Investigating the cause of a 2021 winter wave of COVID-19 in a border region in eastern Germany: a mixed-methods study, August to November 2021.

IF 2.5 4区医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2024-05-16 DOI:10.1017/S0950268824000761

Buqing Yi, Eva Patrasová, Lenka Šimůnková, Fabian Rost, Sylke Winkler, Alexa Laubner, Susanne Reinhardt, Andreas Dahl, Alexander H Dalpke

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Abstract

It is so far unclear how the COVID-19 winter waves started and what should be done to prevent possible future waves. In this study, we deciphered the dynamic course of a winter wave in 2021 in Saxony, a state in Eastern Germany neighbouring the Czech Republic and Poland. The study was carried out through the integration of multiple virus genomic epidemiology approaches to track transmission chains, identify emerging variants and investigate dynamic changes in transmission clusters. For identified local variants of interest, functional evaluations were performed. Multiple long-lasting community transmission clusters have been identified acting as driving force for the winter wave 2021. Analysis of the dynamic courses of two representative clusters indicated a similar transmission pattern. However, the transmission cluster caused by a locally occurring new Delta variant AY.36.1 showed a distinct transmission pattern, and functional analyses revealed a replication advantage of it. This study indicated that long-lasting community transmission clusters starting since early autumn caused by imported or locally occurring variants all contributed to the development of the 2021 winter wave. The information we achieved might help future pandemic prevention.

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调查 2021 年德国东部边境地区 COVID-19 冬季流行的原因：一项混合方法研究，2021 年 8 月至 11 月。

迄今为止，我们还不清楚 COVID-19 冬季波是如何开始的，也不清楚应该采取什么措施来预防未来可能出现的冬季波。在这项研究中，我们破译了 2021 年萨克森州冬季疫潮的动态过程，萨克森州位于德国东部，毗邻捷克共和国和波兰。这项研究通过整合多种病毒基因组流行病学方法来追踪传播链、识别新出现的变种并调查传播集群的动态变化。对于已确定的本地相关变异株，还进行了功能评估。已确定多个长期存在的社区传播集群是 2021 年冬季浪潮的驱动力。对两个代表性集群的动态过程分析表明，其传播模式相似。然而，由当地出现的新三角洲变体 AY.36.1 引起的传播集群显示出独特的传播模式，功能分析显示其具有复制优势。这项研究表明，由外来变异体或本地变异体引起的从初秋开始的持续时间较长的群落传播集群对 2021 年冬季疫潮的发展起到了推波助澜的作用。我们获得的信息可能有助于未来的流行病预防。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Epidemiology and Infection 医学-传染病学

CiteScore

4.10

自引率

2.40%

发文量

366

审稿时长

3-6 weeks

期刊介绍： Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.