Pub Date : 2026-02-06DOI: 10.1038/s43016-026-01302-7
Huijiao Chen, Shuo Wang, Peng Zhu, Amir AghaKouchak
Global crop productivity heavily relies on snow availability, which has declined in many snow-dependent regions due to warmer winters and intensified snow droughts. However, our understanding of crop yield sensitivity to snow droughts remains limited. Here we show that winter wheat croplands have experienced an increase in snow drought frequency (5.3-6.7% more events per decade) from 1960 to 2020. To assess the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to snow droughts, we utilized explainable machine learning, gridded yield datasets and the standardized snow water equivalent index from 1982 to 2016. Our findings reveal a significant increase in yield sensitivity to snow water equivalent index over 25% of Northern Hemisphere winter wheat croplands. Elevated fertilizer application rates, increased freezing stress and slightly decreased precipitation are identified as primary drivers amplifying this sensitivity. These findings highlight the increasing vulnerability of crop systems to snow droughts, which is critical for guiding agricultural adaptation in a warming future with reduced snowpack.
{"title":"Winter wheat yield sensitivity to snow drought is increasing across the Northern Hemisphere.","authors":"Huijiao Chen, Shuo Wang, Peng Zhu, Amir AghaKouchak","doi":"10.1038/s43016-026-01302-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-026-01302-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Global crop productivity heavily relies on snow availability, which has declined in many snow-dependent regions due to warmer winters and intensified snow droughts. However, our understanding of crop yield sensitivity to snow droughts remains limited. Here we show that winter wheat croplands have experienced an increase in snow drought frequency (5.3-6.7% more events per decade) from 1960 to 2020. To assess the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to snow droughts, we utilized explainable machine learning, gridded yield datasets and the standardized snow water equivalent index from 1982 to 2016. Our findings reveal a significant increase in yield sensitivity to snow water equivalent index over 25% of Northern Hemisphere winter wheat croplands. Elevated fertilizer application rates, increased freezing stress and slightly decreased precipitation are identified as primary drivers amplifying this sensitivity. These findings highlight the increasing vulnerability of crop systems to snow droughts, which is critical for guiding agricultural adaptation in a warming future with reduced snowpack.</p>","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146133748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-28DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01276-y
Oliver Taherzadeh, Hongyi Cai, José M. Mogollón
The diversity of farms and farmers that operate in national food supply chains remains poorly understood. This study couples country-sector-specific agricultural production patterns with agri-food trade data to offer a global assessment of how different farmers contribute towards national food consumption. Here results show that the contribution of farmers to national food supply chains bears little resemblance to their territorial production owing to countries’ reliance on, and export to, other countries with different agricultural systems. Specifically, the role of small-scale farmers in national food consumption has been substantially underestimated, particularly in high-income nations, where small farms account for about a third of consumption. By contrast, in regions where small-scale agriculture is widely practised (for example, West Asia, North Africa and East Africa), agricultural imports originate from countries and sectors dominated by large-scale farming. Future research must account for the differentiated roles, impacts and vulnerabilities of farmers beyond national borders. The contribution of farmers to domestic food production is a poor proxy for their role in national food consumption. This study reveals that the importance of small farms in meeting the food needs of high-income nations has been underestimated.
