Defining, identifying, and estimating causal effects with the potential outcomes framework: a review for education research

IF 2.3 3区 教育学 Q1 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Asia Pacific Education Review Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI:10.1007/s12564-024-09957-2
Bryan Keller, Zach Branson
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Abstract

Causal inference involves determining whether a treatment (e.g., an education program) causes a change in outcomes (e.g., academic achievement). It is well-known that causal effects are more challenging to estimate than associations. Over the past 50 years, the potential outcomes framework has become one of the most widely used approaches for defining, identifying, and estimating causal effects. In this paper, we review the potential outcomes framework with a focus on potential outcomes notation to define individual and average causal effects. We then show how three canonical assumptions, Unconfoundedness, Positivity, and Consistency, may be used to identify average causal effects. The identification results motivate methods for estimating causal effects in practice, which include model-based estimators, such as regression, inverse probability weighting, and doubly robust estimation, and procedures that target covariate balance, such as matching and stratification. Examples and discussion are grounded in the context of a running example of a study aimed at assessing the causal effect of receipt of special education services on 5th grade mathematics achievement in school-aged children. Practical considerations for education research are discussed.

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用潜在成果框架定义、识别和估计因果效应:教育研究综述
因果推断涉及确定一种处理方法(如教育计划)是否会导致结果(如学业成绩)的改变。众所周知,因果效应比关联效应更难估计。在过去的 50 年中,潜在结果框架已成为定义、识别和估算因果效应最广泛使用的方法之一。在本文中,我们回顾了潜在结果框架,重点介绍了定义个体和平均因果效应的潜在结果符号。然后,我们将展示如何利用三个典型假设--无界性、正向性和一致性--来识别平均因果效应。识别结果激发了在实践中估计因果效应的方法,其中包括基于模型的估计方法,如回归、反概率加权和双重稳健估计,以及针对协变量平衡的程序,如匹配和分层。研究实例和讨论以一项研究为例,该研究旨在评估接受特殊教育服务对学龄儿童五年级数学成绩的因果影响。还讨论了教育研究的实际考虑因素。
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来源期刊
Asia Pacific Education Review
Asia Pacific Education Review EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH-
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
4.30%
发文量
64
期刊介绍: The Asia Pacific Education Review (APER) aims to stimulate research, encourage academic exchange, and enhance the professional development of scholars and other researchers who are interested in educational and cultural issues in the Asia Pacific region. APER covers all areas of educational research, with a focus on cross-cultural, comparative and other studies with a broad Asia-Pacific context. APER is a peer reviewed journal produced by the Education Research Institute at Seoul National University. It was founded by the Institute of Asia Pacific Education Development, Seoul National University in 2000, which is owned and operated by Education Research Institute at Seoul National University since 2003. APER requires all submitted manuscripts to follow the seventh edition of the Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association (APA; http://www.apastyle.org/index.aspx).
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