中国经济评论最新文献

英文中文

The hysteresis effects of investment shocks in China 中国投资冲击的滞后效应

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102669

Zixiang Zhu, Weimin Zhou, Yake Wen

This paper investigates the permanent effects of investment demand shocks in China, challenging the conventional view in the literature that such shocks are temporary disturbances. Empirically, we identify investment demand shocks with hysteresis effects, which account for a significant share of fluctuations in output, inflation, and investment. Recessions driven by these shocks result in permanent declines in investment, output, employment, and Total Factor Productivity (TFP). To rationalize these empirical patterns, we develop a two-sector New Keynesian DSGE model featuring labor skill accumulation through “learning-by-doing” (hereafter, LBD) and trend processes in both investment demand and supply. The model demonstrates that permanent investment demand shocks induce proportionally larger adjustments in employment and output, aligning with the observed hysteresis effects. Furthermore, our analysis of monetary policy rules reveals that quantity-based rules outperform price-based rules in stabilizing the economy, particularly under permanent investment demand shocks.

本文研究了中国投资需求冲击的永久性影响，挑战了文献中认为这种冲击是暂时干扰的传统观点。从经验上看，我们认为投资需求冲击具有滞后效应，这在产出、通胀和投资的波动中占很大比例。这些冲击导致的衰退导致投资、产出、就业和全要素生产率（TFP）的永久性下降。为了使这些经验模式合理化，我们建立了一个两部门的新凯恩斯DSGE模型，该模型通过“边做边学”（LBD）和投资需求和供给的趋势过程来描述劳动技能积累。该模型表明，永久性投资需求冲击导致就业和产出的比例较大的调整，与观察到的滞后效应一致。此外，我们对货币政策规则的分析表明，以数量为基础的规则在稳定经济方面优于以价格为基础的规则，特别是在永久性投资需求冲击下。

引用次数: 0

Regulatory bias under fiscal stress: Evidence from non-local firms in maritime transport enforcement 财政压力下的监管偏见：来自海上运输执法中的非本地公司的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102662

Yukun Wang , Min Dai

Using difference-in-differences (DID) estimation with a unique micro dataset, we find that maritime officers issue more traffic citations during periods of fiscal stress, disproportionately targeting non-local firms in line with the classic tax-exporting behavior. This regulatory bias is driven by local protectionism and enforcement discretion. The bias is stronger in regions with greater local protectionist incentives, meanwhile non-local firms are more frequently penalized under authoritative national laws rather than local regulations, and face a significant increase in average fines. Furthermore, the bias is weaker for firms from neighboring provinces, those from regions with stronger cultural ties, or those in operating cites with stronger market-supporting institutions. The bias constrains the free flow of production factors, reducing freight distance and turnover, and may lead to long-term economic and social welfare losses.

利用独特微观数据集的差分法（DID）估计，我们发现海事官员在财政压力期间发出更多的交通罚单，不成比例地针对非本地公司，符合经典的税收出口行为。这种监管偏见是由地方保护主义和执法自由裁量权驱动的。在地方保护主义激励更强的地区，这种偏见更强，同时，非本地公司更经常受到权威的国家法律而不是地方法规的惩罚，并且面临着平均罚款的显著增加。此外，来自邻近省份的企业、来自文化联系更强的地区的企业，或者那些位于市场支持机构更强的运营城市的企业，这种偏见更弱。这种偏差限制了生产要素的自由流动，减少了货运距离和周转量，并可能导致长期的经济和社会福利损失。

引用次数: 0

Returns to college education of Chinese manufacturing employees: Who benefits more? 中国制造业员工回归大学教育：谁更受益？

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102665

Yuheng Lin , Dooruj Rambaccussing , Yu Zhu

Using the China Employer-Employee Survey (CEES) data, this study examines the returns to college education for employees across China's manufacturing industry, most of them work in small and medium-sized enterprises (SME). Our baseline model finds that while the 1999 higher education (HE) expansion has no significant impact on college enrollment for male employees, it significantly increases college enrollment for female employees by 23.7% in the manufacturing sector. College education significantly increases the returns by 45.20% for males and 88.33% for females. Moreover, there is heterogeneity in the effects by potential gains: individuals who failed to attend college would have had a higher return compared to college graduates, indicating reverse selection into HE. Further analysis reveals that the effects are more pronounced among female managers, middle birth cohorts (born between 1984 and 1987), female vocation-track degree holders, and STEM graduates. Additionally, college education facilitates employment in roles requiring cognitive skills and reduces the likelihood of female employees performing physically demanding tasks.