{"title":"Small farms contribute a third of the food consumed in high-income nations","authors":"Oliver Taherzadeh, Hongyi Cai, José M. Mogollón","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01276-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01276-y","url":null,"abstract":"The diversity of farms and farmers that operate in national food supply chains remains poorly understood. This study couples country-sector-specific agricultural production patterns with agri-food trade data to offer a global assessment of how different farmers contribute towards national food consumption. Here results show that the contribution of farmers to national food supply chains bears little resemblance to their territorial production owing to countries’ reliance on, and export to, other countries with different agricultural systems. Specifically, the role of small-scale farmers in national food consumption has been substantially underestimated, particularly in high-income nations, where small farms account for about a third of consumption. By contrast, in regions where small-scale agriculture is widely practised (for example, West Asia, North Africa and East Africa), agricultural imports originate from countries and sectors dominated by large-scale farming. Future research must account for the differentiated roles, impacts and vulnerabilities of farmers beyond national borders. The contribution of farmers to domestic food production is a poor proxy for their role in national food consumption. This study reveals that the importance of small farms in meeting the food needs of high-income nations has been underestimated.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"7 1","pages":"66-73"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146057184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-26DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01290-0
Catalina Cuparencu, Christian Diener, Thomas Wilson, Sean M. Gibbons, Desiree A. Lucassen
Diet is a key determinant of human and planetary health, but accurately measuring dietary intake remains challenging. Traditional self-reporting tools are imprecise, compromising our ability to accurately link diets with health outcomes. Modern technologies, including smartphone apps, image-based methods and biomarkers of food intake (BFIs), offer promise but bring their own caveats. App- and image-based methods reduce bias and reporting burden, but remain partly self-reported, and are thus prone to errors similar to those of traditional methods. Omics-based BFIs (that is, metabolites, food-related DNA or food proteins) are objective measures derived from biological samples; however, they mostly reflect recent intake, and require careful sampling alignment to estimate habitual diets. Here we discuss the drawbacks and opportunities for all dietary tools and propose strategies to integrate technologies along with multisampling for longitudinal measurements, for a new era in dietary assessment that can clarify the impact of diets, dietary components and dietary behaviour on human and planetary health. Accurately measuring dietary intake has long been a challenge in nutrition research. Integrating emerging tools with multisampling strategies and a dietary assessment methodology aligned with the research aims enables a more objective and comprehensive evaluation of dietary behaviours—and a deeper understanding of diets’ impact on human and planetary health.
{"title":"Integration of modern technologies to advance dietary assessment","authors":"Catalina Cuparencu, Christian Diener, Thomas Wilson, Sean M. Gibbons, Desiree A. Lucassen","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01290-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01290-0","url":null,"abstract":"Diet is a key determinant of human and planetary health, but accurately measuring dietary intake remains challenging. Traditional self-reporting tools are imprecise, compromising our ability to accurately link diets with health outcomes. Modern technologies, including smartphone apps, image-based methods and biomarkers of food intake (BFIs), offer promise but bring their own caveats. App- and image-based methods reduce bias and reporting burden, but remain partly self-reported, and are thus prone to errors similar to those of traditional methods. Omics-based BFIs (that is, metabolites, food-related DNA or food proteins) are objective measures derived from biological samples; however, they mostly reflect recent intake, and require careful sampling alignment to estimate habitual diets. Here we discuss the drawbacks and opportunities for all dietary tools and propose strategies to integrate technologies along with multisampling for longitudinal measurements, for a new era in dietary assessment that can clarify the impact of diets, dietary components and dietary behaviour on human and planetary health. Accurately measuring dietary intake has long been a challenge in nutrition research. Integrating emerging tools with multisampling strategies and a dietary assessment methodology aligned with the research aims enables a more objective and comprehensive evaluation of dietary behaviours—and a deeper understanding of diets’ impact on human and planetary health.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"7 1","pages":"17-26"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146070065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-26DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01275-z
Sinafekesh Girma Wolde, Paolo D’Odorico, Maria Cristina Rulli
Global hydroclimatic extremes are drivers of human displacement in Africa, particularly within farming, pastoralist and agropastoralist communities. Somalia experienced five consecutive failed rainy seasons in recent years and is strongly impacted by drought and food insecurity. Here we develop a holistic analysis of geospatial data, demographic surveys, hydrological modelling and multivariate spatial analysis to examine the multi-faceted challenges posed by agricultural water scarcity, food insecurity and drought on environmental migration trends in Somalia. We fill reporting gaps arising from limited humanitarian access and data collection, documenting departure location and reasons underlying individual decisions to move from over 40,000 cases. We find that, between 2015 and 2021, 76–91% of environmental migrants departed from statistically significant multivariate hot spots of drought, food insecurity and agricultural water scarcity, highlighting the urgent need for integrated strategies that address water availability for food security and proactive interventions and policies in areas most susceptible to compounded hydroclimatic variability impacts. Environmental migration drivers in Somalia are spatially analysed, demonstrating that multivariate hydroclimatic events impacting agricultural production lead to the migration or displacement of the impacted residents to avoid food insecurity.
