Rasmus Bang , Bjørn Gunnar Hansen , Mario Guajardo , Jon Kristian Sommerseth , Ola Flaten , Leif Jarle Asheim
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
CONTEXT
An important question for farmers is whether to run their farm conventionally or organically. This choice can significantly affect the farm's financial performance and its impact on the environment.
OBJECTIVE
The primary objective of this study is to compare the profitability of conventional and organic cattle systems and investigate how it is associated with individual farm characteristics, like forage production capacity, forage quality, milk quota, animal housing capacity, and their relative presences.
METHOD
We employ a whole farm optimization model, customized for Norwegian cattle farming. The primary goal of this model is to maximize the gross margin by optimizing decisions related to land usage and animal inventory while adhering to a set of constraints. We systematically solve more than 200,000 model instances, with varying farm characteristics.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
The results can be distilled to the following key points: If forage of good quality is readily available, but the livestock operation cannot be expanded due to animal housing and milk quota restrictions, organic may outcompete conventional farming. Otherwise, gross margin is maximized with conventional farming. These findings emphasize the crucial role of forage production capacity and quality in relation to available milk quota and infrastructure when considering the transition from conventional to organic farming. Extensive sensitivity analyses affirm the robustness of these conclusions. Regional regulatory factors, such as government farm payments, also play a significant role, and influence the optimal farming approach. Additionally, we show that increases in organic price premiums can markedly impact the competitiveness of organic farming, even in a system where government payments make out a significant part of the farm revenue.
SIGNIFICANCE
The model can support farmers to make informed decisions about converting to organic or conventional farming. It can also be used by policymakers to determine the level of support required to make it worthwhile for different types of farms to convert. We also show that existing government payment schemes give rise to regional differences in the incentives for organic farming in Norway. To ensure equal incentives for organic farming across the country, the organic payments would have to be regionally adjusted, in line with the other already regionally dependent government payments. This insight may be of significant interest to policymakers and other stakeholders.
期刊介绍:
Agricultural Systems is an international journal that deals with interactions - among the components of agricultural systems, among hierarchical levels of agricultural systems, between agricultural and other land use systems, and between agricultural systems and their natural, social and economic environments.
The scope includes the development and application of systems analysis methodologies in the following areas:
Systems approaches in the sustainable intensification of agriculture; pathways for sustainable intensification; crop-livestock integration; farm-level resource allocation; quantification of benefits and trade-offs at farm to landscape levels; integrative, participatory and dynamic modelling approaches for qualitative and quantitative assessments of agricultural systems and decision making;
The interactions between agricultural and non-agricultural landscapes; the multiple services of agricultural systems; food security and the environment;
Global change and adaptation science; transformational adaptations as driven by changes in climate, policy, values and attitudes influencing the design of farming systems;
Development and application of farming systems design tools and methods for impact, scenario and case study analysis; managing the complexities of dynamic agricultural systems; innovation systems and multi stakeholder arrangements that support or promote change and (or) inform policy decisions.