中国经济评论最新文献

英文中文

Quenching thirst, easing debt: Improvement in water resource endowment alleviates local government debt risk 解渴，减轻债务：水资源禀赋改善缓解地方政府债务风险

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102302

Wei Dai, Zhongxin Ni, Enping Yu

Water resources serve as a vital pillar sustaining both economic activities and daily life for residents. However, the uneven distribution of water resources across time and space has made water scarcity a bottleneck factor restricting the economic and social development of some regions. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion project provides an excellent quasi-natural experiment for in-depth research on the effects and influence mechanism of cross-regional productive factor allocation on economic development. This study focuses on whether the water resource endowment improvement is reflected on the capital market. Based on the trading data of urban construction investment bonds from 2011 to 2016, we empirically examine how the South-to-North Water Diversion project affects the local government financing costs. The results indicate that the water diversion project significantly reduces the credit spread of urban construction investment bonds from the water-receiving areas. Further analysis reveals that the water diversion project improves the economic fundamentals and increases the land sales revenue of the water receiving cities, enhancing local governments' implicit guarantee ability for the financing platforms, thereby reducing the credit risks of urban construction investment bonds. This study not only enriches the research on the determinants of credit risk for urban construction investment bonds, but also provides empirical evidence from the capital market that the coordinated allocation of productive factors promotes regional balanced development. The conclusions imply that the government should actively advance the corresponding infrastructure construction and institutional arrangements to promote the flow and complementarity of economic elements between regions.

水资源是维持经济活动和居民日常生活的重要支柱。然而，水资源的时空分布不均，使得水资源短缺成为制约一些地区经济社会发展的瓶颈因素。南水北调工程的实施，为深入研究跨区域生产要素配置对经济发展的影响效果和影响机制提供了一个很好的准自然实验。本研究主要关注水资源禀赋的改善是否在资本市场上有所体现。基于 2011 年至 2016 年城市建设投资债券的交易数据，实证检验了南水北调工程对地方政府融资成本的影响。结果表明，引水工程显著降低了受水区城市建设投资债券的信用利差。进一步分析发现，引水工程改善了受水城市的经济基本面，增加了受水城市的土地出让收入，增强了地方政府对融资平台的隐性担保能力，从而降低了城市建设投资债券的信用风险。本研究不仅丰富了城市建设投资债券信用风险决定因素的研究，而且从资本市场上提供了生产要素协调配置促进区域均衡发展的经验证据。结论意味着政府应积极推进相应的基础设施建设和制度安排，促进区域间经济要素的流动和互补。

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引用次数: 0

Infrastructure and the patterns of trade: An empirical look at China 基础设施与贸易模式：中国的经验观察

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102296

Shuaihang Li , Qihong Liu , Qing Liu

Transport infrastructure plays an important role in economic growth, particularly for developing countries. Recently a burgeoning literature explores how transport infrastructure facilitates economic growth via the channel of trade. In this paper, we study this question in the context of China, but with several distinctions. First, we distinguish firms from different regions in China, and see how their trade behavior responds differently to changes in infrastructure. Second, we consider both export and domestic sales, with an eye toward the interplay between the two channels. Our estimation results reveal the presence of both regional heterogeneity and sales channel competition. For in-land provinces, an improvement in their transport infrastructure raises firms’ exports at the cost of domestic sales. Interestingly, the results are reversed for coastal provinces, mainly driven by non-coastal cities of coastal provinces (rather than coastal cities). We also find negative spatial spillover, in the sense that neighboring provinces tend to compete with rather than complement each other. Our analysis has important policy implications under the current geopolitical tension and policy initiatives (e.g. dual circulation in China).

交通基础设施在经济增长中发挥着重要作用，尤其是对发展中国家而言。最近，有大量文献探讨了交通基础设施如何通过贸易渠道促进经济增长。在本文中，我们以中国为背景研究这一问题，但有几个区别。首先，我们将中国不同地区的企业区分开来，研究它们的贸易行为对基础设施变化的不同反应。其次，我们同时考虑了出口和内销，着眼于两个渠道之间的相互作用。我们的估计结果显示了地区异质性和销售渠道竞争的存在。对于内陆省份来说，交通基础设施的改善提高了企业的出口，但内销却付出了代价。有趣的是，沿海省份的结果正好相反，主要是由沿海省份的非沿海城市（而非沿海城市）推动的。我们还发现了负的空间溢出效应，即相邻省份往往相互竞争而非互补。在当前地缘政治紧张局势和政策举措（如中国的双循环）下，我们的分析具有重要的政策含义。