{"title":"More than three-quarters of environmental migration in Somalia is driven by water deficiency for food and livestock production","authors":"Sinafekesh Girma Wolde, Paolo D’Odorico, Maria Cristina Rulli","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01275-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01275-z","url":null,"abstract":"Global hydroclimatic extremes are drivers of human displacement in Africa, particularly within farming, pastoralist and agropastoralist communities. Somalia experienced five consecutive failed rainy seasons in recent years and is strongly impacted by drought and food insecurity. Here we develop a holistic analysis of geospatial data, demographic surveys, hydrological modelling and multivariate spatial analysis to examine the multi-faceted challenges posed by agricultural water scarcity, food insecurity and drought on environmental migration trends in Somalia. We fill reporting gaps arising from limited humanitarian access and data collection, documenting departure location and reasons underlying individual decisions to move from over 40,000 cases. We find that, between 2015 and 2021, 76–91% of environmental migrants departed from statistically significant multivariate hot spots of drought, food insecurity and agricultural water scarcity, highlighting the urgent need for integrated strategies that address water availability for food security and proactive interventions and policies in areas most susceptible to compounded hydroclimatic variability impacts. Environmental migration drivers in Somalia are spatially analysed, demonstrating that multivariate hydroclimatic events impacting agricultural production lead to the migration or displacement of the impacted residents to avoid food insecurity.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"7 1","pages":"100-111"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146057185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01292-y
The absence of yield ceilings due to plant genetics and climatic factors indicates that agronomic management drives the wheat yield plateau. To break the plateau, profitable management of agronomic and soil factors, particularly diseases and soil conservation through less-intensive crop rotations, will be required.
{"title":"High-yielding wheat in northwest Europe constrained by agronomic management","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01292-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01292-y","url":null,"abstract":"The absence of yield ceilings due to plant genetics and climatic factors indicates that agronomic management drives the wheat yield plateau. To break the plateau, profitable management of agronomic and soil factors, particularly diseases and soil conservation through less-intensive crop rotations, will be required.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"7 1","pages":"15-16"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146021315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-20DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01284-y
Charlotte Plinke, Michael Sureth, Matthias Kalkuhl
Food consumption generates substantial environmental externalities that remain insufficiently addressed by public policies. Here we explore the global environmental footprints induced by food consumption in the European Union (EU27) based on a multi-regional input–output model, and assess the potential of tax policies for mitigation. Using household expenditure data, we estimate country-specific demand systems for food products and link these to the footprints for the policy analysis. We find that removing current VAT reductions on meat products has the potential to decrease food consumption-related greenhouse-gas emissions, water consumption, land use, biodiversity loss, and the nitrogen and phosphorus footprints of EU27 household food consumption by 3.5%–5.7%. A greenhouse-gas emission price of ~€52 per tCO2e on all food products leads to equivalent emission reductions with higher associated environmental co-benefits. The mean net welfare costs of the two policies amount to €12–26 per year per household. The environmental impacts of food consumption in the European Union are global. This study estimates the environmental footprints of EU27 household food consumption, simulating the mitigation potential of tax policies and assessing consumption-related welfare costs.
{"title":"Environmental impacts from European food consumption can be reduced with carbon pricing or a value-added tax reform","authors":"Charlotte Plinke, Michael Sureth, Matthias Kalkuhl","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01284-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01284-y","url":null,"abstract":"Food consumption generates substantial environmental externalities that remain insufficiently addressed by public policies. Here we explore the global environmental footprints induced by food consumption in the European Union (EU27) based on a multi-regional input–output model, and assess the potential of tax policies for mitigation. Using household expenditure data, we estimate country-specific demand systems for food products and link these to the footprints for the policy analysis. We find that removing current VAT reductions on meat products has the potential to decrease food consumption-related greenhouse-gas emissions, water consumption, land use, biodiversity loss, and the nitrogen and phosphorus footprints of EU27 household food consumption by 3.5%–5.7%. A greenhouse-gas emission price of ~€52 per tCO2e on all food products leads to equivalent emission reductions with higher associated environmental co-benefits. The mean net welfare costs of the two policies amount to €12–26 per year per household. The environmental impacts of food consumption in the European Union are global. This study estimates the environmental footprints of EU27 household food consumption, simulating the mitigation potential of tax policies and assessing consumption-related welfare costs.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"7 1","pages":"74-87"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-025-01284-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146005318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-20DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01282-0
Andrew N. Reynolds, John Cummings, Gerald Tannock, Jim Mann
Despite strong evidence of dietary fibre’s health benefits and its role in reducing chronic disease risk, it is not considered to be an essential nutrient. Recognizing its essentiality and confirming reference values is a critical step to drive clinical and public health recommendations, policies and interventions.
