Pub Date : 2025-02-16DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102370
Xu Shao , Qicheng Yang , Zhao Liu
The paper focuses on exploring the impact of China's production-oriented aid projects on bilateral trade between China and Africa. By matching data from AidData, Eora Global MRIO, World Development Indicators (WDI), and CEPII Remote Database, regression results indicate that China's aid model significantly promotes sustainable growth in China-Africa bilateral trade. In the mechanism analysis, it is revealed that aid enhances African countries' autonomous trade capabilities across national, industrial, and product dimensions, thereby fostering the growth of bilateral trade between China and Africa, highlighting China's aid to Africa as development-oriented. Heterogeneity test results demonstrate that the positive effects of aid are more pronounced in African countries with high political stability, convergent values, and strong cooperative consensus. Unlike previous studies that overlook production-oriented aid projects, this paper delves into this dimension, offering novel insights into the effectiveness of non-standardized aid forms.
{"title":"China's aid-giving modalities: Impacts on sustainable growth in China-Africa trade","authors":"Xu Shao , Qicheng Yang , Zhao Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102370","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102370","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper focuses on exploring the impact of China's production-oriented aid projects on bilateral trade between China and Africa. By matching data from AidData, Eora Global MRIO, World Development Indicators (WDI), and CEPII Remote Database, regression results indicate that China's aid model significantly promotes sustainable growth in China-Africa bilateral trade. In the mechanism analysis, it is revealed that aid enhances African countries' autonomous trade capabilities across national, industrial, and product dimensions, thereby fostering the growth of bilateral trade between China and Africa, highlighting China's aid to Africa as development-oriented. Heterogeneity test results demonstrate that the positive effects of aid are more pronounced in African countries with high political stability, convergent values, and strong cooperative consensus. Unlike previous studies that overlook production-oriented aid projects, this paper delves into this dimension, offering novel insights into the effectiveness of non-standardized aid forms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102370"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-15DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102362
Jing Hang , Miaojun Wang , Mohan Zhou
Inefficient environmental regulations can lead to a misallocation of abatement efforts among firms, resulting in a loss of aggregate productivity. Beginning in 2006, the Chinese central government adopted a top-down approach to incentivize local officials to combat pollution through the “cadre evaluation system”, resulting in a significant emission reduction. This paper assesses the productivity implications stemming from the misallocation of abatement efforts due to this drastic regulation tightening. Utilizing data from Chinese manufacturing firms spanning the years 2000 to 2009, we document a significant increase in the dispersion of regulation intensity across firms. Through a structural accounting framework, we find that the misallocation of abatement efforts among firms (holding total emission constant) resulted in a 1.8% decrease in manufacturing total factor productivity (TFP) during the years 2006 to 2009, compared to the period before the regulation tightening.
{"title":"Productivity implications of inefficient environmental regulation: Evidence from China","authors":"Jing Hang , Miaojun Wang , Mohan Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102362","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102362","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Inefficient environmental regulations can lead to a misallocation of abatement efforts among firms, resulting in a loss of aggregate productivity. Beginning in 2006, the Chinese central government adopted a top-down approach to incentivize local officials to combat pollution through the “cadre evaluation system”, resulting in a significant emission reduction. This paper assesses the productivity implications stemming from the misallocation of abatement efforts due to this drastic regulation tightening. Utilizing data from Chinese manufacturing firms spanning the years 2000 to 2009, we document a significant increase in the dispersion of regulation intensity across firms. Through a structural accounting framework, we find that the misallocation of abatement efforts among firms (holding total emission constant) resulted in a 1.8% decrease in manufacturing total factor productivity (TFP) during the years 2006 to 2009, compared to the period before the regulation tightening.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102362"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143430084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-13DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102369
Qingfeng Cao , Pengfei Ni , Jing Guo
Using the “Broadband China” strategy as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ the difference-in-differences model to examine the impact of broadband internet on the income inequality among the floating population based on the panel data of 35 major cities in China from 2011 to 2018. We find that broadband internet significantly widens the income inequality among the floating population. This conclusion still holds after robust tests including parallel trends, placebo, endogeneity, and treatment effects heterogeneity. The mechanism analysis indicates that broadband internet widens income gap between the high-skilled and low-skilled floating population, as well as between the urban and non-urban registered household floating population, but does not substitute for labor. Further analysis shows that broadband internet leads to skill-biased technological progress rather than routine-biased technological progress, has a greater effect on widening the income inequality among the inter-province, established and young floating population, and represents a Pareto improvement for the floating population's welfare.
