Advances in Water Resources最新文献

Effects of temperature on the multi-scale characteristics of bioclogging in porous media

IF 4 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Advances in Water Resources

Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104980

Shilin Wang, Xixiang Li, Lijian Huang, Gengyang Zang, Taijia Lu, Yanfeng Gong, Liping Chen

In this study, an improved multi-scale algorithm was developed to analyze the effects of temperature on the bioclogging processes at pore and Representative Elementary Volume (REV) scales. In this algorithm, Immersed Boundary-Lattice Boltzmann Method- Cellular Automata (IB-LBM-CA) model for pore-scale simulation and Discrete Unified Gas-Kinetic Scheme-Cellular Automata (DUGKS-CA) model for REV simulation were coupled with the porosity and permeability obtained at pore-scale simulation as connecting bridge. In this study, a biofilm detachment model with non-Newtonian shear-thinning characteristics was considered, and also the tendency of high nutrient concentration for microbes and the inoculation rates of microbes were taken into account. The simulation results had been validated by laboratory percolation experiments with a high consistence. The main results are as follows: (1) At the pore scale, as the temperature increased, the clogging time decreased, the proportion of the clogging time occupied by slow decline period decreased and the proportion of the clogging time taken by rapid decline period increased. (2) At the REV scale, the clogging time decreased with the increasing temperature and inoculation rate. The relationship between clogging time and inoculation rate could be described by an exponential decay model. (3) A linear relationship was found between the clogging time at the pore and REV scales, and the proportion coefficient decreased as the inoculation rate increased. The influences of inoculation rates and temperatures on the clogging time proportion coefficients could be described by exponential decay model and linear decay model, respectively. The average exponential decay rate of clogging time proportion coefficient for the inoculation rate is 0.54 / % and the linear decay rates of clogging time proportion coefficient for the temperature are mainly decreased with increasing inoculation rate.

{"title":"Effects of temperature on the multi-scale characteristics of bioclogging in porous media","authors":"Shilin Wang, Xixiang Li, Lijian Huang, Gengyang Zang, Taijia Lu, Yanfeng Gong, Liping Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104980","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104980","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, an improved multi-scale algorithm was developed to analyze the effects of temperature on the bioclogging processes at pore and Representative Elementary Volume (REV) scales. In this algorithm, Immersed Boundary-Lattice Boltzmann Method- Cellular Automata (IB-LBM-CA) model for pore-scale simulation and Discrete Unified Gas-Kinetic Scheme-Cellular Automata (DUGKS-CA) model for REV simulation were coupled with the porosity and permeability obtained at pore-scale simulation as connecting bridge. In this study, a biofilm detachment model with non-Newtonian shear-thinning characteristics was considered, and also the tendency of high nutrient concentration for microbes and the inoculation rates of microbes were taken into account. The simulation results had been validated by laboratory percolation experiments with a high consistence. The main results are as follows: (1) At the pore scale, as the temperature increased, the clogging time decreased, the proportion of the clogging time occupied by slow decline period decreased and the proportion of the clogging time taken by rapid decline period increased. (2) At the REV scale, the clogging time decreased with the increasing temperature and inoculation rate. The relationship between clogging time and inoculation rate could be described by an exponential decay model. (3) A linear relationship was found between the clogging time at the pore and REV scales, and the proportion coefficient decreased as the inoculation rate increased. The influences of inoculation rates and temperatures on the clogging time proportion coefficients could be described by exponential decay model and linear decay model, respectively. The average exponential decay rate of clogging time proportion coefficient for the inoculation rate is 0.54 / % and the linear decay rates of clogging time proportion coefficient for the temperature are mainly decreased with increasing inoculation rate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7614,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Water Resources","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 104980"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143838212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Image-well solution for island aquifers with pumping, recharge, and complex coastlines

IF 4 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Advances in Water Resources

Pub Date : 2025-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104977

Ying-Fan Lin , Barret L. Kurylyk , Adrian D. Werner , Chih-Yu Liu , Cristina Solórzano-Rivas , Jun-Hong Lin

This study presents an innovative mathematical framework that integrates a new analytical solution with the image-well method to model island aquifers under the combined influences of pumping, recharge, and complex coastline geometries. Past analytical solutions often rely on simplified boundary conditions and assume axially or radially symmetric coastline geometries, limiting their ability to address multiple stressors and complex island geometries. In contrast, the proposed framework leverages the computational speed and simplicity of analytical modeling while incorporating an image-well approach to accommodate boundaries with arbitrary shapes. To validate the method accuracy and robustness, convergence analyses and comparisons with an established analytical solution are conducted. Additionally, new indices are introduced to evaluate the sensitivity of the freshwater–saltwater interface depth to various forcings and to assess uncertainties in vulnerability indices. An illustrative case study, based loosely on Kinmen Island, Taiwan, is used to demonstrate the applicability of the approach to optimize the pumping rates for multiple wells while ensuring that the interface depth remains within safe limits. Overall, the presented methodology provides a flexible and efficient tool for groundwater resource management in coastal regions, enabling assessment of saltwater intrusion risk and informing sustainable water-use strategies for coastal regions under dynamic environmental conditions.