本研究利用中国雇主-雇员调查（CEES）数据，考察了中国制造业员工的大学教育回报，这些员工大多在中小企业（SME）工作。我们的基线模型发现，虽然1999年高等教育的扩张对男性员工的大学入学率没有显著影响，但它显著提高了制造业女性员工的大学入学率，增幅为23.7%。受过大学教育的男性和女性的回报率分别显著提高了45.20%和88.33%。此外，潜在收益的影响存在异质性：与大学毕业生相比，未上大学的个人将获得更高的回报，这表明高等教育的逆向选择。进一步的分析表明，这种影响在女性管理人员、中等出生人群（出生于1984年至1987年之间）、女性职业学位持有者和STEM毕业生中更为明显。此外，大学教育促进了需要认知技能的职位的就业，减少了女性员工执行体力要求高的任务的可能性。

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引用次数: 0

Targeted environmental policy and public welfare: Evidence from fireworks deregulation in China 目标环境政策与公共福利：来自中国烟花管制的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102668

Jie Yang , Chu Wei , Renjun Shen , Tonghui Ji

Targeted environmental policies are vital for balancing ecological sustainability and socio-cultural practices. With rising public appeals for traditional customs, governments are reassessing the rationale for fireworks regulation as an anti-pollution measure. This study evaluates fireworks deregulation in specific districts and counties in China, analyzing its impacts on air pollution and public benefits. We find that fireworks deregulation significantly impairs air quality, although the decline remains within acceptable limits. Specifically, the average AQI meets government standards before and after deregulation, and pollution mainly occurs during holidays, in areas with high initial population density, high baseline pollution level, and in eastern regions. Further analysis shows that deregulation enhances subjective well-being and employment, and the quantified benefits at least offset the increased health expenditures. Overall, fireworks deregulation involves environmental costs but also generates meaningful social benefits. Our study offers insights to help targeted environmental governance balance ecological sustainability and traditional cultural preservation.

有针对性的环境政策对于平衡生态可持续性和社会文化实践至关重要。随着公众对传统习俗的呼声越来越高，政府正在重新评估将烟花管制作为一项反污染措施的理由。本研究评估了中国特定区县的烟花管制，分析其对空气污染和公共利益的影响。我们发现，放松烟花管制显著损害了空气质量，尽管下降幅度仍在可接受的范围内。其中，放松管制前后平均AQI均达到政府标准，污染主要发生在节假日、初始人口密度高、基线污染水平高的地区和东部地区。进一步分析表明，放松管制提高了主观幸福感和就业，量化的收益至少抵消了增加的卫生支出。总的来说，放松烟花管制会带来环境成本，但也会产生有意义的社会效益。本研究为有针对性的环境治理平衡生态可持续性和传统文化保护提供了参考。

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引用次数: 0

Health, incentives, and retirement choice: A life-cycle analysis from China 健康、激励和退休选择：来自中国的生命周期分析

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102667

Chao Li , Han Cang

China's rapid population aging and ongoing pension reforms have fundamentally reshaped retirement behavior, yet the interaction between health dynamics and retirement incentives remains insufficiently understood. This paper develops a lifecycle model with endogenous retirement and health accumulation under the Basic Old-Age Insurance (BOAI) system calibrated to Chinese data. The model replicates observed retirement patterns and reveals that better health postpones retirement, while higher pension replacement ratios, amplified by a contribution-floor adjustment, encourage earlier labor exit, particularly for low-income workers. Health effects operate primarily through two channels: the income channel, where income decline increases the likelihood of triggering the adjustment mechanism and incentivizes early retirement; and the risk channel, where deteriorating health increases morbidity and mortality uncertainty and accelerates retirement. Counterfactual simulations reveal asymmetry in health effects: Lower personal account rate and individual productivity disproportionately affect unhealthy households, while increasing contribution rate primarily accelerates retirement among healthier workers.

