Pub Date : 2025-01-28DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01119-w
The journal’s anniversary is an opportunity to reflect on food systems research and to celebrate our contribution to it.
{"title":"Five years of Nature Food","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01119-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01119-w","url":null,"abstract":"The journal’s anniversary is an opportunity to reflect on food systems research and to celebrate our contribution to it.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 1","pages":"1-1"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-025-01119-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143049655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-21DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01115-0
Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, this study finds that under current trends, most social and environmental targets related to the Chinese food system are not aligned with the UN 2030 Agenda. Bundling policies addressing public health, environmental sustainability and livelihood improvement can minimize trade-offs, revealing the importance of coordinated strategies for achieving a sustainable food system.
{"title":"China’s sustainable food system requires concerted efforts","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s43016-025-01115-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-025-01115-0","url":null,"abstract":"Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, this study finds that under current trends, most social and environmental targets related to the Chinese food system are not aligned with the UN 2030 Agenda. Bundling policies addressing public health, environmental sustainability and livelihood improvement can minimize trade-offs, revealing the importance of coordinated strategies for achieving a sustainable food system.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 1","pages":"17-18"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142992400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-21DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01100-z
Xiaoxi Wang, Hao Cai, Jiaqi Xuan, Ruiying Du, Bin Lin, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Miodrag Stevanović, Quitterie Collignon, Changzheng Yuan, Lu Yu, Michael Crawford, Felicitas Beier, Meng Xu, Hui Chen, Marco Springmann, Debbora Leip, David Meng-Chuen Chen, Florian Humpenöder, Patrick von Jeetze, Shenggen Fan, Bjoern Soergel, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Christoph Müller, Alexander Popp, Hermann Lotze-Campen
Food systems are essential for the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals in China. Here, using an integrated assessment modelling framework that considers country-specific pathways and covers 18 indicators, we find that most social and environmental targets for the Chinese food system under current trends are not aligned with the United Nations Agenda 2030. We further quantify the impacts of multiple measures, revealing potential trade-offs in pursuing strategies aimed at public health, environmental sustainability and livelihood improvement in isolation. Among the individual packages of measures, a shift towards healthy diets exhibits the lowest level of trade-offs, leading to improvements in nutrition, health, environment and livelihoods. In contrast, focusing efforts on climate change mitigation and ecological conservation, or promoting faster socioeconomic development alone, have trade-offs between social and environmental outcomes. These trade-offs could be minimized by bundling all three aspects of measures. The effectiveness of the different policies and policy bundles for food systems transformation to achieve SDGs in China vary widely. Using an integrated modelling framework covering 18 indicators, this study compares the trade-offs and outcomes of efforts focused on dietary transitions, climate change mitigation and ecological conservation, and faster socioeconomic development, ultimately revealing that dietary shifts offer the most benefits.