{"title":"Image-well solution for island aquifers with pumping, recharge, and complex coastlines","authors":"Ying-Fan Lin , Barret L. Kurylyk , Adrian D. Werner , Chih-Yu Liu , Cristina Solórzano-Rivas , Jun-Hong Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104977","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104977","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents an innovative mathematical framework that integrates a new analytical solution with the image-well method to model island aquifers under the combined influences of pumping, recharge, and complex coastline geometries. Past analytical solutions often rely on simplified boundary conditions and assume axially or radially symmetric coastline geometries, limiting their ability to address multiple stressors and complex island geometries. In contrast, the proposed framework leverages the computational speed and simplicity of analytical modeling while incorporating an image-well approach to accommodate boundaries with arbitrary shapes. To validate the method accuracy and robustness, convergence analyses and comparisons with an established analytical solution are conducted. Additionally, new indices are introduced to evaluate the sensitivity of the freshwater–saltwater interface depth to various forcings and to assess uncertainties in vulnerability indices. An illustrative case study, based loosely on Kinmen Island, Taiwan, is used to demonstrate the applicability of the approach to optimize the pumping rates for multiple wells while ensuring that the interface depth remains within safe limits. Overall, the presented methodology provides a flexible and efficient tool for groundwater resource management in coastal regions, enabling assessment of saltwater intrusion risk and informing sustainable water-use strategies for coastal regions under dynamic environmental conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7614,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Water Resources","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 104977"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143855860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Multi-GPUs based SWE algorithm and its application in the simulation of flood routing

IF 4 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Advances in Water Resources

Pub Date : 2025-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104985

Yang-Yang Zhang , Wen-Jie Xu , Fu-Qiang Tian , Xiao-Hu Du

Hydrodynamic simulation based on shallow water wave equations (SWE) is one of the most useful methods for flood routing analysis. However, its widespread application in large-scale basin flood disaster prevention is hindered by significant computational efficiency challenges. Addressing this issue, a hydrodynamic algorithm based on multi-GPUs is provided, and the program named as CoSim-SWE is developed in this study. In the algorithm, the computational domain is partitioned into multiple subdomains, and assigned to each single GPU device to improve the computing power and efficiency. The accuracy of the multi-GPUs algorithm is validated based on two benchmarks. To demonstrate its practical utility, the developed CoSim-SWE is used to reconstruct the process of “11·03″ flood routing induced by the dam breach of Baige barrier dam on the Jinsha River, Sichuan province, China. The numerical results are compared with the field investigations. Furthermore, computational efficiency of the CoSim-SWE is also analyzed, which shows the developed multi-GPUs algorithm significantly can be better used for simulation of the large-scale flood routing with high-efficiency.

{"title":"A Multi-GPUs based SWE algorithm and its application in the simulation of flood routing","authors":"Yang-Yang Zhang , Wen-Jie Xu , Fu-Qiang Tian , Xiao-Hu Du","doi":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104985","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104985","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hydrodynamic simulation based on shallow water wave equations (SWE) is one of the most useful methods for flood routing analysis. However, its widespread application in large-scale basin flood disaster prevention is hindered by significant computational efficiency challenges. Addressing this issue, a hydrodynamic algorithm based on multi-GPUs is provided, and the program named as CoSim-SWE is developed in this study. In the algorithm, the computational domain is partitioned into multiple subdomains, and assigned to each single GPU device to improve the computing power and efficiency. The accuracy of the multi-GPUs algorithm is validated based on two benchmarks. To demonstrate its practical utility, the developed CoSim-SWE is used to reconstruct the process of “11·03″ flood routing induced by the dam breach of Baige barrier dam on the Jinsha River, Sichuan province, China. The numerical results are compared with the field investigations. Furthermore, computational efficiency of the CoSim-SWE is also analyzed, which shows the developed multi-GPUs algorithm significantly can be better used for simulation of the large-scale flood routing with high-efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7614,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Water Resources","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 104985"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143842997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Pore scale modeling of wettability impact on CO2 capillary and dissolution trapping in natural porous media

IF 4 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Advances in Water Resources

Pub Date : 2025-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104982

Jinlei Wang , Yongfei Yang , Qi Zhang , Qi Wang , Huaisen Song , Hai Sun , Lei Zhang , Junjie Zhong , Kai Zhang , Jun Yao

