{"title":"Defining management strategies for acute severe ulcerative colitis using predictive models: a simulation-modeling study.","authors":"Danny Con, Peter De Cruz","doi":"10.5217/ir.2023.00175","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background/aims: </strong>Robust management algorithms are required to reduce the residual risk of colectomy in acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) refractory to standard infliximab salvage therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance and benefits of alternative ASUC management strategies using simulated prediction models of varying accuracy.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This was a simulation-based modeling study using a hypothetical cohort of 5,000 steroid-refractory ASUC patients receiving standard infliximab induction. Simulated predictive models were used to risk-stratify patients and escalate treatment in patients at high risk of failing standard infliximab induction. The main outcome of interest was colectomy by 3 months.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The 3-month colectomy rate in the base scenario where all 5,000 patients received standard infliximab induction was 23%. The best-performing management strategy assigned high-risk patients to sequential Janus kinase inhibitor inhibition and mediumrisk patients to accelerated infliximab induction. Using a 90% area under the curve (AUC) prediction model and optimistic treatment efficacy assumptions, this strategy reduced the 3-month colectomy rate to 8% (65% residual risk reduction). Using an 80% AUC prediction model with only modest treatment efficacy assumptions, the 3-month colectomy rate was reduced to 15% (35% residual risk reduction). Overall management strategy efficacy was highly dependent on predictive model accuracy and underlying treatment efficacy assumptions.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This is the first study to simulate predictive model-based management strategies in steroid-refractory ASUC and evaluate their effect on short-term colectomy rates. Future studies on predictive model development should incorporate simulation studies to better understand their expected benefit.</p>","PeriodicalId":14481,"journal":{"name":"Intestinal Research","volume":" ","pages":"439-452"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11534451/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Intestinal Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5217/ir.2023.00175","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/5/7 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background/aims: Robust management algorithms are required to reduce the residual risk of colectomy in acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) refractory to standard infliximab salvage therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance and benefits of alternative ASUC management strategies using simulated prediction models of varying accuracy.
Methods: This was a simulation-based modeling study using a hypothetical cohort of 5,000 steroid-refractory ASUC patients receiving standard infliximab induction. Simulated predictive models were used to risk-stratify patients and escalate treatment in patients at high risk of failing standard infliximab induction. The main outcome of interest was colectomy by 3 months.
Results: The 3-month colectomy rate in the base scenario where all 5,000 patients received standard infliximab induction was 23%. The best-performing management strategy assigned high-risk patients to sequential Janus kinase inhibitor inhibition and mediumrisk patients to accelerated infliximab induction. Using a 90% area under the curve (AUC) prediction model and optimistic treatment efficacy assumptions, this strategy reduced the 3-month colectomy rate to 8% (65% residual risk reduction). Using an 80% AUC prediction model with only modest treatment efficacy assumptions, the 3-month colectomy rate was reduced to 15% (35% residual risk reduction). Overall management strategy efficacy was highly dependent on predictive model accuracy and underlying treatment efficacy assumptions.
Conclusions: This is the first study to simulate predictive model-based management strategies in steroid-refractory ASUC and evaluate their effect on short-term colectomy rates. Future studies on predictive model development should incorporate simulation studies to better understand their expected benefit.
期刊介绍:
Intestinal Research (Intest Res) is the joint official publication of the Asian Organization for Crohn''s and Colitis (AOCC), Chinese Society of IBD (CSIBD), Japanese Society for IBD (JSIBD), Korean Association for the Study of Intestinal Diseases (KASID), Taiwan Society of IBD (TSIBD) and Colitis Crohn''s Foundation (India) (CCF, india). The aim of the Journal is to provide broad and in-depth analysis of intestinal diseases, especially inflammatory bowel disease, which shows increasing tendency and significance. As a Journal specialized in clinical and translational research in gastroenterology, it encompasses multiple aspects of diseases originated from the small and large intestines. The Journal also seeks to propagate and exchange useful innovations, both in ideas and in practice, within the research community. As a mode of scholarly communication, it encourages scientific investigation through the rigorous peer-review system and constitutes a qualified and continual platform for sharing studies of researchers and practitioners. Specifically, the Journal presents up-to-date coverage of medical researches on the physiology, epidemiology, pathophysiology, clinical presentations, and therapeutic interventions of the intestinal diseases. General topics of interest include inflammatory bowel disease, colon and small intestine cancer or polyp, endoscopy, irritable bowel syndrome and other motility disorders, infectious enterocolitis, intestinal tuberculosis, and so forth. The Journal publishes diverse types of academic materials such as editorials, clinical and basic reviews, original articles, case reports, letters to the editor, brief communications, perspective, statement or commentary, and images that are useful to clinicians and researchers.