CONTEXT
It is unclear whether the global targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved without negatively impacting food security. Some studies assume that increased agricultural productivity can improve environmental performance without reducing food availability. However, this scenario has not yet been tested at a farm level.
OBJECTIVE
This study examines whether increasing the environmental performance of farms reduces their potential calorie output, taking into account the interactions between different farming types (TFs) and natural constraints based on a dataset from Poland (16,263 observations from 2014 to 2022).
METHODS
A Super-SBM DEA model with multiple desirable and undesirable outputs was employed to compute target values for caloric outputs in the technical efficiency models, both with and without taking the GHG criterion into account. Next, the causal effects of natural constraints on food trade-offs and efficiency were estimated matching similar agricultural systems by several treatment effect techniques.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Food trade-offs were confirmed to occur, accounting for 4–19% of potential calorie output (PCO), depending on the TF. These trade-offs can be mitigated by 13% or boosted by 6% of PCO due to the level of natural constraints. Interestingly, the correlation between food trade-offs and environmental efficiency varied depending on the TF: it was negative for animal specialisations and positive for field crops.
SIGNIFICANCE
There is a consensus that highly developed countries have a decisive influence on global food security through spot and futures markets. However, it is worth exploring whether GHG reduction can be achieved in these countries without compromising food availability?
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