{"title":"Broadband internet and income inequality among the floating population: Evidence from the “broadband China” strategy in China","authors":"Qingfeng Cao , Pengfei Ni , Jing Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102369","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102369","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the “Broadband China” strategy as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ the difference-in-differences model to examine the impact of broadband internet on the income inequality among the floating population based on the panel data of 35 major cities in China from 2011 to 2018. We find that broadband internet significantly widens the income inequality among the floating population. This conclusion still holds after robust tests including parallel trends, placebo, endogeneity, and treatment effects heterogeneity. The mechanism analysis indicates that broadband internet widens income gap between the high-skilled and low-skilled floating population, as well as between the urban and non-urban registered household floating population, but does not substitute for labor. Further analysis shows that broadband internet leads to skill-biased technological progress rather than routine-biased technological progress, has a greater effect on widening the income inequality among the inter-province, established and young floating population, and represents a Pareto improvement for the floating population's welfare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102369"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143421764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-13DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102365
Houqi Shen , Yuanmeng Zhang , Mingzhe Wang , Yumeng Lei
Protected areas have become one of the most important tools for ecosystem restoration, yet their multiple benefits have not been fully recognized. This study focuses on the multiple benefits of China's most influential protected areas policies—the National Key Ecological Function Areas (NKEFAs). Using multiple county-level datasets in China, we employ the staggered Difference-in-Differences method to empirically examine the economic and ecological impacts of NKEFAs. Our findings show that the establishment of NKEFAs significantly promotes local economic growth and ecological conservation, with these benefits intensifying over time. Mechanism analysis reveals that spatial agglomeration, economies of scale, industrial structure optimization, and ecological fiscal transfers are crucial drivers in achieving dual benefits. Furthermore, NKEFAs accelerates economic growth in poverty-stricken areas, though regions with high human activity face challenges in achieving ecological improvements. We also highlight the differences in impact between types of ecological function, with areas designated for windbreak and sand fixation, and water source conservation, struggling to achieve dual benefits. This study elucidates the dual benefits of NKEFAs, demonstrating their significant role in promoting both economic growth and ecological conservation, which contributes to the understanding of protected areas as tools for ecosystem restoration.
{"title":"Unlocking the dual benefits: Economic and ecological impacts of China's National Key Ecological Function Areas","authors":"Houqi Shen , Yuanmeng Zhang , Mingzhe Wang , Yumeng Lei","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102365","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102365","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Protected areas have become one of the most important tools for ecosystem restoration, yet their multiple benefits have not been fully recognized. This study focuses on the multiple benefits of China's most influential protected areas policies—the National Key Ecological Function Areas (NKEFAs). Using multiple county-level datasets in China, we employ the staggered Difference-in-Differences method to empirically examine the economic and ecological impacts of NKEFAs. Our findings show that the establishment of NKEFAs significantly promotes local economic growth and ecological conservation, with these benefits intensifying over time. Mechanism analysis reveals that spatial agglomeration, economies of scale, industrial structure optimization, and ecological fiscal transfers are crucial drivers in achieving dual benefits. Furthermore, NKEFAs accelerates economic growth in poverty-stricken areas, though regions with high human activity face challenges in achieving ecological improvements. We also highlight the differences in impact between types of ecological function, with areas designated for windbreak and sand fixation, and water source conservation, struggling to achieve dual benefits. This study elucidates the dual benefits of NKEFAs, demonstrating their significant role in promoting both economic growth and ecological conservation, which contributes to the understanding of protected areas as tools for ecosystem restoration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102365"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143430286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-11DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102363
Hongyan Su , Jie He , Hua Wang
A better understanding of respondents' decision behaviors in contingent valuation (CV) is essential to reveal the true preferences of the public for environmental goods or services. Although the theoretical foundation of CV is based on the assumption of the full rationality of respondents, the literature provides various evidence of limited or partial rationality. In a CV survey of air quality improvement in China, we identified non-rational decision behavior style by adopting the latent class analysis and factor analysis methods, both of which are based on a series of questions related to decision behaviors initially proposed by Frör (2008). The application of the latent class model proposes the identification of two or three classes, with at least one more analytical reasoning group significantly differing from the other group(s). The factor analysis approach allowed us to identify two decision behavior factors, i.e., the analytical reasoning factor and the non-analytical reasoning factor. Our estimation results show that the analytical reasoning style is positively correlated with willingness-to-pay (WTP). Furthermore, the mediation tests conducted in the WTP determination models reveal that simply including respondents' socioeconomic, knowledge and perception characteristic questions in the survey to collect the information does not ensure that all the information conveyed by people's decision behavior style is captured.