中国快速的人口老龄化和正在进行的养老金改革从根本上重塑了退休行为，但健康动态和退休激励之间的相互作用仍未得到充分的了解。本文建立了基于中国数据的基本养老保险（BOAI）制度下具有内生退休和健康积累的生命周期模型。该模型重复了观察到的退休模式，并揭示了更好的健康状况推迟了退休时间，而更高的养老金替代比率（由于缴费下限调整而放大）鼓励劳动力提早退出，尤其是低收入工人。健康影响主要通过两个渠道发挥作用：收入渠道，其中收入下降增加了触发调整机制的可能性，并鼓励提前退休；以及风险渠道，健康状况恶化会增加发病率和死亡率的不确定性，并加速退休。反事实模拟揭示了健康效应的不对称性：较低的个人账户率和个人生产率不成比例地影响不健康的家庭，而提高缴费率主要加速了健康工人的退休。

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引用次数: 0

Inventors in the top management team: How position shapes corporate innovation 高层管理团队中的发明家：职位如何影响企业创新

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102663

Yafei Li , Shaoxiang Jiang , Jinping Sun

Inventor executives are important organizers and promoters of corporate innovation. This paper constructs a database of inventor executives in Chinese listed companies by utilizing data on corporate patent inventors and executives' personal resumes. Using data from 2008 to 2022, we investigate the association between inventor executives and corporate innovation. The results indicate: (1) Hiring inventor executives leads to higher innovation growth for firms; (2) The underlying four key mechanisms are signaling effects, R&D investment, executive incentives, and social capital. (3) Inventor CEOs, chairmen, CFOs, and junior executives all boost firm innovation, though the mechanisms through which they operate vary; (4) Inventor executives demonstrate greater innovation-stimulating effects in SOEs than in non-SOEs. This paper introduces a new method to identify internal inventors within companies and further explore their impacts on corporate innovation.

创新高管是企业创新的重要组织者和推动者。本文利用我国上市公司专利发明人数据和专利发明人高管个人简历，构建了我国上市公司专利发明人高管数据库。利用2008年至2022年的数据，我们考察了发明家高管与企业创新之间的关系。研究结果表明：(1)聘用创新型高管能够提高企业的创新增长率；(2)信号效应、研发投入、高管激励和社会资本是企业创新的四个关键机制。(3)发明家型ceo、董事长、cfo和初级高管都能推动企业创新，尽管他们的运作机制各不相同；(4)国有企业的发明人高管比非国有企业表现出更大的创新激励效应。本文提出了一种识别企业内部发明者的新方法，并进一步探讨了其对企业创新的影响。

引用次数: 0

Beauty and the business: Facial attractiveness and entrepreneurship 美貌与商业：外貌吸引力与创业精神

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102666

Jia Guo , Yijie Min , Ben Zhe Wang , Zhiming Cheng

We examine the relationship between facial attractiveness and entrepreneurship in China using survey data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). To address the endogeneity of attractiveness, we employ an instrumental variable (IV) strategy. The estimates show that a one-standard-deviation increase in interviewer-assessed attractiveness raises the probability of becoming an entrepreneur by 4.6 percentage points. The findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks. Mechanism analyses indicate that attractiveness facilitates entrepreneurship by enhancing entrepreneurial skills, easing access to finance, and increasing risk preference. The effect is stronger among individuals with lower human capital or those facing tighter institutional constraints. Furthermore, we find that attractiveness leads to better business outcomes, including being an employer entrepreneur and earning higher business profits.

我们使用来自中国家庭小组研究（CFPS）的调查数据来检验中国面孔吸引力与创业之间的关系。为了解决吸引力的内生性，我们采用了工具变量（IV）策略。估计表明，面试官评估的吸引力每增加一个标准差，成为企业家的可能性就会提高4.6个百分点。通过一系列稳健性检查，这些发现是稳健性的。机制分析表明，吸引力通过提高创业技能、放宽融资渠道和增加风险偏好来促进创业。这种效应在人力资本较低或面临更严格制度约束的个人中更为明显。此外，我们发现吸引力导致更好的商业成果，包括成为雇主企业家和获得更高的商业利润。

引用次数: 0

Information, pollution, and cognition: The impact of air pollution disclosure on aging minds 信息、污染与认知：空气污染信息披露对老龄化心理的影响

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102664

Shaohui Wu , Ge Yin , Xin Zhang

This study is among the first to examine the impact of a pollution information disclosure (PID) program on the cognitive abilities of middle-aged and elderly individuals in a developing country. Leveraging China's rollout of PID as a quasi-natural experiment and using nationally representative survey data, we find that the adoption of PID mitigates the adverse effect of PM2.5 exposure on cognitive performance by 53.01%. This effect is enhanced by increased awareness of pollution risks and changes in health-related behaviors. Moreover, the impact is more pronounced among men, younger individuals, those with higher levels of education and income, internet users, and individuals living with their children.

