Unlikely Alliances: How the Wars in Karabakh And Gaza Shape Northwest Asian Security

Abstract

This study analyzes how ongoing conflicts in the Levant and the post-Soviet South Caucasus have upset the balance of relationships among Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Israel, Turkey, and Russia—and how this could escalate into a major, cross-regional war. Azerbaijan's military victories of 2020 and 2023 over the Armenia-occupied, separatist republic of Nagorno-Karabakh have antagonized Iran, which has seen these gains, coupled with Baku's increasingly revanchist rhetoric, as a major threat to regional security. With Armenia left on its own by its Russian ally, and with Turkey's and Israel's backing of Azerbaijan, the Gaza war has driven Iran to see Baku as a dangerous “Israeli asset.” However, the Palestine conflict has also sparked a rift between Turkey and Israel, throwing into question Baku's strength. If the militarist rhetoric of Azerbaijani elites leads the state to invade its weakened neighbor Armenia, this will increase the potential for a military confrontation between the two Shiite nations of Azerbaijan and Iran, with Armenia, Turkey, Israel, and Russia likely to be dragged in.