Forecast combination in agricultural economics: Past, present, and the future

IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-16 DOI:10.1002/aepp.13445
A. Ford Ramsey, Michael K. Adjemian
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Abstract

Forecasts are common in agricultural settings where they are routinely used for decision-making. The advent of the computer age has allowed for rapid generation of individual forecasts that can be updated in real time. It is well known that the selection and use of a single forecast can expose the forecaster to serious error as a result of model mis-specification. Forecast combination avoids this problem by combining information from different forecasts. Although forecast combination can be as simple as averaging across forecasts, advances in machine learning have made it possible to combine forecasts according to more complicated weighting schemes and criteria. We provide an overview of forecast combination techniques, including those at the frontier of current practice and involving machine learning. We also provide a retrospective on the use of forecast combination in agricultural economics and prospects for the future. Several of the techniques are illustrated in an application to forecasting nationwide corn and soybean planted acreage and we demonstrate how forecast combination can improve expert USDA projections.

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农业经济学中的预测组合:过去、现在和未来
预测在农业环境中很常见,通常用于决策。计算机时代的到来,使人们能够快速生成可实时更新的单项预测。众所周知,选择和使用单一预报可能会使预报员因模型规格错误而出现严重错误。预测组合通过综合不同预测的信息来避免这一问题。虽然预测组合可以是简单的跨预测平均,但机器学习的进步使得根据更复杂的加权方案和标准组合预测成为可能。我们概述了预测组合技术,包括那些处于当前实践前沿并涉及机器学习的技术。我们还回顾了预测组合在农业经济学中的应用,并展望了未来。在预测全国玉米和大豆种植面积的应用中,我们对其中几种技术进行了说明,并展示了预测组合如何改进美国农业部的专家预测。
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来源期刊
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY-
CiteScore
10.70
自引率
6.90%
发文量
117
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy provides a forum to address contemporary and emerging policy issues within an economic framework that informs the decision-making and policy-making community. AEPP welcomes submissions related to the economics of public policy themes associated with agriculture; animal, plant, and human health; energy; environment; food and consumer behavior; international development; natural hazards; natural resources; population and migration; and regional and rural development.
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