{"title":"Bundled measures for China’s food system transformation reveal social and environmental co-benefits","authors":"Xiaoxi Wang, Hao Cai, Jiaqi Xuan, Ruiying Du, Bin Lin, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Miodrag Stevanović, Quitterie Collignon, Changzheng Yuan, Lu Yu, Michael Crawford, Felicitas Beier, Meng Xu, Hui Chen, Marco Springmann, Debbora Leip, David Meng-Chuen Chen, Florian Humpenöder, Patrick von Jeetze, Shenggen Fan, Bjoern Soergel, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Christoph Müller, Alexander Popp, Hermann Lotze-Campen","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01100-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01100-z","url":null,"abstract":"Food systems are essential for the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals in China. Here, using an integrated assessment modelling framework that considers country-specific pathways and covers 18 indicators, we find that most social and environmental targets for the Chinese food system under current trends are not aligned with the United Nations Agenda 2030. We further quantify the impacts of multiple measures, revealing potential trade-offs in pursuing strategies aimed at public health, environmental sustainability and livelihood improvement in isolation. Among the individual packages of measures, a shift towards healthy diets exhibits the lowest level of trade-offs, leading to improvements in nutrition, health, environment and livelihoods. In contrast, focusing efforts on climate change mitigation and ecological conservation, or promoting faster socioeconomic development alone, have trade-offs between social and environmental outcomes. These trade-offs could be minimized by bundling all three aspects of measures. The effectiveness of the different policies and policy bundles for food systems transformation to achieve SDGs in China vary widely. Using an integrated modelling framework covering 18 indicators, this study compares the trade-offs and outcomes of efforts focused on dietary transitions, climate change mitigation and ecological conservation, and faster socioeconomic development, ultimately revealing that dietary shifts offer the most benefits.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 1","pages":"72-84"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142991090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-14DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01109-4
Kate R. Schneider, Roseline Remans, Tesfaye Hailu Bekele, Destan Aytekin, Piero Conforti, Shouro Dasgupta, Fabrice DeClerck, Deviana Dewi, Carola Fabi, Jessica A. Gephart, Yuta J. Masuda, Rebecca McLaren, Michaela Saisana, Nancy Aburto, Ramya Ambikapathi, Mariana Arellano Rodriguez, Simon Barquera, Jane Battersby, Ty Beal, Christophe Béné, Carlo Cafiero, Christine Campeau, Patrick Caron, Andrea Cattaneo, Jeroen Candel, Namukolo Covic, Inmaculada del Pino Alvarez, Ana Paula Dominguez Barreto, Ismahane Elouafi, Tyler J. Frazier, Alexander Fremier, Pat Foley, Christopher D. Golden, Carlos Gonzalez Fischer, Alejandro Guarin, Sheryl Hendriks, Anna Herforth, Maddalena Honorati, Jikun Huang, Yonas Getaneh, Gina Kennedy, Amos Laar, Rattan Lal, Preetmoninder Lidder, Getachew Legese Feye, Brent Loken, Hazel Malapit, Quinn Marshall, Kalkidan A. Mulatu, Ana Munguia, Stella Nordhagen, Danielle Resnick, Diana Suhardiman, U. Rashid Sumaila, Bangyao Sun, Belay Terefe Mengesha, Maximo Torero Cullen, Francesco N. Tubiello, Corné van Dooren, Isabel Valero Morales, Jose-Luis Vivero-Pol, Patrick Webb, Keith Wiebe, Lawrence Haddad, Mario Herrero, Jose Rosero Moncayo, Jessica Fanzo
Due to complex interactions, changes in any one area of food systems are likely to impact—and possibly depend on—changes in other areas. Here we present the first annual monitoring update of the indicator framework proposed by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, with new qualitative analysis elucidating interactions across indicators. Since 2000, we find that 20 of 42 indicators with time series have been trending in a desirable direction, indicating modest positive change. Qualitative expert elicitation assessed governance and resilience indicators to be most connected to other indicators across themes, highlighting entry points for action—particularly governance action. Literature review and country case studies add context to the assessed interactions across diets, environment, livelihoods, governance and resilience indicators, helping different actors understand and navigate food systems towards desirable change. This study presents the first annual update of the indicator framework developed by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, published in Nature Food in 2023. Almost half of all indicators show some desirable trends. Governance and resilience indicators were revealed as the most connected across themes, constituting entry points for transformative change.