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引用次数: 0

Cognitive ability in matching with strategic uncertainty: An experimental study 战略不确定性匹配中的认知能力：实验研究

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102295

Xinquan Hu , Lan Yao

Strategyproof mechanisms have become the predominant choice for educational institutions. However, both laboratory experiments and empirical evidence highlight the persistent occurrence of strategic misreporting, leading to adverse consequences. This underscores the need to examine the reporting strategies of students, particularly those with varying cognitive abilities, across different decision environments. We present an experimental comprehension test of reporting strategies using computerized opponents to precisely control the levels of strategic uncertainty. The results reveal that removing strategic uncertainty does not significantly affect truth-telling rates. However, subjects with median cognitive ability are more truthful under strategic uncertainty, especially when information is incomplete. Additionally, providing information about priorities has a negative and significant impact on truth-telling rates. The findings of this research demonstrate that constructing a simplified market environment using computerized agents and providing relevant feedback to students can effectively enhance their understanding of the matching mechanism and nudge them to make optimal strategy choices.

战略防御机制已成为教育机构的主要选择。然而，实验室实验和经验证据都凸显了策略性误报的持续发生，从而导致不良后果。这凸显了研究学生，尤其是认知能力不同的学生在不同决策环境下的报告策略的必要性。我们利用计算机对手精确控制战略不确定性水平，对报告策略进行了实验性理解测试。结果显示，消除策略不确定性并不会显著影响说真话的比率。然而，认知能力处于中位数的受试者在策略不确定性条件下会更真实，尤其是在信息不完整的情况下。此外，提供关于优先级的信息对说真话率也有显著的负面影响。研究结果表明，利用计算机代理构建一个简化的市场环境，并向学生提供相关反馈，可以有效增强他们对匹配机制的理解，促使他们做出最优策略选择。

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引用次数: 0

Follow the gaze: How social attention shapes gendered trading choices 追随目光：社会关注如何影响性别交易选择

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102301

Xiaolan Yang , Xiaotong Fang , Mei Gao , Lucy F. Ackert , Li Qi

We explore how visual attention differentially impacts the trading behavior of men and women. In the laboratory, eye-tracking technology measures information gaze during a sequential trading game in which participants are asked to buy or sell an asset. Before making a decision, traders receive information on the trading decisions of other participants (others' decisions) and the redemption value of the asset (private information). Research documents that women, compared to men, pay more attention to social cues. In this study, women are more attention-driven when making financial decisions, as compared to men. We conclude that attentional priority is a cognitive mechanism that can account for the increased tendency of women, compared to men, to follow the social cues of others with disparate information and tournament incentives.

我们探讨了视觉注意力如何对男性和女性的交易行为产生不同影响。在实验室中，眼动跟踪技术测量了参与者在连续交易游戏中的信息注视情况。在做出决定之前，交易者会收到其他参与者的交易决定（其他人的决定）和资产的赎回价值（私人信息）。研究表明，与男性相比，女性更关注社会线索。在本研究中，与男性相比，女性在做出金融决策时更受注意力驱动。我们的结论是，注意力优先是一种认知机制，它可以解释为什么与男性相比，女性更倾向于在信息和竞争激励不同的情况下听从他人的社交暗示。

引用次数: 0

Did the anti-avoidance rules curtail the profit shifting of foreign multinationals in China? 反避税规则是否遏制了外国跨国公司在中国的利润转移？

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102299

Mantian Xue

This paper analyzes the policy effect of the anti-avoidance rules introduced on January 1, 2008 on profit shifting of foreign multinationals in China. Based on micro data from the OSIRIS database, this paper finds that the anti-avoidance rules were quite effective in curbing profit shifting of foreign multinationals through raising the pre-tax margin of subsidiaries in China relative to those outside China by about 6.5 percentage points, or about 7.6 percentage points considering the anticipation effect. Besides, the results indicate that the anti-avoidance rules were more effective for multinationals in service industries or those registered in non-haven countries.

