Simulation and multi-scenario prediction of land-use change in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin, China

Abstract

Introduction: The Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin is an important water resource conservation and replenishment area for the entire Yellow River Basin. With urbanization and socio-economic development, it is urgent to study the characteristics of land-use change and its future simulation in order to realize the coordinated ecological and economic development.Methods: Based on the patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model, this paper investigated the main drivers of land-use type expansion with a comprehensive consideration of natural and socio-economic aspects; moreover, the study simulated land-use change in 2030 under the four scenarios of natural development, cultivated land protection, ecological priority, and economic construction.Results: The results showed the following: 1) the prediction of land-use types continued the historical evolution since 1980. Grassland, cultivated land, and forest land were still the dominant land types, accounting for more than 87% of the basin’s total area. Water bodies and wetlands remained relatively stable, and there was an obvious increase of approximately 20% in construction land. 2) Construction land and grassland were primarily driven by the social factor of the distance from the primary road and the distance from the secondary road, respectively. The cultivated land was greatly affected by the economic factor of population density. 3) The cultivated land protection scenario was the only one of the four scenarios that could make the cultivated land area increase positively, with an increase rate of 0.5%. This scenario also restricted effectively the conversion of cultivated land into construction land. The ecological priority scenario can expand grassland obviously with a proportion of 1.82% and slow down oasis desertion. The economic construction scenario can increase the construction land area the most by a rate of 25.5% to accelerate the economic development of specific regions in the study area.Discussion: Therefore, implementing policies on the basis of choosing suitable scenarios in different areas was significant for optimizing the land-use structure, promoting the efficient use of land resources and ecological environment in the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin.