Influence of long-term observed trends on the performance of seasonal hydroclimate forecasts

Abstract

Skillful forecasts of hydroclimate variables are essential for operational water management, agricultural planning, and food supply. Several studies have attempted to improve the skill of raw forecasts either by post-processing or by incorporating sea surface conditions into raw forecasts. However, to the best of our knowledge, limited to no study has investigated temporal trend, which is present in observed records but is absent from retrospective forecasts (also known as, hindcasts). The current study understands that a temporal trend can be yielded in raw meteorological forecasts by i) updating surface boundary forcings and ii) applying statistical models for either post-processing meteorological forecasts or issuing streamflow forecasting using weather forecasts as predictors. To analytically derive the relationship between temporal trend and forecast performance, this study applies three statistical approaches for post-processing season-ahead hindcasts of the Indian monsoon obtained from three general circulation models (GCM). The findings show that raw hindcasts of the Indian monsoons typically ignore the temporal trend present in the observed records. Furthermore, analytical derivations confirm that the absence of a trend in GCM hindcasts significantly influences post-processing performance. Moreover, a semi-parametric approach could not overcome the limitations of a parametric linear model in yielding a temporal trend in the hindcasts. Potential reasons for the absence of a trend in the hindcast is also discussed.