Understanding CO₂ capillary trapping and dissolution trapping behaviors in deep saline aquifers is essential for improvement of sequestration efficiency. This study investigated the impact of rock wettability on CO₂ capillary and dissolution trapping in a Ketton carbonate rock through direct numerical simulation. Based on experimentally measured CO₂-brine-rock physics data, we performed the pore-scale simulation of drainage process under four wettability conditions, followed by imbibition process under six sets of flow rate conditions. The dynamic evolution of CO₂ clusters and dissolved CO₂ distribution during drainage and imbibition processes was tracked simultaneously. Our results showed that wettability significantly influenced the morphology of trapped CO₂ clusters, consequently impacting the dissolution behavior. During drainage process, CO₂ saturation is higher in relatively hydrophobic rock but the dissolution capacity is lower because of the lower specific interfacial area. During imbibition process, the trapped scCO₂ saturation is also higher in relatively hydrophobic rock, and the number of CO₂ clusters is higher with more dispersed distribution. Increasing the flow rate can significantly reduce the residual CO₂ saturation and thus affect the dissolution efficiency. The function relationship between Sherwood number Sh calculated by mass transfer coefficient

\overline{k}

and flow rate-dependent Péclet number Pe under different wettability conditions was proposed. The CO₂ dissolution process is more affected by the flow rate under relative hydrophilic conditions.

{"title":"Pore scale modeling of wettability impact on CO2 capillary and dissolution trapping in natural porous media","authors":"Jinlei Wang , Yongfei Yang , Qi Zhang , Qi Wang , Huaisen Song , Hai Sun , Lei Zhang , Junjie Zhong , Kai Zhang , Jun Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104982","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104982","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding CO<sub>2</sub> capillary trapping and dissolution trapping behaviors in deep saline aquifers is essential for improvement of sequestration efficiency. This study investigated the impact of rock wettability on CO<sub>2</sub> capillary and dissolution trapping in a Ketton carbonate rock through direct numerical simulation. Based on experimentally measured CO<sub>2</sub>-brine-rock physics data, we performed the pore-scale simulation of drainage process under four wettability conditions, followed by imbibition process under six sets of flow rate conditions. The dynamic evolution of CO<sub>2</sub> clusters and dissolved CO<sub>2</sub> distribution during drainage and imbibition processes was tracked simultaneously. Our results showed that wettability significantly influenced the morphology of trapped CO<sub>2</sub> clusters, consequently impacting the dissolution behavior. During drainage process, CO<sub>2</sub> saturation is higher in relatively hydrophobic rock but the dissolution capacity is lower because of the lower specific interfacial area. During imbibition process, the trapped scCO<sub>2</sub> saturation is also higher in relatively hydrophobic rock, and the number of CO<sub>2</sub> clusters is higher with more dispersed distribution. Increasing the flow rate can significantly reduce the residual CO<sub>2</sub> saturation and thus affect the dissolution efficiency. The function relationship between Sherwood number <em>Sh</em> calculated by mass transfer coefficient <span><math><mover><mrow><mi>k</mi></mrow><mo>‾</mo></mover></math></span> and flow rate-dependent Péclet number <em>Pe</em> under different wettability conditions was proposed. The CO<sub>2</sub> dissolution process is more affected by the flow rate under relative hydrophilic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7614,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Water Resources","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 104982"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143842868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Laboratory experiments of rotating stratified exchange flows over a sediment bed

IF 4 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Advances in Water Resources

Pub Date : 2025-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104959

M.R. Maggi , E.J. Hopfinger , J. Sommeria , C. Adduce , S. Viboud , T. Valran , M.E. Negretti

We present a pioneering experimental study of stratified, rotating exchange flows interacting with a bottom, mobile sediment bed that simulates large estuaries. Two-dimensional velocity fields are coupled with bed scan that allows to reconstruct the bed morphology. The experiments span a large parameter range, notably laminar to turbulent Ekman layer regimes (

33 < R e_{δ} < 192

) and Burger numbers (

0.4 < B u < 2.1

). For low Burger numbers (

B u < 1

), meandering of the lower salty layer occurs due to baroclinic instability, leading to the formation of columnar vortices, whose size and phase speed are in agreement with theory (Pedlosky, 2013). The Ekman layer thickness is well identified in the experiments over a smooth bed giving access to an eddy viscosity, hence the friction velocity

u_{*}

, which is used as the characteristic velocity of sediment erosion. We show that sediment transport is driven mainly by Ekman dynamics with a net transport across the channel cross-section in direction of the geostrophic slope. For low Burger numbers, meandering induces further variability in cross- and along-channel velocities affecting sediment transport. The estimated non-dimensional bed-form wavelengths align closely with previous values of ripples in gravity currents reported in the literature. Notably, these wavelengths do not indicate a transition from ripples to dunes with increasing Yalin numbers, unlike in open channel flows. Finally, the sediment suspension model of Maggi et al. (2024) is extended by including across-channel sediment transport, that explains the observed temporal change in bed-forms and the effect of Ekman pumping on the suspended sediment layer thickness.