{"title":"Analysing decision behavior styles in contingent valuation: The latent class and the factor analysis","authors":"Hongyan Su , Jie He , Hua Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102363","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102363","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A better understanding of respondents' decision behaviors in contingent valuation (CV) is essential to reveal the true preferences of the public for environmental goods or services. Although the theoretical foundation of CV is based on the assumption of the full rationality of respondents, the literature provides various evidence of limited or partial rationality. In a CV survey of air quality improvement in China, we identified non-rational decision behavior style by adopting the latent class analysis and factor analysis methods, both of which are based on a series of questions related to decision behaviors initially proposed by Frör (2008). The application of the latent class model proposes the identification of two or three classes, with at least one more analytical reasoning group significantly differing from the other group(s). The factor analysis approach allowed us to identify two decision behavior factors, i.e., the analytical reasoning factor and the non-analytical reasoning factor. Our estimation results show that the analytical reasoning style is positively correlated with willingness-to-pay (WTP). Furthermore, the mediation tests conducted in the WTP determination models reveal that simply including respondents' socioeconomic, knowledge and perception characteristic questions in the survey to collect the information does not ensure that all the information conveyed by people's decision behavior style is captured.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102363"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-11DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102366
YingXue Zhou , Da Wang , Zhengyi Nie
This study calculates China’s net risk from the perspective of the global systemic financial risk spillover network, and constructs TVP-VAR-SV models for China to examine the time-varying effects of geopolitical exposure on aggregate systemic financial risk contagion and investigate the heterogeneous impacts across different financial submarkets. Furthermore, an innovative combination of machine learning techniques for contribution decomposition and time-varying effect analysis is introduced to identify time-varying channel effects, providing a reference for channel analysis in other studies.
The conclusions of this paper are: Firstly, geopolitical exposure has a significant and time-varying impact on systemic risk, with reaching its maximum nine months after the shock occurs. From the time dimension of the sample, the impact is the greatest during the 2012–2013 Sino-Japanese Diaoyu Islands incident. Moreover, the impact during the U.S.-China trade friction lasted for longer time. Secondly, geopolitical volatility has a heterogeneous effect on risk in different financial submarkets. In the short run, it mostly raises the risk in the equity market; in the medium run, it is the treasury market; and in the long run, it is the foreign exchange market. Thirdly, geopolitical exposures increase systemic risk spillovers through the international trade channel, the international capital flows channel, and the market sentiment channel. The capital channel has the greatest response to shocks. However, the effect of these three channels on raising risk spillovers is diminishing over time, while the effect of economic policy uncertainty is gradually increasing.
It is recommended in this paper that the department of systemic risk monitoring should add the assessment of the geopolitical situation to the risk management. In particular, foreign exchange market regulation should be strengthened during periods of geopolitical volatility to be vigilant against the possibility of long-term risks in the foreign exchange market. In terms of channels, China should develop diversified strategies. Given that the capital channel is the most dominant in terms of response strength, special efforts should be made to optimize the regulation of the capital market to enhance the resilience of China’s financial market. China should also be vigilant about the level of economic policy uncertainty and its growing impact. Finally, China should actively strengthen international cooperation.
