact of various social media post characteristics on movie performance before its release. Initially, an exploratory data analysis was undertaken to identify significant risk factors associated with movie failures. Subsequently, the study segmented the analysis into three risk categories—low, moderate, and high risk—and applied conventional machine learning models to forecast the likelihood of failure within each category. The culmination of this research involved the application of a SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) model, which provided insightful interpretations of how different risk factors contribute to the potential success or failure of movies. By integrating SHAP for interpretability, this research offers novel insights into the predictive dynamics of movie performance, paving the way for informed decision-making in the film industry.

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社交媒体帖子特征对电影上映前表现的影响:一种可解释的机器学习方法
在社交媒体和先进的人工智能大行其道的时代,情感分析已成为电子商务和企业把握用户需求、监测品牌认知的重要工具。这一点在电影行业尤为重要,因为了解电影上映前表现的决定因素对于制片人和投资者来说至关重要。传统方法通常依赖于复杂的算法,在阐明关键风险因素与电影结果之间的关系方面缺乏透明度。本研究采用可解释分析框架来研究各种社交媒体帖子特征对电影上映前表现的影响,从而弥补了这一不足。首先,研究人员进行了探索性数据分析,以确定与电影失败相关的重要风险因素。随后,研究将分析细分为三个风险类别--低风险、中等风险和高风险--并应用传统的机器学习模型来预测每个类别中失败的可能性。这项研究的最终成果是应用了 SHapley Additive exPlanation(SHAP)模型,该模型对不同风险因素如何促成电影的潜在成功或失败进行了深入解读。通过整合 SHAP 的可解释性,这项研究为电影表现的预测动态提供了新的见解,为电影业的明智决策铺平了道路。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
12.80%
发文量
99
期刊介绍: The Internet and the World Wide Web have brought a fundamental change in the way that individuals access data, information and services. Individuals have access to vast amounts of data, to experts and services that are not limited in time or space. This has forced business to change the way in which they conduct their commercial transactions with their end customers and with other businesses, resulting in the development of a global market through the Internet. The emergence of the Internet and electronic commerce raises many new research issues. The Electronic Commerce Research journal will serve as a forum for stimulating and disseminating research into all facets of electronic commerce - from research into core enabling technologies to work on assessing and understanding the implications of these technologies on societies, economies, businesses and individuals. The journal concentrates on theoretical as well as empirical research that leads to better understanding of electronic commerce and its implications. Topics covered by the journal include, but are not restricted to the following subjects as they relate to the Internet and electronic commerce: Dissemination of services through the Internet;Intelligent agents technologies and their impact;The global impact of electronic commerce;The economics of electronic commerce;Fraud reduction on the Internet;Mobile electronic commerce;Virtual electronic commerce systems;Application of computer and communication technologies to electronic commerce;Electronic market mechanisms and their impact;Auctioning over the Internet;Business models of Internet based companies;Service creation and provisioning;The job market created by the Internet and electronic commerce;Security, privacy, authorization and authentication of users and transactions on the Internet;Electronic data interc hange over the Internet;Electronic payment systems and electronic funds transfer;The impact of electronic commerce on organizational structures and processes;Supply chain management through the Internet;Marketing on the Internet;User adaptive advertisement;Standards in electronic commerce and their analysis;Metrics, measurement and prediction of user activity;On-line stock markets and financial trading;User devices for accessing the Internet and conducting electronic transactions;Efficient search techniques and engines on the WWW;Web based languages (e.g., HTML, XML, VRML, Java);Multimedia storage and distribution;Internet;Collaborative learning, gaming and work;Presentation page design techniques and tools;Virtual reality on the net and 3D visualization;Browsers and user interfaces;Web site management techniques and tools;Managing middleware to support electronic commerce;Web based education, and training;Electronic journals and publishing on the Internet;Legal issues, taxation and property rights;Modeling and design of networks to support Internet applications;Modeling, design and sizing of web site servers;Reliability of intensive on-line applications;Pervasive devices and pervasive computing in electronic commerce;Workflow for electronic commerce applications;Coordination technologies for electronic commerce;Personalization and mass customization technologies;Marketing and customer relationship management in electronic commerce;Service creation and provisioning. Audience: Academics and professionals involved in electronic commerce research and the application and use of the Internet. Managers, consultants, decision-makers and developers who value the use of electronic com merce research results. Special Issues: Electronic Commerce Research publishes from time to time a special issue of the devoted to a single subject area. If interested in serving as a guest editor for a special issue, please contact the Editor-in-Chief J. Christopher Westland at westland@uic.edu with a proposal for the special issue. Officially cited as: Electron Commer Res
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