我们介绍了一项关于分层旋转交换流与底部流动沉积床相互作用的开创性实验研究，该实验模拟了大型河口。二维速度场与床面扫描相结合，可以重建床面形态。实验的参数范围很大，特别是从层流到湍流的埃克曼层制度（33<Reδ<192）和布尔格数（0.4<Bu<2.1）。在低布尔格数（Bu<1）条件下，由于气压不稳定性，下盐层会发生蜿蜒，从而形成柱状涡旋，其大小和相速与理论相符（Pedlosky，2013 年）。在实验中，埃克曼层厚度在光滑的海床上得到了很好的确定，从而获得了涡流粘度，即摩擦速度 u∗，该速度被用作沉积物侵蚀的特征速度。我们的研究表明，沉积物运移主要是由埃克曼动力学驱动的，在河道横截面上的净运移方向与地转斜率一致。在伯格数较低的情况下，河道蜿蜒会导致跨河道和沿河道速度的进一步变化，从而影响泥沙输运。估算的非维度河床形态波长与以前文献报道的重力流波纹值非常接近。值得注意的是，与明渠流不同，这些波长并不表明随着雅林数的增加，波纹会过渡到沙丘。最后，Maggi 等人（2024 年）的沉积物悬浮模型通过加入跨河道沉积物输运进行了扩展，从而解释了观测到的床面形态的时间变化以及埃克曼泵对悬浮沉积层厚度的影响。

{"title":"Laboratory experiments of rotating stratified exchange flows over a sediment bed","authors":"M.R. Maggi , E.J. Hopfinger , J. Sommeria , C. Adduce , S. Viboud , T. Valran , M.E. Negretti","doi":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104959","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104959","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present a pioneering experimental study of stratified, rotating exchange flows interacting with a bottom, mobile sediment bed that simulates large estuaries. Two-dimensional velocity fields are coupled with bed scan that allows to reconstruct the bed morphology. The experiments span a large parameter range, notably laminar to turbulent Ekman layer regimes (<span><math><mrow><mn>33</mn><mo><</mo><mi>R</mi><msub><mrow><mi>e</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>δ</mi></mrow></msub><mo><</mo><mn>192</mn></mrow></math></span>) and Burger numbers (<span><math><mrow><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>4</mn><mo><</mo><mi>B</mi><mi>u</mi><mo><</mo><mn>2</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span>). For low Burger numbers (<span><math><mrow><mi>B</mi><mi>u</mi><mo><</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span>), meandering of the lower salty layer occurs due to baroclinic instability, leading to the formation of columnar vortices, whose size and phase speed are in agreement with theory (Pedlosky, 2013). The Ekman layer thickness is well identified in the experiments over a smooth bed giving access to an eddy viscosity, hence the friction velocity <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>u</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msub></math></span>, which is used as the characteristic velocity of sediment erosion. We show that sediment transport is driven mainly by Ekman dynamics with a net transport across the channel cross-section in direction of the geostrophic slope. For low Burger numbers, meandering induces further variability in cross- and along-channel velocities affecting sediment transport. The estimated non-dimensional bed-form wavelengths align closely with previous values of ripples in gravity currents reported in the literature. Notably, these wavelengths do not indicate a transition from ripples to dunes with increasing Yalin numbers, unlike in open channel flows. Finally, the sediment suspension model of Maggi et al. (2024) is extended by including across-channel sediment transport, that explains the observed temporal change in bed-forms and the effect of Ekman pumping on the suspended sediment layer thickness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7614,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Water Resources","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 104959"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143816019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Likelihood-free inference and hierarchical data assimilation for geological carbon storage

IF 4 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Advances in Water Resources

Pub Date : 2025-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104961

Wenchao Teng, Louis J. Durlofsky

Data assimilation will be essential for the management and expansion of geological carbon storage operations. In traditional data assimilation approaches a fixed set of geological hyperparameters, such as mean and standard deviation of log-permeability, is often assumed. Such hyperparameters, however, may be highly uncertain in practical CO

_{2}

storage applications where measurements are scarce. In this study, we develop a hierarchical data assimilation framework for carbon storage that treats hyperparameters as uncertain variables characterized by hyperprior distributions. To deal with the computationally intractable likelihood function in hyperparameter estimation, we apply a likelihood-free (or simulation-based) inference algorithm, specifically sequential Monte Carlo-based approximate Bayesian computation (SMC-ABC), to draw posterior samples of hyperparameters given dynamic monitoring well data. In the second step we use an ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) procedure to provide posterior realizations of grid-block permeability. To reduce computational costs, a 3D recurrent R-U-Net deep learning-based surrogate model is applied for forward function evaluations. The accuracy of the surrogate model is established through comparisons to high-fidelity simulation results. A rejection sampling (RS) procedure for data assimilation is applied to provide reference posterior results. Detailed data assimilation results from SMC-ABC-ESMDA are compared to those from the reference RS method. These include marginal posterior distributions of hyperparameters, pairwise marginal posterior samples, and history matching results for pressure and saturation at the monitoring location. Close agreement is achieved with ‘converged’ RS results, for two synthetic true models, in all quantities considered. Importantly, the SMC-ABC-ESMDA procedure provides speedup of 1–2 orders of magnitude relative to RS for the two cases. A modified standalone ESMDA procedure, able to treat uncertain hyperparameters, is introduced for comparison purposes. For the same number of function evaluations, the hierarchical data assimilation approach is shown to provide superior results for posterior hyperparameter distributions and monitoring well pressure predictions.

