From past habitats to present threats: tracing North American weasel distributions through a century of climate and land use change

IF 4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Landscape Ecology Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI:10.1007/s10980-024-01902-3
Amanda E. Cheeseman, David S. Jachowski, Roland Kays
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Abstract

Context

Shifts in climate and land use have dramatically reshaped ecosystems, impacting the distribution and status of wildlife populations. For many species, data gaps limit inference regarding population trends and links to environmental change. This deficiency hinders our ability to enact meaningful conservation measures to protect at risk species.

Objectives

We investigated historical drivers of environmental niche change for three North American weasel species (American ermine, least weasel, and long-tailed weasel) to understand their response to environmental change.

Methods

Using species occurrence records and corresponding environmental data, we developed species-specific environmental niche models for the contiguous United States (1938–2021). We generated annual hindcasted predictions of the species’ environmental niche, assessing changes in distribution, area, and fragmentation in response to environmental change.

Results

We identified a 54% decline in suitable habitat alongside high levels of fragmentation for least weasels and region-specific trends for American ermine and long-tailed weasels; declines in the West and increased suitability in the East. Climate and land use were important predictors of the environmental niche for all species. Changes in habitat amount and distribution reflected widespread land use changes over the past century while declines in southern and low-elevation areas are consistent with impacts from climatic change.

Conclusions

Our models uncovered land use and climatic change as potential historic drivers of population change for North American weasels and provide a basis for management recommendations and targeted survey efforts. We identified potentially at-risk populations and a need for landscape-level planning to support weasel populations amid ongoing environmental changes.

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从过去的栖息地到现在的威胁:通过一个世纪的气候和土地利用变化追踪北美黄鼠狼的分布情况
背景气候和土地利用的变化极大地改变了生态系统,影响了野生动物种群的分布和状况。对于许多物种来说,数据缺口限制了对种群趋势以及与环境变化之间联系的推断。我们调查了三种北美黄鼬(美洲狐鼬、小黄鼬和长尾黄鼬)环境生态位变化的历史驱动因素,以了解它们对环境变化的反应。方法利用物种出现记录和相应的环境数据,我们为美国毗连地区(1938-2021 年)开发了特定物种的环境生态位模型。结果我们发现最小黄鼠狼的适宜栖息地减少了 54%,同时破碎化程度较高;美洲朱鼠和长尾黄鼠狼的适宜栖息地呈地区性趋势;西部地区适宜栖息地减少,东部地区适宜栖息地增加。气候和土地利用是预测所有物种环境生态位的重要因素。栖息地数量和分布的变化反映了过去一个世纪中广泛的土地利用变化,而南部和低海拔地区栖息地数量的减少与气候变化的影响是一致的。我们发现了潜在的濒危种群,以及在持续的环境变化中支持黄鼠狼种群的景观规划需求。
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来源期刊
Landscape Ecology
Landscape Ecology 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
8.30
自引率
7.70%
发文量
164
审稿时长
8-16 weeks
期刊介绍: Landscape Ecology is the flagship journal of a well-established and rapidly developing interdisciplinary science that focuses explicitly on the ecological understanding of spatial heterogeneity. Landscape Ecology draws together expertise from both biophysical and socioeconomic sciences to explore basic and applied research questions concerning the ecology, conservation, management, design/planning, and sustainability of landscapes as coupled human-environment systems. Landscape ecology studies are characterized by spatially explicit methods in which spatial attributes and arrangements of landscape elements are directly analyzed and related to ecological processes.
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