{"title":"Dietary fibre as an essential nutrient","authors":"Andrew N. Reynolds, John Cummings, Gerald Tannock, Jim Mann","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01282-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01282-0","url":null,"abstract":"Despite strong evidence of dietary fibre’s health benefits and its role in reducing chronic disease risk, it is not considered to be an essential nutrient. Recognizing its essentiality and confirming reference values is a critical step to drive clinical and public health recommendations, policies and interventions.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"7 1","pages":"4-5"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146005144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-20DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01286-w
João Vasco Silva, Bert Rijk, Herman N. C. Berghuijs, Allard J. W. de Wit, Pytrik Reidsma, Martin K. van Ittersum
Northwest Europe experienced considerable increases in wheat yield until the mid-1990s, but progress has remained stagnant since then. Estimating the relative contributions of improved genetics, historical climate change and agronomic management to this yield plateau is required to understand the feasibility of yield increases in the future. Analysis of high-quality experimental data revealed yield gains due to improved genetics of 74–84 kg ha−1 yr−1 during the period 1994–2016. Thus far, yield gains due to historical climate change of 26–60 kg ha−1 yr−1 were estimated over the same period using a well-validated crop model across regions, soil types and cultivars. Given the absence of genetic and climatic yield ceilings, we conclude that agronomic management is responsible for the wheat yield plateau in northwest Europe, contributing to unrealized potential yield gains of 67–114 kg ha−1 yr−1. Breaking the yield plateau will require due attention to agronomic constraints at the farm level and continued monitoring of genetic gains and climate change impacts on wheat yields. Wheat yields in northwest Europe have plateaued since the mid-1990s. This study finds that no ceiling in genetic yield potential has been reached and that climatic conditions have not constrained wheat yields across high-yielding environments in the region thus far; suboptimal agronomic management is responsible for unrealized wheat yield progress of 67–114 kg ha−1 yr−1 during the period 1994–2016.
{"title":"Agronomic management drives the wheat yield plateau in high-yielding environments of northwest Europe","authors":"João Vasco Silva, Bert Rijk, Herman N. C. Berghuijs, Allard J. W. de Wit, Pytrik Reidsma, Martin K. van Ittersum","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01286-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01286-w","url":null,"abstract":"Northwest Europe experienced considerable increases in wheat yield until the mid-1990s, but progress has remained stagnant since then. Estimating the relative contributions of improved genetics, historical climate change and agronomic management to this yield plateau is required to understand the feasibility of yield increases in the future. Analysis of high-quality experimental data revealed yield gains due to improved genetics of 74–84 kg ha−1 yr−1 during the period 1994–2016. Thus far, yield gains due to historical climate change of 26–60 kg ha−1 yr−1 were estimated over the same period using a well-validated crop model across regions, soil types and cultivars. Given the absence of genetic and climatic yield ceilings, we conclude that agronomic management is responsible for the wheat yield plateau in northwest Europe, contributing to unrealized potential yield gains of 67–114 kg ha−1 yr−1. Breaking the yield plateau will require due attention to agronomic constraints at the farm level and continued monitoring of genetic gains and climate change impacts on wheat yields. Wheat yields in northwest Europe have plateaued since the mid-1990s. This study finds that no ceiling in genetic yield potential has been reached and that climatic conditions have not constrained wheat yields across high-yielding environments in the region thus far; suboptimal agronomic management is responsible for unrealized wheat yield progress of 67–114 kg ha−1 yr−1 during the period 1994–2016.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"7 1","pages":"45-54"},"PeriodicalIF":21.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-025-01286-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146005142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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