{"title":"Likelihood-free inference and hierarchical data assimilation for geological carbon storage","authors":"Wenchao Teng, Louis J. Durlofsky","doi":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104961","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104961","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Data assimilation will be essential for the management and expansion of geological carbon storage operations. In traditional data assimilation approaches a fixed set of geological hyperparameters, such as mean and standard deviation of log-permeability, is often assumed. Such hyperparameters, however, may be highly uncertain in practical CO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> storage applications where measurements are scarce. In this study, we develop a hierarchical data assimilation framework for carbon storage that treats hyperparameters as uncertain variables characterized by hyperprior distributions. To deal with the computationally intractable likelihood function in hyperparameter estimation, we apply a likelihood-free (or simulation-based) inference algorithm, specifically sequential Monte Carlo-based approximate Bayesian computation (SMC-ABC), to draw posterior samples of hyperparameters given dynamic monitoring well data. In the second step we use an ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) procedure to provide posterior realizations of grid-block permeability. To reduce computational costs, a 3D recurrent R-U-Net deep learning-based surrogate model is applied for forward function evaluations. The accuracy of the surrogate model is established through comparisons to high-fidelity simulation results. A rejection sampling (RS) procedure for data assimilation is applied to provide reference posterior results. Detailed data assimilation results from SMC-ABC-ESMDA are compared to those from the reference RS method. These include marginal posterior distributions of hyperparameters, pairwise marginal posterior samples, and history matching results for pressure and saturation at the monitoring location. Close agreement is achieved with ‘converged’ RS results, for two synthetic true models, in all quantities considered. Importantly, the SMC-ABC-ESMDA procedure provides speedup of 1–2 orders of magnitude relative to RS for the two cases. A modified standalone ESMDA procedure, able to treat uncertain hyperparameters, is introduced for comparison purposes. For the same number of function evaluations, the hierarchical data assimilation approach is shown to provide superior results for posterior hyperparameter distributions and monitoring well pressure predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7614,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Water Resources","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 104961"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143850612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Integrating Hidden Markov and Multinomial models for hydrological drought prediction under nonstationarity

IF 4 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Advances in Water Resources

Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104974

Marcus Suassuna Santos , Louise J. Slater

Understanding the drivers of drought variability is crucial for developing effective adaptation and management strategies. This study develops a two-step modelling approach to characterize and predict hydrological droughts in a nonstationary context. First, a multivariate Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to classify low-water level time series into Dry, Normal, and Wet years, identifying Dry years as hydrological droughts. Second, a Multinomial Logistic Regression model (MLR) is proposed to predict low-water level class transitions, incorporating external variables into the transition matrix estimates. Precipitation thresholds for annual minima are also derived, with uncertainties and sensitivities assessed via bootstrap resampling. Our framework was successfully applied to the Paraguay River basin (PRB), where long-term changes in hydrological variables are frequent. The HMM transition matrix reveals a long persistence of years in each water level class and an inhomogeneity between two periods (1901–1960 and 1961–2024). The second period exhibits more extended runs of wet, dry, and non-dry years, suggesting a change in the driving dynamics. A multi-annual hydrological drought lasting for 13 years (1961–1973) was identified, followed by a stretch of 46 years (1974–2019) with no droughts in the study area. Our simulations indicate that the 46-year period with no drought had only a 4 % probability of occurrence. Precipitation is the primary predictor of regime shifts, but the class transition probabilities and precipitation thresholds are non-homogeneous and conditional on the current low-water level regime. We identify precipitation thresholds for initiating transitions between Dry, Wet and Normal years, conditioned on the current water levels: in a normal year, precipitation below 1040 mm triggers a hydrological drought, while in a drought year, precipitation above 1180 mm triggers a return to normal conditions. The research advances nonstationary extreme event analysis by proposing an efficient new approach to estimate inhomogeneity in hydrological drought occurrence; identify long persistence of hydrological drought episodes and their associated probabilities; define precipitation thresholds; and reveal the importance of coupled drivers of low water level shifts.

