Estimating restaurants’ unconstrained demand: a systematic approach to reducing structural bias in forecast accuracy measures

Abstract

Purpose The diffusion of technologies from other sectors, and innovations in kitchen equipment, fueled structural changes within the foodservice industry. However, this change comes at a price of disrupting the critical step of assessing the demand forecast accuracy. This study aims to explore a surprisingly unique and elevated complexity when assessing the critically important demand forecast accuracy. Design/methodology/approach The paper develops a mathematical model to describe and explore the nature of the problem in structural biased demand forecast accuracy assessment. It then uses numerical simulation to construct a market example to gain better insights on the bias characteristics. Finally, the forecast accuracy measurement’s inherent bias is contrasted with that of other typical hospitality forecasting setups. Findings This paper outlines the theoretical underpinnings of how demand forecasts in the central kitchen setup are dynamic and thus produce a structural bias. More specifically, this paper discovers how, in this context of orders from a central location, the forecasts set the capacity constraints, and, consequently, generate a considerably more biased forecast accuracy measure. Relying on such forecast accuracy measures can lead to serious negative business outcomes. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to show that in the unique new technology enabled environment of central kitchen operation, where daily dish demand forecasts set the daily constrained capacity levels, the accuracy measure is severely biased, and consequently accuracy is likely to deteriorate, which in turn, could lead to suboptimal decisions. The major theoretical contribution of this study is a novel analytical model which explains and describes the bias in the accuracy measurement.