本文分析了 2008 年 1 月 1 日开始实施的反避税规则对在华外资跨国公司利润转移的政策影响。基于 OSIRIS 数据库的微观数据，本文发现反避税规则通过将在华子公司相对于境外子公司的税前利润率提高约 6.5 个百分点，或考虑预期效应提高约 7.6 个百分点，在抑制外国跨国公司利润转移方面相当有效。此外，研究结果表明，反避税规则对服务业跨国公司或在非避税港国家注册的跨国公司更为有效。

引用次数: 0

Intergenerational preference transmission in physician families during the pandemic: Theory and evidence 大流行病期间医生家庭的代际偏好传递：理论与证据

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102298

Yiting Guo, Lijia Wei, Lian Xue

We examine the intergenerational transmission of economic preferences among physicians by analyzing the altruistic and risk preferences of medical students and one of their parents through incentivized experiments in Wuhan. Our findings reveal that altruism in parents is a strong predictor of similar traits in their children, demonstrating the intergenerational transmission of pro-social traits. Moreover, these children are more likely to choose a medical major, reflecting a tendency to self-select into the medical field based on altruistic inclinations. This self-selection effect has been augmented post-pandemic. These medical families are more likely to form a distinct family cluster characterized by higher levels of risk-taking and altruistic preferences. We propose a theoretical framework capturing the intergenerational preference transmission and family-wise self-selection among future physicians. Our research has important policy implications, suggesting that enhancing intra-household support can effectively address the chronic labor shortfall in the medical industry.

我们通过在武汉进行的激励实验，分析了医学生及其父母之一的利他主义和风险偏好，从而研究了经济偏好在医生中的代际传递。我们的研究结果表明，父母的利他主义是子女类似特质的有力预测因素，这证明了亲社会特质的代际传递。此外，这些孩子更有可能选择医学专业，这反映了基于利他主义倾向的医学领域自我选择倾向。这种自我选择效应在大流行后得到了加强。这些从医家庭更有可能形成一个独特的家庭集群，其特点是具有较高的冒险精神和利他主义倾向。我们提出了一个理论框架，以捕捉未来医生的代际偏好传递和家庭式自我选择。我们的研究具有重要的政策意义，表明加强家庭内部支持可以有效解决医疗行业长期存在的劳动力短缺问题。

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引用次数: 0

How motivations and costs affect financial knowledge learning? Evidence from a large-scale FinTech experiment in China 动机和成本如何影响金融知识学习？来自中国大规模金融科技实验的证据

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102294

Xuefeng Pan , Qin Su , Haibo Lei

Utilizing the launch of mobile wealth management services in China in 2013 as a shock to financial education, we analyze a panel of 16,440 households through a difference-in-differences strategy to examine how learning motivations and costs affect financial knowledge learning. Results show that using mobile services encourages risky asset holdings and enhances the self-discipline to learn, which, coupled with low-cost and personalized learning tools provided through the services, increases financial knowledge. We contribute by utilizing a large-scale experiment beyond the classroom to show the role of learning motivations and costs in financial knowledge learning, therefore help clear the controversy on the effectiveness of financial education.

我们利用 2013 年中国移动财富管理服务的推出对金融教育的冲击，通过差分策略分析了 16440 个家庭的面板数据，研究学习动机和成本如何影响金融知识的学习。结果表明，使用移动服务会鼓励持有风险资产并增强学习的自律性，再加上服务提供的低成本和个性化学习工具，从而增加了金融知识。我们利用课堂之外的大规模实验来说明学习动机和学习成本在金融知识学习中的作用，因此有助于澄清关于金融教育有效性的争议。

引用次数: 0

The long-term cognitive and schooling effects of childhood vaccinations in China 中国儿童接种疫苗对认知和学校教育的长期影响

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102293

Hamid R. Oskorouchi , Alfonso Sousa-Poza , David E. Bloom

By exploiting rich retrospective data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study on childhood immunization, socioeconomics, and health status, we assess the long-term effects of childhood vaccination on cognitive and educational outcomes in China. Applying an instrumental variable approach that resembles an unobserved natural experiment to different sets of control variables and subsamples, we estimate the average and local treatment effects of childhood vaccination. Our results confirm that immunization before the age of 15 has long-term positive and economically meaningful effects on non-health outcomes such as education and cognitive skills. These effects are strong, with vaccinated individuals enjoying about one additional year of schooling and performing better on several cognitive tests later in life. Finally, a causal mediation analysis shows that, although education mediates the effect of childhood immunization on later-life cognitive abilities, other factors (e.g., better child health) are more responsible for these long-term effects.