{"title":"Integrating Hidden Markov and Multinomial models for hydrological drought prediction under nonstationarity","authors":"Marcus Suassuna Santos , Louise J. Slater","doi":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104974","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104974","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the drivers of drought variability is crucial for developing effective adaptation and management strategies. This study develops a two-step modelling approach to characterize and predict hydrological droughts in a nonstationary context. First, a multivariate Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to classify low-water level time series into Dry, Normal, and Wet years, identifying Dry years as hydrological droughts. Second, a Multinomial Logistic Regression model (MLR) is proposed to predict low-water level class transitions, incorporating external variables into the transition matrix estimates. Precipitation thresholds for annual minima are also derived, with uncertainties and sensitivities assessed via bootstrap resampling. Our framework was successfully applied to the Paraguay River basin (PRB), where long-term changes in hydrological variables are frequent. The HMM transition matrix reveals a long persistence of years in each water level class and an inhomogeneity between two periods (1901–1960 and 1961–2024). The second period exhibits more extended runs of wet, dry, and non-dry years, suggesting a change in the driving dynamics. A multi-annual hydrological drought lasting for 13 years (1961–1973) was identified, followed by a stretch of 46 years (1974–2019) with no droughts in the study area. Our simulations indicate that the 46-year period with no drought had only a 4 % probability of occurrence. Precipitation is the primary predictor of regime shifts, but the class transition probabilities and precipitation thresholds are non-homogeneous and conditional on the current low-water level regime. We identify precipitation thresholds for initiating transitions between Dry, Wet and Normal years, conditioned on the current water levels: in a normal year, precipitation below 1040 mm triggers a hydrological drought, while in a drought year, precipitation above 1180 mm triggers a return to normal conditions. The research advances nonstationary extreme event analysis by proposing an efficient new approach to estimate inhomogeneity in hydrological drought occurrence; identify long persistence of hydrological drought episodes and their associated probabilities; define precipitation thresholds; and reveal the importance of coupled drivers of low water level shifts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7614,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Water Resources","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 104974"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaporation characteristics and salt deposition dynamics from a homogeneous porous medium consisting of mono-disperse glass beads under controlled IR heating from above

IF 4 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Advances in Water Resources

Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104964

Shivani Chauhan, Navneet Kumar

The present study experimentally investigated the evaporation-precipitation dynamics at sub-millimetric to millimetric scales in 1 M NaCl salt-DI water solution-based homogeneous porous media consisting of nearly mono-disperse glass beads (ranging from 0.10 to 2.50 mm) under controlled infrared heating from above, mimicking realistic field scenarios. Three diagnostic tools were employed simultaneously: mass loss measurements using a precision weighing balance, surface temperature measurements using an IR camera, and optical imaging (at times with fluorescein dye) for visualization purposes. In all the cases, salt precipitates around

\sim 0.97

of saturation. Experimental results show a strong interdependence between evaporation and salt deposition, significantly influenced by the particle sizes. For 0.70–0.85 mm case, evaporation characteristics with and without salt were found to be similar. For 0.40–0.60 mm and 0.70–0.85 mm cases, a constant evaporation rate persisted for

\sim

4–5 h at

\sim

1,000W/m² of incident heat flux, deviating from the regular ‘No Salt’ nature under external heating. In finer particles (0.10–0.30 mm), rapid salt deposition led to a steep fall in evaporation rate, while in medium and coarser sizes, it initially increased linearly, then exponentially during Stage 1 due to emerging precipitation sites within interconnected voids forming distinct wet patch, visible in IR imaging. Despite variations,

\sim

80 % of the exposed surface was covered during Stage 1 (except the 2.00–2.50 mm case due to weak capillary forces) in all the cases. Unlike pure water cases, the evaporative capillary length shows a non-linear trend with particle size with maximum value appearing for 0.70–0.85 mm case, interestingly similar to the value for the ‘No Salt’ case.

本研究通过实验研究了在 1 M NaCl 盐-DI 水溶液基均质多孔介质（由近乎单分散的玻璃珠（0.10 至 2.50 毫米不等）组成）中，在受控红外自上而下加热的情况下，亚毫米级到毫米级的蒸发-沉淀动力学，模拟了真实的现场场景。同时使用了三种诊断工具：使用精密称重天平测量质量损失、使用红外摄像机测量表面温度以及为可视化目的进行光学成像（有时使用荧光素染料）。在所有情况下，盐都在饱和度的 0.97 左右析出。实验结果表明，蒸发和盐沉积之间存在很强的相互依存关系，这在很大程度上受颗粒大小的影响。对于 0.70-0.85 毫米的情况，有盐和无盐的蒸发特性相似。对于 0.40-0.60 毫米和 0.70-0.85 毫米的情况，在入射热通量为 1,000 瓦/平方米的条件下，恒定的蒸发率持续了 4-5 小时，偏离了外部加热条件下常规的 "无盐 "性质。在较细颗粒（0.10-0.30 毫米）中，盐的快速沉积导致蒸发率急剧下降，而在中等和较粗颗粒中，蒸发率最初呈线性上升，然后在第一阶段呈指数上升，这是因为在相互连接的空隙中出现了沉淀点，形成了明显的湿斑，在红外成像中可见。尽管存在差异，但在所有情况下，第 1 阶段都覆盖了 80% 的暴露表面（2.00-2.50 毫米的情况除外，因为毛细作用力较弱）。与纯水情况不同，毛细管蒸发长度与颗粒大小呈非线性趋势，最大值出现在 0.70-0.85 毫米的情况下，有趣的是，与 "无盐 "情况下的值相似。

