Assessment of the Kolyma Runoff under Current Climate Changes

IF 0.9 4区环境科学与生态学 Q4 WATER RESOURCES Water Resources Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI:10.1134/s0097807823700513

A. A. Lisina, I. N. Krylenko, A. S. Kalugin, Yu. G. Motovilov, A. A. Sazonov, N. L. Frolova

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Abstract

The Kolyma is the largest river, the basin of which lies entirely in the zone of continuous permafrost and is subject to considerable climate changes, which affects its hydrological regime. The current dynamics of water flow and runoff-formation factors over 1979–2020 are analyzed, and the sensitivity of water regime characteristics of the Kolyma River to changes in climate parameters is studied. The comparison of the mean values of meteorological characteristics in the Kolyma basin over 2000–2020 with the mean values over 1979–1999 showed an increase in the normal annual air temperature by 1.3°C, the total annual precipitation increased by 8.3% with the most abrupt increase in September and March. According to observation data, the annual river runoff at the Kolymskoe gage (283 km from the Kolyma mouth), increased by 5.2%. Physical-mathematical models of river runoff formation have gained in popularity as a tool for studying the features of the water regime and its dynamics. In this study, the ECOMAG model is applied to the Kolyma R. basin, where its calibration and verification for two gages showed a good reproducibility of the actual water discharges. To better understand the mechanisms of the response of Kolyma water regime to changes in the climate characteristics based on ECOMAG model, the sensitivity of runoff characteristics to air temperature and precipitation was analyzed.

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当前气候变化下的科雷马河径流评估

摘要科雷马河是世界上最大的河流，其流域完全位于连续冻土带上，受气候变化的影响很大。本文分析了 1979-2020 年间水流量和径流形成因子的当前动态，并研究了科雷马河水文特征对气候参数变化的敏感性。2000-2020 年科雷马河流域气象特征平均值与 1979-1999 年平均值的比较显示，正常年气温上升了 1.3°C，年降水总量增加了 8.3%，其中 9 月和 3 月的增幅最大。根据观测数据，科里姆斯科水文站（距科里马河口 283 公里）的河流年径流量增加了 5.2%。河川径流形成的物理数学模型作为研究水系特征及其动态的工具越来越受欢迎。在这项研究中，ECOMAG 模型被应用于科雷马河流域，其对两个水文站的校准和验证表明，该模型与实际排水量具有良好的再现性。为了在 ECOMAG 模型的基础上更好地理解科雷马水系对气候特征变化的响应机制，分析了径流特征对气温和降水的敏感性。

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来源期刊

Water Resources 环境科学-水资源

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

20.00%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Water Resources is a journal that publishes articles on the assessment of water resources, integrated water resource use, water quality, and environmental protection. The journal covers many areas of research, including prediction of variations in continental water resources and regime; hydrophysical, hydrodynamic, hydrochemical and hydrobiological processes, environmental aspects of water quality and protection; economic, social, and legal aspects of water-resource development; and experimental methods of studies.