中国经济评论最新文献

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How do very small businesses survive in a rent-seeking society? Evidence from China 小型企业如何在寻租社会中生存？来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102661

Yongjing Zhang , Zhiqiang Dong , Xiahai Wei

This study identifies very small businesses (VSBs) as survival-oriented entrepreneurs. Using a unique survey of 1450 VSB owners (with fewer than 50 employees) across China, combined with regional fiscal and institutional data, we provide the first micro-level evidence on how VSBs allocate entrepreneurial efforts to enhance survival in a rent-seeking society.

We classify VSBs along three dimensions: whether they are subject to governmental apportion, operate in new technological industries, or possess political connections. Our findings reveal that VSBs generally relinquish attempts to win rent-seeking contests or resist rent extraction. With the exception of those in new technological sectors, VSBs increase productive—but not unproductive—activities, benefiting from spillover effects generated by rent-seeking among larger firms. VSBs not subject to government apportion reduce rent- seeking efforts when rent-seeking opportunities expand. Finally, politically connected VSBs do not adjust their entrepreneurial efforts in response to institutional improvements but increase innovation after property rights are secured through government ties. In summary, a rent-seeking society presents both opportunities and obstacles for VSBs, including those without political connections.

这项研究将非常小的企业（VSBs）确定为以生存为导向的企业家。通过对中国1450名中小企业主（员工少于50人）的独特调查，结合地区财政和制度数据，我们提供了第一个微观层面的证据，证明中小企业主如何分配创业努力，以提高寻租社会的生存能力。我们从三个方面对虚拟企业进行分类：它们是否受政府分摊，是否在新技术产业中运营，是否拥有政治关系。我们的研究结果表明，VSBs通常会放弃赢得寻租竞赛或抵制租金提取的尝试。除了那些新技术部门，VSBs增加了生产性活动，而不是非生产性活动，受益于大公司之间寻租产生的溢出效应。当寻租机会扩大时，不受政府分摊的私营企业会减少寻租活动。最后，有政治关系的私营企业不会根据制度的改善调整其创业努力，而是在通过政府关系确保产权后增加创新。综上所述，寻租社会为志愿人员提供了机会和障碍，包括那些没有政治关系的人。

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引用次数: 0

Political gestures or tightening mandates? New evidence for campaign-style environmental intervention in China 政治姿态还是严格的指令？运动式环境干预在中国的新证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102670

Jianglong Li , Shiqiang Sun , Guanfei Meng , Hongxun Liu

This study investigates China's campaign-style environmental interventions during politically sensitive periods, addressing whether pollution abatement reflects transient political signaling or durable regulatory tightening. Leveraging daily data from 110 Chinese cities (2014–2020) surrounding President Xi's inspection tours, we employ regression discontinuity in time and difference-in-differences designs to disentangle short-term versus sustained effects. Results reveal significant pollution rebound post-inspections, predominantly driven by lifted traffic restrictions rather than industrial controls. However, medium-term analysis demonstrates that inspections catalyze lasting improvements when accompanied by strong environmental rhetoric, with effects sustained through intensified routine enforcement. Regional heterogeneity shows northern cities achieve larger SO₂ reductions despite greater structural challenges. The findings reveal that campaign-style interventions generate both short-term political gestures and medium-term institutional tightening, with the transition to routine governance producing environmental benefits when political signals are sufficiently strong.

结果显示，检查后污染显著反弹，主要是由于取消交通限制，而不是工业控制。然而，中期分析表明，如果检查伴随着强烈的环境言论，就能促进持久的改善，并通过加强日常执法来维持效果。区域异质性表明，北方城市尽管面临更大的结构性挑战，但仍能实现更大的SO₂减排。研究结果表明，运动式干预既会产生短期的政治姿态，也会产生中期的制度收紧，当政治信号足够强烈时，向常规治理的过渡会产生环境效益。

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引用次数: 0

The hysteresis effects of investment shocks in China 中国投资冲击的滞后效应

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102669

Zixiang Zhu, Weimin Zhou, Yake Wen

This paper investigates the permanent effects of investment demand shocks in China, challenging the conventional view in the literature that such shocks are temporary disturbances. Empirically, we identify investment demand shocks with hysteresis effects, which account for a significant share of fluctuations in output, inflation, and investment. Recessions driven by these shocks result in permanent declines in investment, output, employment, and Total Factor Productivity (TFP). To rationalize these empirical patterns, we develop a two-sector New Keynesian DSGE model featuring labor skill accumulation through “learning-by-doing” (hereafter, LBD) and trend processes in both investment demand and supply. The model demonstrates that permanent investment demand shocks induce proportionally larger adjustments in employment and output, aligning with the observed hysteresis effects. Furthermore, our analysis of monetary policy rules reveals that quantity-based rules outperform price-based rules in stabilizing the economy, particularly under permanent investment demand shocks.