{"title":"Governance and resilience as entry points for transforming food systems in the countdown to 2030","authors":"Kate R. Schneider, Roseline Remans, Tesfaye Hailu Bekele, Destan Aytekin, Piero Conforti, Shouro Dasgupta, Fabrice DeClerck, Deviana Dewi, Carola Fabi, Jessica A. Gephart, Yuta J. Masuda, Rebecca McLaren, Michaela Saisana, Nancy Aburto, Ramya Ambikapathi, Mariana Arellano Rodriguez, Simon Barquera, Jane Battersby, Ty Beal, Christophe Béné, Carlo Cafiero, Christine Campeau, Patrick Caron, Andrea Cattaneo, Jeroen Candel, Namukolo Covic, Inmaculada del Pino Alvarez, Ana Paula Dominguez Barreto, Ismahane Elouafi, Tyler J. Frazier, Alexander Fremier, Pat Foley, Christopher D. Golden, Carlos Gonzalez Fischer, Alejandro Guarin, Sheryl Hendriks, Anna Herforth, Maddalena Honorati, Jikun Huang, Yonas Getaneh, Gina Kennedy, Amos Laar, Rattan Lal, Preetmoninder Lidder, Getachew Legese Feye, Brent Loken, Hazel Malapit, Quinn Marshall, Kalkidan A. Mulatu, Ana Munguia, Stella Nordhagen, Danielle Resnick, Diana Suhardiman, U. Rashid Sumaila, Bangyao Sun, Belay Terefe Mengesha, Maximo Torero Cullen, Francesco N. Tubiello, Corné van Dooren, Isabel Valero Morales, Jose-Luis Vivero-Pol, Patrick Webb, Keith Wiebe, Lawrence Haddad, Mario Herrero, Jose Rosero Moncayo, Jessica Fanzo","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01109-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01109-4","url":null,"abstract":"Due to complex interactions, changes in any one area of food systems are likely to impact—and possibly depend on—changes in other areas. Here we present the first annual monitoring update of the indicator framework proposed by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, with new qualitative analysis elucidating interactions across indicators. Since 2000, we find that 20 of 42 indicators with time series have been trending in a desirable direction, indicating modest positive change. Qualitative expert elicitation assessed governance and resilience indicators to be most connected to other indicators across themes, highlighting entry points for action—particularly governance action. Literature review and country case studies add context to the assessed interactions across diets, environment, livelihoods, governance and resilience indicators, helping different actors understand and navigate food systems towards desirable change. This study presents the first annual update of the indicator framework developed by the Food Systems Countdown Initiative, published in Nature Food in 2023. Almost half of all indicators show some desirable trends. Governance and resilience indicators were revealed as the most connected across themes, constituting entry points for transformative change.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 1","pages":"105-116"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-01109-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142974595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-13DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01090-y
R. James Stubbs, Mark Hopkins
Misreporting of dietary intake under free-living conditions in nutritional epidemiological studies can’t be easily captured. A predictive equation for total daily energy expenditure derived from the largest doubly labelled water dataset to date can help improve evaluation of the accuracy of self-reported dietary intake.
{"title":"Predictive equation helps estimate misreporting of energy intakes in dietary surveys","authors":"R. James Stubbs, Mark Hopkins","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01090-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01090-y","url":null,"abstract":"Misreporting of dietary intake under free-living conditions in nutritional epidemiological studies can’t be easily captured. A predictive equation for total daily energy expenditure derived from the largest doubly labelled water dataset to date can help improve evaluation of the accuracy of self-reported dietary intake.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 1","pages":"8-9"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142968284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-13DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01089-5
