Transborder spillover effects of poverty on crime: Applying spatial econometric models to Chinese data

IF 5.2 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS 中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102178
Xiaoshan Hu , Jie Song , Guanghua Wan
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Abstract

“Poverty is the mother of crime”, but existing literature has not yet analyzed the effect of local poverty on crimes in other jurisdictions. Based on 1992–2012 provincial data from China, this paper examines the transborder effects of poverty on crimes, by estimating spatial econometric models. Poverty is found to not only increase local crime, but also raise crime rates in other provinces. This spillover effect is more pronounced between provinces with close geographical proximity, high labor mobility and high dialect similarity. In addition, we compare the effects of increased police spending versus Dibao on poverty-related local and transborder crimes, finding that both can reduce poverty-related local crimes, but only Dibao can reduce poverty-related transborder crimes. The main policy implications of this paper are twofold. First, poverty alleviation can address both the symptoms and the root causes of local and external crimes, with broader and lasting effects than raising police spending. Thus, cross-border resource transfers shall target poverty alleviation; Second, poverty alleviation is not only a concern of the poor areas, but also a challenge for relatively developed areas in terms of crime governance.

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贫困对犯罪的跨境溢出效应:将空间计量经济模型应用于中国数据
"贫困是犯罪之母",但现有文献尚未分析本地贫困对其他辖区犯罪的影响。本文基于 1992-2012 年中国各省数据,通过空间计量经济模型估计,研究了贫困对犯罪的跨境影响。研究发现,贫困不仅会增加当地的犯罪率,还会提高其他省份的犯罪率。这种溢出效应在地理位置邻近、劳动力流动性大和方言相似度高的省份之间更为明显。此外,我们还比较了增加警力支出和迪堡计划对与贫困相关的本地犯罪和跨境犯罪的影响,发现两者都能减少与贫困相关的本地犯罪,但只有迪堡计划能减少与贫困相关的跨境犯罪。本文的主要政策含义有两个方面。首先,扶贫可以标本兼治地减少本地和境外犯罪,其效果比提高警力支出更广泛、更持久。因此,跨境资源转移应以扶贫为目标;其次,扶贫不仅是贫困地区关注的问题,也是相对发达地区在犯罪治理方面面临的挑战。
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来源期刊
中国经济评论
中国经济评论 ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
10.60
自引率
4.40%
发文量
380
期刊介绍: The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.
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