本文研究了中国投资需求冲击的永久性影响，挑战了文献中认为这种冲击是暂时干扰的传统观点。从经验上看，我们认为投资需求冲击具有滞后效应，这在产出、通胀和投资的波动中占很大比例。这些冲击导致的衰退导致投资、产出、就业和全要素生产率（TFP）的永久性下降。为了使这些经验模式合理化，我们建立了一个两部门的新凯恩斯DSGE模型，该模型通过“边做边学”（LBD）和投资需求和供给的趋势过程来描述劳动技能积累。该模型表明，永久性投资需求冲击导致就业和产出的比例较大的调整，与观察到的滞后效应一致。此外，我们对货币政策规则的分析表明，以数量为基础的规则在稳定经济方面优于以价格为基础的规则，特别是在永久性投资需求冲击下。

引用次数: 0

FDI In, SOE Out: Understanding the reallocation effects of FDI liberalization in China 外商直接投资进入，国有企业退出：了解中国外商直接投资自由化的再配置效应

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102651

Wei Tang , Yuan Wang , Haiqi Wei

This paper investigates the impact of FDI liberalization on allocative efficiency in host countries. Using China’s 2002 FDI deregulation as a policy experiment, we show that growth impacts of FDI in a policy-distorted economy is primarily driven by between-firm resource reallocation rather than within-firm productivity improvements. Domestic firms with higher pre-reform marginal revenue products of capital (MRPK) receive greater capital inflows and exhibit subsequent declines in MRPK. We emphasize the role of FDI reform in reducing ownership-related distortions: it accelerated the exit of state capital. These results highlight that the pro-competitive effects of openness policies can act as external catalysts to mitigate domestic policy-induced distortions.

本文研究FDI自由化对东道国配置效率的影响。本文以2002年中国对外直接投资放松管制为政策实验，表明在政策扭曲的经济体中，对外直接投资的增长影响主要是由企业间资源再配置驱动的，而不是由企业内部生产率的提高驱动的。改革前资本边际收益产品（MRPK）较高的国内企业获得更多的资本流入，并表现出随后的MRPK下降。我们强调外国直接投资改革在减少与所有权相关的扭曲方面的作用：它加速了国有资本的退出。这些结果表明，开放政策的促进竞争效应可以作为缓解国内政策引起的扭曲的外部催化剂。

引用次数: 0

Regulatory bias under fiscal stress: Evidence from non-local firms in maritime transport enforcement 财政压力下的监管偏见：来自海上运输执法中的非本地公司的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102662

Yukun Wang , Min Dai

Using difference-in-differences (DID) estimation with a unique micro dataset, we find that maritime officers issue more traffic citations during periods of fiscal stress, disproportionately targeting non-local firms in line with the classic tax-exporting behavior. This regulatory bias is driven by local protectionism and enforcement discretion. The bias is stronger in regions with greater local protectionist incentives, meanwhile non-local firms are more frequently penalized under authoritative national laws rather than local regulations, and face a significant increase in average fines. Furthermore, the bias is weaker for firms from neighboring provinces, those from regions with stronger cultural ties, or those in operating cites with stronger market-supporting institutions. The bias constrains the free flow of production factors, reducing freight distance and turnover, and may lead to long-term economic and social welfare losses.

利用独特微观数据集的差分法（DID）估计，我们发现海事官员在财政压力期间发出更多的交通罚单，不成比例地针对非本地公司，符合经典的税收出口行为。这种监管偏见是由地方保护主义和执法自由裁量权驱动的。在地方保护主义激励更强的地区，这种偏见更强，同时，非本地公司更经常受到权威的国家法律而不是地方法规的惩罚，并且面临着平均罚款的显著增加。此外，来自邻近省份的企业、来自文化联系更强的地区的企业，或者那些位于市场支持机构更强的运营城市的企业，这种偏见更弱。这种偏差限制了生产要素的自由流动，减少了货运距离和周转量，并可能导致长期的经济和社会福利损失。

