中国经济评论最新文献

Since the early 2000s, R&D expenditure in China has increased rapidly, with the country having the third highest R&D expenditure, next only to the OECD and USA, and having surpassed Japan since 2009. Furthermore, policies in China in recent years have emphasized the need to conduct more basic and applied R&D in order to overcome technological bottlenecks and risks in access to advanced technologies when faced with international geopolitical tension. However, in the meantime, the trend in measured total factor productivity (TFP) in China has been downward since 2010. A lack of TFP growth despite the significant investment in R&D raises the question of the impact of R&D expenditure on productivity growth in China. Therefore, this study aims to investigate this issue and estimate the effects of three types of R&D stocks (basic, applied and experimental R&D stock) on TFP in China, using newly constructed provincial panel data in China from 1998 to 2018. Various empirical models and control variables are adopted to take into account non-stationarity and spatial spill-over of the provincial R&D stock values over time. The analysis results are robust to various specifications and reveal a significant positive effect of overall R&D and experimental R&D on TFP in China, but basic R&D exerts no significant results, and the effects of applied R&D are mixed across specifications. Further analyses using the 1991–2018 national data demonstrated largely consistent results. These results suggest that experimental R&D has been crucial for enhancing TFP growth in China during the decades investigated, but evidence of basic and applied R&D driving TFP growth in China is lacking.

This study explores the impacts of CEO-to-employee pay disparity on investor behavior and market dynamics using an experimental methodology. We employed two laboratory asset markets with identical company valuations but differing CEO-employee pay ratios. Our findings reveal that a higher pay ratio leads investors to quote higher prices for the company's stock. This effect is driven by two conflicting mechanisms of social preference: inequality aversion, which motivates investors who value fairness to quote lower prices for stocks of companies with high pay ratios, and social comparison, where the high pay ratio prompts investors to compare their wealth with that of CEOs, thus becoming more risk-seeking and quoting higher prices. Moreover, higher pay ratios contribute to increased stock prices, fostering larger market bubbles, enhancing the dispersion of investor opinions, boosting trading volumes, and escalating market volatility. This study enriches our understanding of how asset markets react to CEO-to-employee pay disparities, providing valuable insights for policymakers and market participants.

This study employs experimental data from the Labor Force Survey (LFS) to compare the data quality of computer-assisted web interviewing (CAWI) and computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI). The experiment was conducted in 2023 as part of the LFS, an ongoing longitudinal face-to-face survey of Chinese adults aged 16 and above in a mega city. Using the identical questionnaire, respondents were randomly assigned to either the control group (CAPI mode only) or the treatment group (optional CAPI and CAWI modes). The characteristics of households and individuals obtained using mixed-mode design do not significantly differ from those obtained from single-mode design (CAPI), indicating no mode effect on data quality for mixed-mode surveys. Additionally, there are no significant differences in data quality between CAWI and CAPI. CAWI respondents tend to take more time to answer the questions compared to CAPI respondents. Our findings offer valuable insights into enhancing mode-specific targeting and improving the quality of survey data collection by leveraging both existing survey data and paradata.

Using a proprietary data set of auto insurance claims from May 2014 to December 2016, this paper examines the influence of air pollution on the number and severity of traffic accidents in China. Combining an instrumental variable strategy with high-dimensional fixed effects, we find that air pollution significantly increases the occurrence of traffic accidents, with each 1 μg/m³ increase in the particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) resulting in a 0.12 % increase in traffic accident probability and a 0.40 % increase in traffic accident number within one day. A different pattern is revealed in our analysis of accident severity, evidenced by a decrease of 1.20 % in the average claim ratio compared to its mean value and a reduction of 26 yuan in the average claim amount made with an increase of 1 μg/m³ in PM2.5. Combining the effect on the number and severity of traffic accidents, for each 1 μg/m³ increase in daily PM2.5, the district daily claim amount decreases by approximately 34 yuan. Further analysis indicates that this may be related to cautious driving behavior resulting from the driver's increased risk aversion. By exercising caution and care on the road, drivers can reduce the negative influence of air pollution on road safety and avoid non-subjective behavioral biases.

