Modelling Time to Recovery from Multidrug Resistant Tuberculosis in Southern Ethiopia

Abstract

Introduction: Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a global heath threat, resistant to key anti-TB drugs.  It is ranked among the top 10 causes of death worldwide. Therefore, the current study investigated time to recovery from MDR-TB in southern Ethiopia. Data, Materials and Methods: Restrospective data from selected hospitals in SNNPR (January 2016 to December 2021) were analyzed. A cluster sample of 301 MDR-TB patients (131 NEMMCH, 121 BH, 49 AGH) was considered. Results: Among the 301 cases, 116 (38.5%) were censored. While 185 (61.5%) were recovered. Parametric shared frailty models were employed to account unobserved heterogeneity among the Hospitals and patients and AFT models were employed. the median recovery time of MDR-TB is 22 months. The clustering effect of frailty model was hospitals. Weibull-gamma shared frailty model was appropriate for this data. Conclusion: The final model showed that males have higher recovery rates than females. Extra pulmonary MDR-TB and Urban residency correleted with  longer recovery times.  The recovery rate increases with increasing baseline weight, education level, and occupation. But, the recovery rate decreases with smoking, co-morbidities, previous drug history, history of TB, and alcohol use Recommendation: All concerned bodies should be cognizant on the risk factors of MDR-TB in SNNP region By providing on early case detection and appropriate treatment of drug-susceptible MDR-TB, since it is essential to shorten the recovery time of MDR-TB patients in line with WHO guidelines