引用次数: 0

The impact of bank internationalization on the efficiency of Chinese outward foreign direct investment 银行国际化对中国对外直接投资效率的影响

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102648

Xingjian Zhang , Yi Zhang , Yingjie Fu , Feichi Lu

This study examines the impact of bank internationalization on the efficiency of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Using a large dataset of OFDI for 1035 Chinese firms across 136 host economies from 2013 to 2023, we find that the presence of Chinese banks in a host economy significantly improves Chinese firms’ investment efficiency there. This finding is robust to addressing endogeneity with instrumental variables and a series of robustness checks. Mechanism analysis identifies two channels: the credit channel, which lowers borrowing costs and improves loan utilization efficiency, and the information channel, which reduces institutional unfamiliarity and mitigates discrimination. Moreover, its impact varies with host economy characteristics, banking service features, and firm-specific factors. These findings provide important policy insights for emerging economies, highlighting the need to promote greater banking internationalization to improve the global competitiveness of their multinational firms.

本研究探讨银行国际化对对外直接投资效率的影响。利用2013 - 2023年136个东道国经济体1035家中国企业对外直接投资的大型数据集，我们发现中资银行在东道国的存在显著提高了中国企业在当地的投资效率。这一发现是稳健的解决内生性与工具变量和一系列稳健性检查。机制分析确定了两个渠道：信贷渠道，它降低了借贷成本，提高了贷款利用效率；信息渠道，它减少了制度不熟悉度，减轻了歧视。此外，其影响因东道国经济特征、银行服务特征和企业特定因素而异。这些发现为新兴经济体提供了重要的政策见解，强调了促进银行业国际化以提高跨国公司全球竞争力的必要性。

引用次数: 0

The distributive effects of online judicial auctions on corporate credit 网络司法拍卖对企业信用的分配效应

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102649

Zijun Cheng , Michael Beichen Huang , Chaoqun Li , Yongwei Ye

This paper investigates the distributional effects of judicial FinTech on corporate financing, leveraging China’s staggered adoption of Online Judicial Auctions (OJAs). While the reform successfully enhances creditor protection–boosting auction volumes, prices, and reducing defaults–its benefits accrue unequally. Using a difference-in-differences design with multiple firm-level datasets, we find that listed firms and large firms in the National Tax Survey dataset significantly increase their leverage, whereas small and medium enterprises (SMEs) experience negligible changes in debt, investment, or employment. This heterogeneity is systematically graded by firm size. The credit expansion for large firms is not met by an increase in aggregate bank lending, revealing a short-run inelasticity of credit supply. Consequently, the surge in demand triggers a reallocation of the existing credit pool, crowding out smaller firms, which subsequently face higher borrowing costs. Our findings demonstrate that even efficiency-enhancing judicial reforms can have redistributive consequences, underscoring the critical role of general equilibrium forces and the need for complementary policies to support SMEs.

本文利用中国交错采用的在线司法拍卖（OJAs），研究司法金融科技对企业融资的分配效应。虽然改革成功地加强了债权人保护——提高了拍卖量、价格，减少了违约——但其收益却不平等。通过对多个企业层面数据集的差异设计，我们发现国家税务调查数据集中的上市公司和大公司的杠杆率显著提高，而中小企业在债务、投资或就业方面的变化可以忽略不计。这种异质性是按企业规模系统分级的。大企业的信贷扩张并没有得到银行贷款总量增加的满足，这表明短期内信贷供应缺乏弹性。因此，需求的激增引发了现有信贷池的重新配置，将小企业挤出市场，后者随后面临更高的借贷成本。我们的研究结果表明，即使是提高效率的司法改革也可能产生再分配后果，强调了一般均衡力量的关键作用以及支持中小企业的补充政策的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

Inventors in the top management team: How position shapes corporate innovation 高层管理团队中的发明家：职位如何影响企业创新

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102663

Yafei Li , Shaoxiang Jiang , Jinping Sun

Inventor executives are important organizers and promoters of corporate innovation. This paper constructs a database of inventor executives in Chinese listed companies by utilizing data on corporate patent inventors and executives' personal resumes. Using data from 2008 to 2022, we investigate the association between inventor executives and corporate innovation. The results indicate: (1) Hiring inventor executives leads to higher innovation growth for firms; (2) The underlying four key mechanisms are signaling effects, R&D investment, executive incentives, and social capital. (3) Inventor CEOs, chairmen, CFOs, and junior executives all boost firm innovation, though the mechanisms through which they operate vary; (4) Inventor executives demonstrate greater innovation-stimulating effects in SOEs than in non-SOEs. This paper introduces a new method to identify internal inventors within companies and further explore their impacts on corporate innovation.