通过利用中国健康与退休纵向研究（China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study）中有关儿童免疫接种、社会经济和健康状况的丰富回顾性数据，我们评估了儿童接种疫苗对中国认知和教育结果的长期影响。通过对不同的控制变量和子样本进行类似于无观测自然实验的工具变量方法，我们估算了儿童疫苗接种的平均和局部治疗效果。我们的结果证实，15 岁前的免疫接种对教育和认知技能等非健康结果具有长期积极的、有经济意义的影响。这些效应非常明显，接种疫苗的人可多上一年学，并在日后的几项认知测试中表现更佳。最后，因果中介分析表明，尽管教育对儿童免疫接种对日后认知能力的影响起中介作用，但其他因素（如更好的儿童健康）对这些长期影响的作用更大。

引用次数: 0

Unveiling the shadows: School bullying and students' ability erosions in Chinese compulsory schools 揭开阴影中国义务教育阶段校园欺凌与学生能力消退

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102292

Yunsen Li , Dan He , Yilin Wang , Guochang Zhao , Jing Yang

Drawing upon data from the National Children's Study of China, this research investigates the school bullying victimization and its associations with the ability erosions among students in Chinese schools. Three key findings emerge. First, results suggest that the primary factors affecting bullying victimization mainly include authoritarian parenting, limited positive social interactions on campus, adverse experiences, and exposure to teacher and peer smoking. Second, estimates indicate that bullying victimization is significantly associated with ability erosions, particularly among students from relatively advantaged backgrounds. The further Oster's test, falsification test, and reverse causality check confirm the validity of the associations and suggest some causal effect of victimization on the student outcomes. Lastly, the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition shows that lower human capital investments derived from social interactions are the most significant contributors to the ability erosion linked to bullying victimization. These findings highlight the critical importance of social interactions both at home and in schools.

本研究利用中国全国儿童研究的数据，调查了中国学校中学生遭受校园欺凌的情况及其与能力削弱之间的关联。研究得出了三个重要发现。首先，研究结果表明，影响校园欺凌受害情况的主要因素包括家长专制、校园中积极的社会交往有限、不良经历以及教师和同伴吸烟。其次，估计结果表明，欺凌受害与能力侵蚀有显著关联，尤其是在背景相对优越的学生中。进一步的奥斯特检验、证伪检验和反向因果关系检验证实了这些关联的有效性，并表明受害对学生的结果产生了一定的因果效应。最后，奥克萨卡-布林德分解法显示，社会交往所带来的较低人力资本投资是造成与欺凌受害相关的能力削弱的最主要原因。这些发现凸显了家庭和学校中社会交往的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

The deterrent effect of environmental judicature on firms' pollution emissions: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China 环境司法对企业污染排放的威慑效应：来自中国准自然实验的证据

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102291

Peng Zhou , Xiaoqi Huang , Frank M. Song

This paper investigates the deterrent effect of environmental judicature on firms' pollution emissions. Regarding the establishment of environmental courts (ECs) in China as a quasi-natural experiment, our staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) estimation shows that strengthening environmental judicature has a negative, causal effect on firms' pollution emissions. The exogenous establishment of ECs decreases industrial firms' pollution emission intensity by approximately 7.8 %. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative effect of ECs on pollution emissions is particularly salient for firms in regions with weak environmental awareness, firms in industries with low competition, and firms with a high intensity of pollution emissions. Mechanism analysis indicates that the establishment of ECs enhances environmental justice and increases environmental violation costs, thereby having a deterrent effect on firms' pollution emissions. To comply with the more stringent environmental judicature, firms located in cities with ECs may temporarily cut their production, use more clean energy and buy more desulfurization equipment. In the long term, they may engage in more green and cooperative innovations, further substantiating the deterrent impact of stringent environmental judicature. Our findings can offer valuable insights for corporate green transformation and government pollution control.

本文研究了环境司法对企业污染排放的威慑作用。将中国设立环保法庭（ECs）作为一个准自然实验，我们的交错差分法（DID）估计表明，加强环境司法对企业的污染排放具有负向因果效应。外生设立环境委员会会使工业企业的污染排放强度降低约 7.8%。异质性分析表明，对于环境意识薄弱地区的企业、低竞争行业的企业以及高污染排放强度的企业而言，环境司法对污染排放的负效应尤为突出。机制分析表明，环境管理委员会的设立加强了环境正义，增加了环境违法成本，从而对企业的污染排放产生了威慑作用。为了遵守更严格的环境司法，位于设立环境管理委员会的城市的企业可能会暂时削减产量，使用更多清洁能源，购买更多脱硫设备。从长远来看，这些企业可能会进行更多的绿色创新和合作创新，从而进一步证实了严格环境司法的威慑性影响。我们的研究结果可为企业绿色转型和政府污染控制提供有价值的启示。

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