Impact of Goods and Service Tax on MSME Sector: A Study Using Artificial Neural Network and Multivariate Analysis of Variance

Neba Bhalla, Inderjit Kaur, Rakesh Kumar Sharma
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Abstract

Micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) is one the vital sector of the developing economy. Changes in fiscal policy directly impact this sector the most. The present article aims to examine the impact of the recent Indian indirect system tax overhaul, that is, Goods and Service Tax (GST), on the MSME sector. We have employed multivariate analysis of variance and multi-layer perceptron neural network on the extensive data set for 60 months from April 2015 to March 2020. The empirical findings state that a significant increase has been observed in the MSMEs’ export, revenue generation and gross domestic product in the post-GST era. The findings may aid the emerging economies that are planning to alter tax systems to boost the MSME sector at the international level. JEL Codes: H20, L00, B22, C01, C45
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商品和服务税对微小中型企业部门的影响:使用人工神经网络和多元方差分析的研究
微型、小型和中型企业(MSME)是发展中经济的重要部门之一。财政政策的变化对这一部门的影响最大。本文旨在研究印度最近的间接税制度改革,即商品和服务税(GST),对微小中型企业部门的影响。我们对 2015 年 4 月至 2020 年 3 月 60 个月的大量数据集采用了多元方差分析和多层感知器神经网络。实证研究结果表明,在后商品及服务税时代,微小中型企业的出口、创收和国内生产总值都出现了显著增长。这些研究结果可能会对那些计划改变税制以在国际上促进中小微企业发展的新兴经济体有所帮助。JEL Codes:H20, L00, B22, C01, C45
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