Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on inbound air travel to Canada.

Vanessa Gabriele-Rivet, Erin Rees, Afnan Rahman, Rachael M Milwid
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Abstract

Background: Commercial air travel can result in global dispersal of infectious diseases. During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, many countries implemented border measures, including restrictions on air travel, to reduce the importation risk of COVID-19. In the context of inbound air travel to Canada, this study aimed to: 1) characterize travel trends before and during the pandemic, and 2) statistically assess the association between travel volumes and travel restrictions during the pandemic.

Methods: Monthly commercial air travel volume data from March 2017 to February 2023 were obtained from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). National and airport-level travel trends to Canada were characterized by inbound travel volumes, the number of countries contributing travellers and the ranking of the top ten countries contributing travellers across the study period, by six year-length subperiod groupings (three pre-pandemic and three pandemic). Using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models, interrupted time series (ITS) analyses assessed the association between major travel restrictions and travel volumes by including variables to represent changes to the level and slope of the time series.

Results: The pre-pandemic inbound travel volume increased by 3% to 7% between consecutive subperiods, with three seasonal peaks (July-August, December-January, March). At the onset of the pandemic, travel volume decreased by 90%, with the number of contributing countries declining from approximately 200 to 140, followed by a slow recovery in volume and seasonality. A disruption in the ranking of countries that contributed travellers was also noticeable during the pandemic. Results from the ITS analysis aligned with the timing of travel restrictions as follows: implementation in March 2020 coincided with a sharp reduction in volumes, while the easing of major restrictions, starting with the authorization of fully vaccinated travellers from the United States to enter Canada in August 2021, coincided with an increase in the slope of travel volumes. Descriptive and statistical results suggest a near-return of pre-pandemic travel patterns by the end of the study period.

Conclusion: Study results suggest resilience in commercial air travel into Canada. Although the COVID-19 pandemic led to a disruption in travel trends, easing of travel restrictions appeared to enable pre-pandemic trends to re-emerge. Understanding trends in air travel volumes, as demonstrated here, can provide information that supports preparedness and response regarding importation risk of infectious pathogens.

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COVID-19 大流行对加拿大入境航空旅行的影响。
背景:商业航空旅行可能导致传染病在全球范围内传播。在冠状病毒病 2019(COVID-19)大流行期间,许多国家实施了边境措施,包括限制航空旅行,以降低 COVID-19 的输入风险。针对加拿大的入境航空旅行,本研究旨在1)描述大流行之前和期间的旅行趋势;2)统计评估大流行期间旅行量与旅行限制之间的关联:从国际航空运输协会(IATA)获得了 2017 年 3 月至 2023 年 2 月的每月商业航空旅行量数据。加拿大国家和机场层面的旅行趋势以入境旅行量、贡献旅行者的国家数量以及整个研究期间贡献旅行者最多的前十个国家的排名为特征,按六年长度的子时期分组(三个大流行前时期和三个大流行时期)。利用季节性自回归综合移动平均(SARIMA)模型和间断时间序列(ITS)分析评估了主要旅行限制措施与旅行量之间的关联,其中包括代表时间序列水平和斜率变化的变量:结果:大流行前的入境旅行量在连续的分时段之间增加了 3% 至 7%,并出现了三个季节性高峰(7 月至 8 月、12 月至 1 月、3 月)。大流行开始时,旅行量减少了 90%,派遣国数量从约 200 个减少到 140 个,随后旅行量和季节性缓慢恢复。在大流行病期间,提供旅行者的国家排名也发生了明显的变化。ITS 分析的结果与旅行限制的时间相吻合:2020 年 3 月实施限制的同时,旅行量急剧下降,而从 2021 年 8 月美国批准已接种全部疫苗的旅行者进入加拿大开始,主要限制措施的放松与旅行量斜率的上升相吻合。描述性和统计结果表明,到研究期结束时,大流行前的旅行模式将接近恢复:研究结果表明,加拿大的商业航空旅行具有恢复力。尽管 COVID-19 大流行导致了旅行趋势的中断,但旅行限制的放松似乎使大流行前的趋势得以重新出现。了解航空旅行量的趋势(如本文所示)可提供相关信息,帮助做好准备并应对传染病病原体的输入风险。
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