Context
Current trends in SSA show a rapid expansion of the area in rainfed cereal production with persistent low yields. This, despite the long-established efforts to close the yield gap in SSA and promote high(er) yielding agricultural intensification (re. Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa).
Objective
In this paper, we show why the extensification of low yielding rainfed agriculture in SSA, as reported, persists and forms a sensible strategy to pursue for small holders – both from an agronomic and economic point of view.
Methods
We do this by presenting the comparative modelling analysis for the low yield extensification and high yield intensification strategy for rainfed maize cultivation in Dodoma, Tanzania. The contrasting strategies were modelled and assessed using crop growth modelling (AquaCrop), 9 years of climatic data and economic data for costs and revenues. Data were obtained from online sources and past studies.
Results & conclusions
Results show that low yield extensification under rainfed conditions is sensible, due to: (i) the staggering of planting dates that provide a better climate resilience for production; and (ii) a higher economic profitability, especially in the long term. Our results show that the economic risks (due to crop failure) of the high yielding intensification strategy become insurmountable for low-income households when both climate volatility and prices of chemical fertilisers increase.
Significance
Expanding agricultural rainfed area under low input, low cost, and low yield (as reported by FAO) is, as supported by our modelling results, a sensible risk management strategy to pursue for low-income households, that helps to explain its continuing practice. Finally, we will argue that in an era of increasing climatic and financial volatility affecting agricultural production, we will need to reorient our agricultural production systems from yield maximisation to risk optimisation. To halt the continuing expansion of rainfed agriculture, at the expense of nature, the focus will have to shift towards increasing and stabilising income for poor household under volatile climatic conditions. Our methods can be applied to assess the climatic risks of rainfed agriculture regions by determining the cut-off ratio at which extensification outperforms intensification.
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