GHG mitigation strategies on China’s diverse dish consumption are key to meet the Paris Agreement targets

Abstract

Combatting climate change depends on demand-side mitigation strategies related to food, which is in turn contingent on explicit estimation and management of dish-level emissions. Here, on the basis of a bottom-up integrated emissions framework, we first estimate the greenhouse gas emissions of 540 dishes from 36 cuisines using data from over 800,488 restaurants in China’s provincial capital cities. By mining residents’ dietary preferences, we then design various dietary change strategies to explicitly link food emissions to the Paris Agreement pledges. The results show that China’s food system greenhouse gas emissions were approximately 4.64 GtCO2eq in 2020, accounting for 37% of total emissions, with average per-dish emissions of 8.44 kgCO2eq. Current emission patterns of food consumption in China may not be consistent with the attainment of the 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate targets, but transitioning towards low-emission cuisines and dishes could change that by reducing emissions by 38–69%. Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions related to food consumption typically consider ingredients, rather than final dishes. This study combines over 500 real-life restaurant menu dishes with data on 170 million consumed meals in China, highlighting the potential of consumers to mitigate climate change through modifications in their eating patterns.