{"title":"Evaporation characteristics and salt deposition dynamics from a homogeneous porous medium consisting of mono-disperse glass beads under controlled IR heating from above","authors":"Shivani Chauhan, Navneet Kumar","doi":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104964","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104964","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present study experimentally investigated the evaporation-precipitation dynamics at sub-millimetric to millimetric scales in 1 M NaCl salt-DI water solution-based homogeneous porous media consisting of nearly mono-disperse glass beads (ranging from 0.10 to 2.50 mm) under controlled infrared heating from above, mimicking realistic field scenarios. Three diagnostic tools were employed simultaneously: mass loss measurements using a precision weighing balance, surface temperature measurements using an IR camera, and optical imaging (at times with fluorescein dye) for visualization purposes. In all the cases, salt precipitates around <span><math><mrow><mo>∼</mo><mn>0.97</mn></mrow></math></span> of saturation. Experimental results show a strong interdependence between evaporation and salt deposition, significantly influenced by the particle sizes. For 0.70–0.85 mm case, evaporation characteristics with and without salt were found to be similar. For 0.40–0.60 mm and 0.70–0.85 mm cases, a constant evaporation rate persisted for <span><math><mo>∼</mo></math></span>4–5 h at <span><math><mo>∼</mo></math></span>1,000W/m<sup>2</sup> of incident heat flux, deviating from the regular ‘No Salt’ nature under external heating. In finer particles (0.10–0.30 mm), rapid salt deposition led to a steep fall in evaporation rate, while in medium and coarser sizes, it initially increased linearly, then exponentially during Stage 1 due to emerging precipitation sites within interconnected voids forming distinct wet patch, visible in IR imaging. Despite variations, <span><math><mo>∼</mo></math></span>80 % of the exposed surface was covered during Stage 1 (except the 2.00–2.50 mm case due to weak capillary forces) in all the cases. Unlike pure water cases, the evaporative capillary length shows a non-linear trend with particle size with maximum value appearing for 0.70–0.85 mm case, interestingly similar to the value for the ‘No Salt’ case.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7614,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Water Resources","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 104964"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143851982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Péclet number and transport length dependences of dispersion and dispersivity coefficients during the transition to Fickian transport in homogeneous sands

IF 4 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Advances in Water Resources

Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104975

Kuldeep Singh , Victor Obi

This experimental study systematically investigates the influence of the Peclet number (Pe) and transport length on the transition to Fickian transport in homogeneous sand packs. Through Darcy column experiments with varying lengths and two distinct sediment sizes (d₅₀), we analyzed breakthrough curves (BTCs) to quantify non-Fickian characteristics and transport parameters. The dispersion coefficient exhibited an asymptotic transition to steady-state values between transport lengths of 0.91 m and 1.83 m, coinciding with a shift from heavy-tailed residence time distributions (RTDs) towards inverse Gaussian (Fickian) behavior. Non-Fickian attributes (quantified by skewness) scale with Pe via a power-law relationship, with exponents decreasing as transport length increases. During non-Fickian transport, the dispersion coefficient exhibited nonlinear power-law relationships with Pe, with the power-law exponent converging to ∼1 as transport length increased, consistent with hydrodynamic dispersion theory in the mechanical transport regime. The dispersivity coefficient (α) showed weak Pe dependence only in the non-Fickian regime and became Pe-independent under Fickian conditions. No significant length scale dependence of α was observed between 0.18 m and 1.83 m. This study demonstrates that extrapolating dispersivity from shorter length scales can be unreliable, as convergence to Fickian behavior requires transport lengths or solute transport representative elementary volume (REV) of at least 1 m These findings emphasize the need for longer experimental setups to determine asymptotic transport coefficients consistent with Fickian solute transport theory in porous media.

