The AfCFTA tariff offers: Current state and first revelations about members' stances towards openness and protectionism

Ole Boysen
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Abstract

Most signatories of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement have submitted tariff concession offers, as published on the AfCFTA Secretariat's website. Over a year since the AfCFTA came into effect, it is time to take stock of these submissions and assess the data with respect to members' stances towards fostering intra‐African trade through openness on the one hand and maintaining protection against competing imports and revenues from import tariffs on the other. Combining the offers with corresponding trade and tariff data, we find that there are both significant data gaps and inconsistencies with the AfCFTA's trade liberalisation modalities and the trade classification standard. Constructing two tariff schedules, one which repairs the offers for compliance with the modalities and another that maximises the import tariff revenue retained as a benchmark, the analysis confirms that the modalities require regions to liberalise strongly, but most opt to liberalise even more and earlier than necessary. Stances towards freer trade, however, differ markedly between regions. Deriving a measure of liberalisation stance from the schedules above and associating it with trade, economic and geographic indicators reveals patterns that suggest potential motivations for the stances of some country groups.
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非洲自由贸易区关税优惠:成员国对开放和保护主义态度的现状和初步启示
非洲大陆自由贸易区(AfCFTA)协定的大多数签署国都提交了关税减让提议,这些提议已在非洲大陆自由贸易区秘书处的网站上公布。非洲大陆自由贸易区协定生效已一年有余,现在是时候对这些提议进行总结,并评估各成员在通过开放促进非洲内部贸易和保持对竞争性进口产品的保护以及进口关税收入方面的立场数据。将这些提议与相应的贸易和关税数据结合起来,我们发现,非洲自由贸易区的贸易自由化模式和贸易分类标准存在重大的数据缺口和不一致。分析证实,贸易自由化模式要求各地区大力实行自由化,但大多数地区却选择了更多的自由化,而且比必要的时间更早。然而,各地区对更自由贸易的立场却明显不同。从上述时间表中得出自由化立场的衡量标准,并将其与贸易、经济和地理指标联系起来,可以发现一些国家集团立场的潜在动机。
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