While existing research extensively investigates the repercussions of demand shocks on export performance, limited attention has been given to understanding the trade implications of supply-side input shocks. Utilizing a city-level power shortage index and firm-level data from 2006 to 2014 for the Chinese manufacturing sector, we provide novel evidence of a significant negative impact of power shortages on export performance. This finding remains robust across alternative measurements and in addressing endogeneity concerns. Furthermore, we find that power shortages curtail firms' inventory and innovation activities, which are linked to export performance. Heterogeneity tests reveal insignificant impacts on state-owned firms, those in inland areas and high-energy-consuming industries as well. Additionally, our findings indicate that power shortages exclusively affect the intensive margins of exports rather than the extensive margins. This research offers valuable insights for policymakers and managers in devising strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of power shortages.

In the context of the rapid accumulation of public debt inducing tightened credit supply for firms in China, this paper empirically estimates the effects of local government debt on corporate financing and investment maturity decisions. We find that the increasing local government debt significantly intensifies corporate asset-debt maturity mismatches. Mechanism tests conducted from both the demand and supply side of credit resources indicate that local government debt will enhance corporate maturity mismatches by decreasing firms' availability to long-term credit and increasing the cost of debt financing. Heterogeneity analyses show that the positive relation between government debt and corporate asset-debt maturity mismatches is more pronounced in non-state-owned firms, firms with smaller sizes, higher growth rates, and higher R&D intensity. This study highlights the crucial role of public debt in shaping corporate financing maturity policy and provides important implications for government debt governance reform.

The underrepresentation of women in top leadership positions may result in a potential loss in efficiency. In this study, we examine gender differences in leadership emergence and efficiency when a leadership task is framed as authority or responsibility. In a public good game, the group leader is entitled to punish low contributors among the group members in order to increase the group welfare. The experimental design includes a basic treatment—framing the leader's task as authority or responsibility—in occasions where group leaders emerge through self-promotion or voting. We find a more pronounced framing effect among females compared to males. Although women are generally less willing and less voted to lead than men, the responsibility framing enhances female leaders' effectiveness to a larger extent than male leaders': they contribute more to the public good, and are more inclined to punish low contributors when they are voted as leaders. Therefore, when leadership tasks emphasize responsibility, female leaders could enhance social welfare in the provision of public goods.

Improving consumers' ongoing participation in physical activity is crucial to enhance consumer well-being. While many consumers may begin an exercise program, sustaining their continued participation often presents a significant challenge. This study tests the effectiveness of providing different ex post feedback reminders to motivate consumers' ongoing exercise. We developed feedback reminders across two dimensions. One dimension varied the feedback messages according to whether the messages attributed performance to participants' own efforts, and the other dimension used different personal pronouns to examine whether the deictic relational framing of the feedback mattered. We developed an exercise recording application embedded in WeChat to conduct an 8-week longitudinal field experiment in China. We find that when feedback messages were provided, participants in the “I/We” frame and “You frame + effort emphasized” treatment groups achieved their weekly exercise goals more frequently, especially for subjects with low self-regulation. However, when feedback was no longer provided, the influence of the “You frame + effort emphasized” treatment was even reversed.

In the context of economic development, the escalating prevalence of depression, anxiety and stress poses substantial challenges, not only impacting individuals' physical and mental well-being but also exerting a profound influence on future human capital. This study conducts an exploratory analysis of the effects of a center-based early childhood development intervention on the mental health of the caregivers, utilizing data from a cluster randomized controlled trial involving 1652 caregivers in rural China. Over the course of two years, caregivers and children in 50 villages received individualized parenting training, one-on-one parenting classes, and access to open play spaces in village parenting centers. Our findings reveal sustained and significant intervention effects on caregivers' anxiety and stress symptoms. The primary mechanisms driving these effects include increased parenting time investment, alterations in parenting styles, and changes in the level of trust in others. Furthermore, our research demonstrates that the positive treatment effects on mental health outcomes are more pronounced among caregivers of children who initially lower development skills. The intervention exhibits a stronger impact on caregivers with lower educational attainment, particularly when the caregivers are grandmothers. These results underscore the importance of governmental attention to mental health issues in rural China, suggesting avenues for intervention through the provision of parenting knowledge and spaces facilitating caregiver-child interactions. This research contributes valuable insights into addressing mental health challenges in rural settings, promoting effective strategies for future policy implementation.

This paper investigates how environmental regulation induces firm digitalization. We construct a digital index based on textual analyses and find that after the implementation of the program, pilot firms' digitalization increased relative to that of a group of carefully matched control firms, which is opposite to the findings in the extant literature on technology adoption. This increase cannot be fully explained by regional unobservables, firms' own innovation, firm selection, or other policies. The results are robust when we consider firm subsidiaries. The increase in digitalization is not due to regulatory arbitrage, and the industry-level concentration of digitalization changes little.