T. I. Zabortceva, G. B. Dugarova, O. V. Evstropieva, O. V. Gagarinova, O. A. Ignatova, P. V. Rogov
{"title":"Predictive Assessment of Socioeconomic Damage to Coastal Areas of Irkutsk Oblast as a Result of Lake Baikal Level Fluctuations","authors":"T. I. Zabortceva, G. B. Dugarova, O. V. Evstropieva, O. V. Gagarinova, O. A. Ignatova, P. V. Rogov","doi":"10.1134/s1875372823040145","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>This paper presents for the first time the results of practice-oriented investigations for determining the magnitude of socioeconomic damage to coastal areas of Lake Baikal as a result of the highest rise of its level (457.85 m according to the Pacific Reference Frame). The study area includes the coastal areas of Baikal and some areas of the Irkutsk reservoir of Irkutsk oblast within the Slyudyansky, Irkutsky, and Olkhonsky administrative districts. When compiling the list of sites falling within the zone of potential submergence, we used the open public database of the Unified State Registry of Real Estate and a package of working large-scale cartographic products and images. Expeditions made it possible to update, correct, and complement the working registry. The list of economic facilities and infrastructure (about 200) falling within the zone of potential submergence, includes line structures, enterprises of social services, and households. A calculation of economic damage to facilities of socioeconomic activity is presented using recommended technique of assessing probable damage from the harmful effect of water and assessing the effectiveness of preventive hydroeconomic measures (as of the year 2006). The amount of damage (to facilities and main sectoral groups) is corrected using the deflator index (as of 2022 in the “construction” position in Irkutsk oblast)). Potential losses (lost profit) are illustrated by the example of recreational activity on the shores of Baikal within the boundaries of Irkutsk oblast. The possible considerable losses have been revealed in the recreational sphere as a result of direct damage to facilities and infrastructure, as well as lost profits due to a loss of attractiveness of coastal areas, including beach zones. A preliminary quantitative assessment of socioeconomic damage to coastal administrative districts of Irkutsk oblast as a result of water level fluctuations in Lake Baikal and the Irkutsk reservoir may well provide a basis for developing program-strategic directions and measures and for seeking managerial decisions of a preventive nature for minimizing negative impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":44739,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Natural Resources","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geography and Natural Resources","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1134/s1875372823040145","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This paper presents for the first time the results of practice-oriented investigations for determining the magnitude of socioeconomic damage to coastal areas of Lake Baikal as a result of the highest rise of its level (457.85 m according to the Pacific Reference Frame). The study area includes the coastal areas of Baikal and some areas of the Irkutsk reservoir of Irkutsk oblast within the Slyudyansky, Irkutsky, and Olkhonsky administrative districts. When compiling the list of sites falling within the zone of potential submergence, we used the open public database of the Unified State Registry of Real Estate and a package of working large-scale cartographic products and images. Expeditions made it possible to update, correct, and complement the working registry. The list of economic facilities and infrastructure (about 200) falling within the zone of potential submergence, includes line structures, enterprises of social services, and households. A calculation of economic damage to facilities of socioeconomic activity is presented using recommended technique of assessing probable damage from the harmful effect of water and assessing the effectiveness of preventive hydroeconomic measures (as of the year 2006). The amount of damage (to facilities and main sectoral groups) is corrected using the deflator index (as of 2022 in the “construction” position in Irkutsk oblast)). Potential losses (lost profit) are illustrated by the example of recreational activity on the shores of Baikal within the boundaries of Irkutsk oblast. The possible considerable losses have been revealed in the recreational sphere as a result of direct damage to facilities and infrastructure, as well as lost profits due to a loss of attractiveness of coastal areas, including beach zones. A preliminary quantitative assessment of socioeconomic damage to coastal administrative districts of Irkutsk oblast as a result of water level fluctuations in Lake Baikal and the Irkutsk reservoir may well provide a basis for developing program-strategic directions and measures and for seeking managerial decisions of a preventive nature for minimizing negative impacts.
期刊介绍：
Geography and Natural Resources publishes information on research results in the field of geographical studies of nature, the economy, and the population. It provides ample coverage of the geographical aspects related to solving major economic problems, with special emphasis on regional nature management and environmental protection, geographical forecasting, integral regional research developments, modelling of natural processes, and on the advancement of mapping techniques. The journal publishes contributions on monitoring studies, geographical research abroad, as well as discussions on the theory of science.
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