这项研究是第一个研究污染信息披露（PID）计划对发展中国家中老年人认知能力影响的研究之一。利用中国推出的PID作为准自然实验，并使用具有全国代表性的调查数据，我们发现采用PID可将PM2.5暴露对认知表现的不利影响减轻53.01%。对污染风险认识的提高和与健康有关的行为的改变加强了这种影响。此外，这种影响在男性、年轻人、受教育程度和收入水平较高的人、互联网用户以及与子女同住的人身上更为明显。

引用次数: 0

FDI In, SOE Out: Understanding the reallocation effects of FDI liberalization in China 外商直接投资进入，国有企业退出：了解中国外商直接投资自由化的再配置效应

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102651

Wei Tang , Yuan Wang , Haiqi Wei

This paper investigates the impact of FDI liberalization on allocative efficiency in host countries. Using China’s 2002 FDI deregulation as a policy experiment, we show that growth impacts of FDI in a policy-distorted economy is primarily driven by between-firm resource reallocation rather than within-firm productivity improvements. Domestic firms with higher pre-reform marginal revenue products of capital (MRPK) receive greater capital inflows and exhibit subsequent declines in MRPK. We emphasize the role of FDI reform in reducing ownership-related distortions: it accelerated the exit of state capital. These results highlight that the pro-competitive effects of openness policies can act as external catalysts to mitigate domestic policy-induced distortions.

本文研究FDI自由化对东道国配置效率的影响。本文以2002年中国对外直接投资放松管制为政策实验，表明在政策扭曲的经济体中，对外直接投资的增长影响主要是由企业间资源再配置驱动的，而不是由企业内部生产率的提高驱动的。改革前资本边际收益产品（MRPK）较高的国内企业获得更多的资本流入，并表现出随后的MRPK下降。我们强调外国直接投资改革在减少与所有权相关的扭曲方面的作用：它加速了国有资本的退出。这些结果表明，开放政策的促进竞争效应可以作为缓解国内政策引起的扭曲的外部催化剂。

引用次数: 0

Fintech adoption and skill demand of financial institutions 金融机构对金融科技的采用和技能需求

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102660

Shuang-Xuan Sun , Chun-Yu Ho , Xi Zhu

This study examines how financial institutions adjust their skill demand when their customers increasingly adopt financial technology (fintech). By utilizing approximately 1 million job vacancies from financial institutions, including banks, insurers, securities brokerages and investment companies, in China from 2014 to 2022, we find that financial institutions increase their demand and wage premiums for information and communication technology (ICT) skills when more of their customers adopt fintech. Specifically, we instrument customer adoption of fintech with a Bartik-style instrumental variable (IV) utilizing the variation in distance between customers and the fintech hub in China. Further, banks and state-owned financial institutions are the least responsive in their demand for ICT skills to customer adoption of fintech, which suggests that market competition may play a role in driving the skill demand of financial institutions. Finally, we do not find that artificial intelligence (AI) skill demand responds to customers' adoption of fintech.

本研究探讨了当客户越来越多地采用金融科技（fintech）时，金融机构如何调整其技能需求。通过对2014年至2022年中国金融机构（包括银行、保险公司、证券经纪公司和投资公司）约100万个职位空缺的分析，我们发现，随着越来越多的客户采用金融科技，金融机构对信息通信技术（ICT）技能的需求和工资溢价也会增加。具体而言，我们利用客户与中国金融科技中心之间距离的变化，使用bartik式工具变量（IV）来衡量客户对金融科技的接受程度。此外，银行和国有金融机构对ICT技能的需求对客户采用金融科技的反应最小，这表明市场竞争可能在推动金融机构的技能需求方面发挥作用。最后，我们没有发现人工智能（AI）技能需求与客户对金融科技的采用有关。

引用次数: 0

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