{"title":"How geopolitical tensions affect China’s systemic financial risk contagion","authors":"YingXue Zhou , Da Wang , Zhengyi Nie","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102366","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102366","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study calculates China’s net risk from the perspective of the global systemic financial risk spillover network, and constructs TVP-VAR-SV models for China to examine the time-varying effects of geopolitical exposure on aggregate systemic financial risk contagion and investigate the heterogeneous impacts across different financial submarkets. Furthermore, an innovative combination of machine learning techniques for contribution decomposition and time-varying effect analysis is introduced to identify time-varying channel effects, providing a reference for channel analysis in other studies.</div><div>The conclusions of this paper are: Firstly, geopolitical exposure has a significant and time-varying impact on systemic risk, with reaching its maximum nine months after the shock occurs. From the time dimension of the sample, the impact is the greatest during the 2012–2013 Sino-Japanese Diaoyu Islands incident. Moreover, the impact during the U.S.-China trade friction lasted for longer time. Secondly, geopolitical volatility has a heterogeneous effect on risk in different financial submarkets. In the short run, it mostly raises the risk in the equity market; in the medium run, it is the treasury market; and in the long run, it is the foreign exchange market. Thirdly, geopolitical exposures increase systemic risk spillovers through the international trade channel, the international capital flows channel, and the market sentiment channel. The capital channel has the greatest response to shocks. However, the effect of these three channels on raising risk spillovers is diminishing over time, while the effect of economic policy uncertainty is gradually increasing.</div><div>It is recommended in this paper that the department of systemic risk monitoring should add the assessment of the geopolitical situation to the risk management. In particular, foreign exchange market regulation should be strengthened during periods of geopolitical volatility to be vigilant against the possibility of long-term risks in the foreign exchange market. In terms of channels, China should develop diversified strategies. Given that the capital channel is the most dominant in terms of response strength, special efforts should be made to optimize the regulation of the capital market to enhance the resilience of China’s financial market. China should also be vigilant about the level of economic policy uncertainty and its growing impact. Finally, China should actively strengthen international cooperation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102366"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143430288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-07DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102361
Jeong Yeol Kim
When firm owners delegate decision-making to managers, such as corporate executives who operate firms directly, a firm's behavior can vary depending on how the owner determines the incentives of the managers. This study employs a lab experiment to investigate the impact of delegation on collusive behavior of firms in a situation where antitrust policies exist. The experiment highlights the following two key findings: (i) Firms form cartels strategically, alternating their collusive and competitive output to evade antitrust regulations, rather than consistently producing collusive output to maximize joint profits; and (ii) Delegation does not necessarily increase the overall number of cartels, but it may change how cartels are formed.
{"title":"Delegation and strategic collusion under antitrust policies: An experiment","authors":"Jeong Yeol Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102361","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102361","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When firm owners delegate decision-making to managers, such as corporate executives who operate firms directly, a firm's behavior can vary depending on how the owner determines the incentives of the managers. This study employs a lab experiment to investigate the impact of delegation on collusive behavior of firms in a situation where antitrust policies exist. The experiment highlights the following two key findings: (i) Firms form cartels strategically, alternating their collusive and competitive output to evade antitrust regulations, rather than consistently producing collusive output to maximize joint profits; and (ii) Delegation does not necessarily increase the overall number of cartels, but it may change how cartels are formed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102361"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143379380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-04DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102360
Sarah Bridges , Lefan Liu
This paper uses data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) conducted in 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2018 to examine the effect recent health and societal changes have had on the ability of households to manage the financial burden of disease. Although health insurance in China has undergone significant reforms over the past decade, out-of-pocket health spending is still widespread. In light of these gaps in the provision of health insurance, households are forced to rely on their adult children for support. We find that the type of support matters, with the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure being the lowest for parents who live in multigenerational households, where it is easier for children to provide directly accessible instrumental and emotional support. For households where there is no co-residence, local support (of the type provided by children who live in the same village/neighbourhood as their parents) is no substitute for the type of assistance (usually financial) that households receive when all their children live beyond the village/neighbourhood.