创新高管是企业创新的重要组织者和推动者。本文利用我国上市公司专利发明人数据和专利发明人高管个人简历，构建了我国上市公司专利发明人高管数据库。利用2008年至2022年的数据，我们考察了发明家高管与企业创新之间的关系。研究结果表明：(1)聘用创新型高管能够提高企业的创新增长率；(2)信号效应、研发投入、高管激励和社会资本是企业创新的四个关键机制。(3)发明家型ceo、董事长、cfo和初级高管都能推动企业创新，尽管他们的运作机制各不相同；(4)国有企业的发明人高管比非国有企业表现出更大的创新激励效应。本文提出了一种识别企业内部发明者的新方法，并进一步探讨了其对企业创新的影响。

引用次数: 0

Promoting organic fertilizer use through subsidy incentives and knowledge dissemination 通过补贴激励和知识传播促进有机肥的使用

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102671

Jiangyi Li , Siyu Ding , Jiajia Chen

This paper investigates whether agricultural technology extension (ATE), including both “subsidy incentives” and “knowledge dissemination”, can promote the adoption of organic fertilizer by farmers in China. Using the data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) in 2017 and 2019 and employing a difference-in-differences estimation strategy based on propensity score matching (PSM-DID), we find that ATE can effectively promote the adoption of organic fertilizer through both channels, with the latter accounting for 37.4%. Specifically, providing subsidies in the early stages to alleviate the constraints of green factor inputs and disseminating agricultural knowledge continuously can make organic fertilizer rooted in agricultural production. Furthermore, this paper also discovers that ATE can expand the market scope of agricultural products by promoting the adoption of organic fertilizer, thereby increasing sales revenue and net agricultural income.

本文研究了农业技术推广（ATE），包括“补贴激励”和“知识传播”，是否能促进中国农民采用有机肥。利用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS） 2017年和2019年的数据，采用基于倾向得分匹配（PSM-DID）的差中差估计策略，我们发现ATE可以通过两个渠道有效促进有机肥的采用，后者占37.4%。具体来说，在早期提供补贴，缓解绿色要素投入的约束，持续传播农业知识，可以使有机肥扎根于农业生产。此外，本文还发现ATE可以通过促进有机肥的使用来扩大农产品的市场范围，从而增加销售收入和农业净收入。

引用次数: 0

Fintech adoption and skill demand of financial institutions 金融机构对金融科技的采用和技能需求

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102660

Shuang-Xuan Sun , Chun-Yu Ho , Xi Zhu

This study examines how financial institutions adjust their skill demand when their customers increasingly adopt financial technology (fintech). By utilizing approximately 1 million job vacancies from financial institutions, including banks, insurers, securities brokerages and investment companies, in China from 2014 to 2022, we find that financial institutions increase their demand and wage premiums for information and communication technology (ICT) skills when more of their customers adopt fintech. Specifically, we instrument customer adoption of fintech with a Bartik-style instrumental variable (IV) utilizing the variation in distance between customers and the fintech hub in China. Further, banks and state-owned financial institutions are the least responsive in their demand for ICT skills to customer adoption of fintech, which suggests that market competition may play a role in driving the skill demand of financial institutions. Finally, we do not find that artificial intelligence (AI) skill demand responds to customers' adoption of fintech.

本研究探讨了当客户越来越多地采用金融科技（fintech）时，金融机构如何调整其技能需求。通过对2014年至2022年中国金融机构（包括银行、保险公司、证券经纪公司和投资公司）约100万个职位空缺的分析，我们发现，随着越来越多的客户采用金融科技，金融机构对信息通信技术（ICT）技能的需求和工资溢价也会增加。具体而言，我们利用客户与中国金融科技中心之间距离的变化，使用bartik式工具变量（IV）来衡量客户对金融科技的接受程度。此外，银行和国有金融机构对ICT技能的需求对客户采用金融科技的反应最小，这表明市场竞争可能在推动金融机构的技能需求方面发挥作用。最后，我们没有发现人工智能（AI）技能需求与客户对金融科技的采用有关。

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全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

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