{"title":"Péclet number and transport length dependences of dispersion and dispersivity coefficients during the transition to Fickian transport in homogeneous sands","authors":"Kuldeep Singh , Victor Obi","doi":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104975","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104975","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This experimental study systematically investigates the influence of the Peclet number (<em>Pe</em>) and transport length on the transition to Fickian transport in homogeneous sand packs. Through Darcy column experiments with varying lengths and two distinct sediment sizes (<em>d</em><sub>50</sub>), we analyzed breakthrough curves (BTCs) to quantify non-Fickian characteristics and transport parameters. The dispersion coefficient exhibited an asymptotic transition to steady-state values between transport lengths of 0.91 m and 1.83 m, coinciding with a shift from heavy-tailed residence time distributions (RTDs) towards inverse Gaussian (Fickian) behavior. Non-Fickian attributes (quantified by skewness) scale with <em>Pe</em> via a power-law relationship, with exponents decreasing as transport length increases. During non-Fickian transport, the dispersion coefficient exhibited nonlinear power-law relationships with <em>Pe</em>, with the power-law exponent converging to ∼1 as transport length increased, consistent with hydrodynamic dispersion theory in the mechanical transport regime. The dispersivity coefficient (α) showed weak <em>Pe</em> dependence <em>only</em> in the non-Fickian regime and became <em>Pe</em>-independent under Fickian conditions. No significant length scale dependence of α was observed between 0.18 m and 1.83 m. This study demonstrates that extrapolating dispersivity from shorter length scales can be unreliable, as convergence to Fickian behavior requires transport lengths or solute transport representative elementary volume (REV) of at least 1 m These findings emphasize the need for longer experimental setups to determine asymptotic transport coefficients consistent with Fickian solute transport theory in porous media.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7614,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Water Resources","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 104975"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143823812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Flow in a falaj (qanat) in an unconfined aquifer system considering the head loss inside the falaj, arbitrary trajectory of falaj, and areal recharge

IF 4 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Advances in Water Resources

Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104973

Mohammad M Sedghi , Azizallah Izady , Ali Al-Maktoumi , Mingjie Chen , Hongbin Zhan

A falaj (plural aflaj) (also known as qanat) is a type of horizontal or nearly horizontal well that extracts water from an aquifer by gravity. Despite their importance, aflaj with arbitrary trajectories has not yet been mathematically modeled. Moreover, the available analytical models do not include the effects of several head losses, including head loss inside the falaj due to friction with the inner falaj wall, change of flow direction from the aquifer to the falaj, acceleration due to a change in velocity and minor loss caused by change of the falaj direction. Driven by these knowledge gaps, this study aims to develop a semi-analytical solution for the discharge variations of a falaj with an arbitrary trajectory subjected to arbitrary areal recharge. To obtain the solution, the point sink/source solution of groundwater drawdown in an unconfined aquifer is modified to simulate the drawdown due to the specified flux line sink/source of arbitrary trajectory that is known as a snake well. Then, the specified-flux line sink/source solution is converted into an equivalent specified-head line sink/source via well-screen segmentation. Finally, the Darcy–Weisbach equation, along with equations associated with the minor head loss due to the change of flow direction, is employed to simulate the head variation inside the falaj. This study finds that the hydraulic diffusivity of the aquifer and the length of the falaj significantly affect discharge; the trajectory of the falaj affects its late-time discharge, and head loss in falaj tends to mask the influences of its geometric parameters. Furthermore, the presented model can be employed to determine if it is possible to reduce the discharge of a falaj during the wet season when the groundwater is not needed without affecting the dry season discharge.

{"title":"Flow in a falaj (qanat) in an unconfined aquifer system considering the head loss inside the falaj, arbitrary trajectory of falaj, and areal recharge","authors":"Mohammad M Sedghi , Azizallah Izady , Ali Al-Maktoumi , Mingjie Chen , Hongbin Zhan","doi":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104973","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104973","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A falaj (plural <em>aflaj</em>) (also known as qanat) is a type of horizontal or nearly horizontal well that extracts water from an aquifer by gravity. Despite their importance, aflaj with arbitrary trajectories has not yet been mathematically modeled. Moreover, the available analytical models do not include the effects of several head losses, including head loss inside the falaj due to friction with the inner falaj wall, change of flow direction from the aquifer to the falaj, acceleration due to a change in velocity and minor loss caused by change of the falaj direction. Driven by these knowledge gaps, this study aims to develop a semi-analytical solution for the discharge variations of a falaj with an arbitrary trajectory subjected to arbitrary areal recharge. To obtain the solution, the point sink/source solution of groundwater drawdown in an unconfined aquifer is modified to simulate the drawdown due to the specified flux line sink/source of arbitrary trajectory that is known as a snake well. Then, the specified-flux line sink/source solution is converted into an equivalent specified-head line sink/source via well-screen segmentation. Finally, the Darcy–Weisbach equation, along with equations associated with the minor head loss due to the change of flow direction, is employed to simulate the head variation inside the falaj. This study finds that the hydraulic diffusivity of the aquifer and the length of the falaj significantly affect discharge; the trajectory of the falaj affects its late-time discharge, and head loss in falaj tends to mask the influences of its geometric parameters. Furthermore, the presented model can be employed to determine if it is possible to reduce the discharge of a falaj during the wet season when the groundwater is not needed without affecting the dry season discharge.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7614,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Water Resources","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 104973"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143842869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0