{"title":"The effect living arrangements and intergenerational support have on the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure: A microeconomic analysis for China","authors":"Sarah Bridges , Lefan Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102360","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102360","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) conducted in 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2018 to examine the effect recent health and societal changes have had on the ability of households to manage the financial burden of disease. Although health insurance in China has undergone significant reforms over the past decade, out-of-pocket health spending is still widespread. In light of these gaps in the provision of health insurance, households are forced to rely on their adult children for support. We find that the type of support matters, with the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure being the lowest for parents who live in multigenerational households, where it is easier for children to provide directly accessible instrumental and emotional support. For households where there is no co-residence, local support (of the type provided by children who live in the same village/neighbourhood as their parents) is no substitute for the type of assistance (usually financial) that households receive when all their children live beyond the village/neighbourhood.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102360"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143379379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-03DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102357
Pei Lu , Yuan Liu
The productivity and political incentive of the Chinese cooperative movement are still in controversy. Theoretically, the cooperative brings both scale effect and monitoring cost, and the free exit rights reduce the monitoring cost and raise the net revenue, but the radicalism lowers the effort input and the net benefit for insufficient labor incentives. Meanwhile, the provincial leaders with lower Party ranks will behave more radically in cooperative movement for promotion incentives. Using the provincial participation rate of all kinds of cooperatives from 1950 to 1956, we find that the temporary mutual aid groups perform the same as household farming; the regular mutual aid groups, elementary cooperatives, and advanced cooperatives experience increasing output loss. The Party secretaries of alternate members and non-members behave more radically in cooperative movement and thus are more likely to be promoted than the Party secretaries of full members. We confirm that the cooperatives had already triggered a productivity decline before Great Lead Forward that was controversial between Lin(1990) and Kung (1993), and we also clarify the disputes on the political radicalism in authoritarian China between Kung and Chen(2011) and Yang et al.(2014).
{"title":"The productivity and political radicalism of the Chinese cooperative movement1","authors":"Pei Lu , Yuan Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102357","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102357","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The productivity and political incentive of the Chinese cooperative movement are still in controversy. Theoretically, the cooperative brings both scale effect and monitoring cost, and the free exit rights reduce the monitoring cost and raise the net revenue, but the radicalism lowers the effort input and the net benefit for insufficient labor incentives. Meanwhile, the provincial leaders with lower Party ranks will behave more radically in cooperative movement for promotion incentives. Using the provincial participation rate of all kinds of cooperatives from 1950 to 1956, we find that the temporary mutual aid groups perform the same as household farming; the regular mutual aid groups, elementary cooperatives, and advanced cooperatives experience increasing output loss. The Party secretaries of alternate members and non-members behave more radically in cooperative movement and thus are more likely to be promoted than the Party secretaries of full members. We confirm that the cooperatives had already triggered a productivity decline before Great Lead Forward that was controversial between Lin(1990) and Kung (1993), and we also clarify the disputes on the political radicalism in authoritarian China between Kung and Chen(2011) and Yang et al.(2014).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"90 ","pages":"Article 102357"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143378392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The increasing uncertainty surrounding China's external trade policies significantly escalates the adverse effects on firms' exports and operational management. This uncertainty amplifies corporate stock price volatility, thus challenging stock market stability. This study examines the influence of external trade policy uncertainty on the risk exposure of Chinese firms and stock market stability. We find that in the short term, shocks from external trade policy uncertainty increase Chinese firms' risk exposure and intensify stock market volatility; however, these adverse effects do not persist long term. The results also indicate that although short-term market sentiment fluctuations lead to temporary declines in stock market stability, the absence of significant long-term declines in corporate performance underpins the market's fundamental stability. Chinese firms intensify their research and development investments and enhance their product quality to diminish the negative effects of external trade policy uncertainty.
{"title":"External trade policy uncertainty, corporate risk exposure, and stock market volatility","authors":"Hongkui Liu , Jiasheng Yu , Guohao Tang , Jian Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102331","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102331","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing uncertainty surrounding China's external trade policies significantly escalates the adverse effects on firms' exports and operational management. This uncertainty amplifies corporate stock price volatility, thus challenging stock market stability. This study examines the influence of external trade policy uncertainty on the risk exposure of Chinese firms and stock market stability. We find that in the short term, shocks from external trade policy uncertainty increase Chinese firms' risk exposure and intensify stock market volatility; however, these adverse effects do not persist long term. The results also indicate that although short-term market sentiment fluctuations lead to temporary declines in stock market stability, the absence of significant long-term declines in corporate performance underpins the market's fundamental stability. Chinese firms intensify their research and development investments and enhance their product quality to diminish the negative effects of external trade policy uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102331"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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