An efficient, multi-scale neighbourhood index to quantify wildfire likelihood

IF 2.9 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY International Journal of Wildland Fire Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI:10.1071/wf23055
Douglas A. G. Radford, Holger R. Maier, Hedwig van Delden, Aaron C. Zecchin, Amelie Jeanneau
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

To effectively reduce future wildfire risk, several management strategies must be evaluated under plausible future scenarios, requiring models that provide estimates of how likely wildfires are to spread to community assets (wildfire likelihood) in a computationally efficient manner. Approaches to quantifying wildfire likelihood using fire simulation models cannot practically achieve this because they are too computationally expensive.

Aim

This study aimed to develop an approach for quantifying wildfire likelihood that is both computationally efficient and able to consider contagious and directionally specific fire behaviour properties across multiple spatial ‘neighbourhood’ scales.

Methods

A novel, computationally efficient index for quantifying wildfire likelihood is proposed. This index is evaluated against historical and simulated data on a case study in South Australia.

Key results

The neighbourhood index explains historical burnt areas and closely replicates patterns in burn probability calculated using landscape fire simulation (ρ = 0.83), while requiring 99.7% less computational time than the simulation-based model.

Conclusions

The neighbourhood index represents patterns in wildfire likelihood similar to those represented in burn probability, with a much-reduced computational time.

Implications

By using the index alongside existing approaches, managers can better explore problems involving many evaluations of wildfire likelihood, thereby improving planning processes and reducing future wildfire risks.

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量化野火可能性的高效、多尺度邻域指数
背景为了有效降低未来的野火风险,必须在可信的未来情景下对几种管理策略进行评估,这就要求模型能够以计算效率高的方式估算野火蔓延到社区资产的可能性(野火可能性)。使用火灾模拟模型量化野火可能性的方法实际上无法实现这一目标,因为它们的计算成本太高。目的本研究旨在开发一种量化野火可能性的方法,这种方法既能提高计算效率,又能考虑多个空间 "邻里 "尺度上的传染性和特定方向的火灾行为特性。方法 提出了一种新颖、计算效率高的野火可能性量化指数。根据南澳大利亚案例研究的历史数据和模拟数据对该指数进行了评估。主要结果邻近指数解释了历史上的烧毁区域,并密切复制了利用景观火灾模拟计算出的烧毁概率模式(ρ = 0.83),同时所需的计算时间比基于模拟的模型少 99.7%。结论邻近指数所代表的野火可能性模式与燃烧概率所代表的模式相似,但计算时间大大缩短。意义通过将邻近指数与现有方法结合使用,管理人员可以更好地探索涉及野火可能性评估的问题,从而改进规划流程并降低未来的野火风险。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
9.70%
发文量
67
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: International Journal of Wildland Fire publishes new and significant articles that advance basic and applied research concerning wildland fire. Published papers aim to assist in the understanding of the basic principles of fire as a process, its ecological impact at the stand level and the landscape level, modelling fire and its effects, as well as presenting information on how to effectively and efficiently manage fire. The journal has an international perspective, since wildland fire plays a major social, economic and ecological role around the globe. The International Journal of Wildland Fire is published on behalf of the International Association of Wildland Fire.
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