Rania Bajunaid, Chaoqun Niu, Catherine Hambly, Zongfang Liu, Yosuke Yamada, Heliodoro Aleman-Mateo, Liam J. Anderson, Lenore Arab, Issad Baddou, Linda Bandini, Kweku Bedu-Addo, Ellen E. Blaak, Carlijn V. C. Bouten, Soren Brage, Maciej S. Buchowski, Nancy F. Butte, Stefan G. J. A. Camps, Regina Casper, Graeme L. Close, Jamie A. Cooper, Richard Cooper, Sai Krupa Das, Peter S. W. Davies, Prasangi Dabare, Lara R. Dugas, Simon Eaton, Ulf Ekelund, Sonja Entringer, Terrence Forrester, Barry W. Fudge, Melanie Gillingham, Annelies H. Goris, Michael Gurven, Asmaa El Hamdouchi, Hinke H. Haisma, Daniel Hoffman, Marije B. Hoos, Sumei Hu, Noorjehan Joonas, Annemiek M. Joosen, Peter Katzmarzyk, Misaka Kimura, William E. Kraus, Wantanee Kriengsinyos, Rebecca Kuriyan, Robert F. Kushner, Estelle V. Lambert, Pulani Lanerolle, Christel L. Larsson, William R. Leonard, Nader Lessan, Marie Löf, Corby K. Martin, Eric Matsiko, Anine C. Medin, James C. Morehen, James P. Morton, Aviva Must, Marian L. Neuhouser, Theresa A. Nicklas, Christine D. Nyström, Robert M. Ojiambo, Kirsi H. Pietiläinen, Yannis P. Pitsiladis, Jacob Plange-Rhule, Guy Plasqui, Ross L. Prentice, Susan B. Racette, David A. Raichlen, Eric Ravussin, Leanne M. Redman, John J. Reilly, Rebecca Reynolds, Susan B. Roberts, Dulani Samaranayakem, Luis B. Sardinha, Analiza M. Silva, Anders M. Sjödin, Marina Stamatiou, Eric Stice, Samuel S. Urlacher, Ludo M. Van Etten, Edgar G. A. H. van Mil, George Wilson, Jack A. Yanovski, Tsukasa Yoshida, Xueying Zhang, Alexia J. Murphy-Alford, Srishti Sinha, Cornelia U. Loechl, Amy H. Luke, Herman Pontzer, Jennifer Rood, Hiroyuki Sagayama, Dale A. Schoeller, Klaas R. Westerterp, William W. Wong, John R. Speakman
Nutritional epidemiology aims to link dietary exposures to chronic disease, but the instruments for evaluating dietary intake are inaccurate. One way to identify unreliable data and the sources of errors is to compare estimated intakes with the total energy expenditure (TEE). In this study, we used the International Atomic Energy Agency Doubly Labeled Water Database to derive a predictive equation for TEE using 6,497 measures of TEE in individuals aged 4 to 96 years. The resultant regression equation predicts expected TEE from easily acquired variables, such as body weight, age and sex, with 95% predictive limits that can be used to screen for misreporting by participants in dietary studies. We applied the equation to two large datasets (National Diet and Nutrition Survey and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) and found that the level of misreporting was >50%. The macronutrient composition from dietary reports in these studies was systematically biased as the level of misreporting increased, leading to potentially spurious associations between diet components and body mass index. This study presents a predictive equation for total energy expenditure derived from doubly labelled water measurements. Applying this equation to two large datasets (the National Diet and Nutrition Survey and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) shows that the misreporting of total energy intake is greater than 50%, with important implications for macronutrient availability.
{"title":"Predictive equation derived from 6,497 doubly labelled water measurements enables the detection of erroneous self-reported energy intake","authors":"Rania Bajunaid, Chaoqun Niu, Catherine Hambly, Zongfang Liu, Yosuke Yamada, Heliodoro Aleman-Mateo, Liam J. Anderson, Lenore Arab, Issad Baddou, Linda Bandini, Kweku Bedu-Addo, Ellen E. Blaak, Carlijn V. C. Bouten, Soren Brage, Maciej S. Buchowski, Nancy F. Butte, Stefan G. J. A. Camps, Regina Casper, Graeme L. Close, Jamie A. Cooper, Richard Cooper, Sai Krupa Das, Peter S. W. Davies, Prasangi Dabare, Lara R. Dugas, Simon Eaton, Ulf Ekelund, Sonja Entringer, Terrence Forrester, Barry W. Fudge, Melanie Gillingham, Annelies H. Goris, Michael Gurven, Asmaa El Hamdouchi, Hinke H. Haisma, Daniel Hoffman, Marije B. Hoos, Sumei Hu, Noorjehan Joonas, Annemiek M. Joosen, Peter Katzmarzyk, Misaka Kimura, William E. Kraus, Wantanee Kriengsinyos, Rebecca Kuriyan, Robert F. Kushner, Estelle V. Lambert, Pulani Lanerolle, Christel L. Larsson, William R. Leonard, Nader Lessan, Marie Löf, Corby K. Martin, Eric Matsiko, Anine C. Medin, James C. Morehen, James P. Morton, Aviva Must, Marian L. Neuhouser, Theresa A. Nicklas, Christine D. Nyström, Robert M. Ojiambo, Kirsi H. Pietiläinen, Yannis P. Pitsiladis, Jacob Plange-Rhule, Guy Plasqui, Ross L. Prentice, Susan B. Racette, David A. Raichlen, Eric Ravussin, Leanne M. Redman, John J. Reilly, Rebecca Reynolds, Susan B. Roberts, Dulani Samaranayakem, Luis B. Sardinha, Analiza M. Silva, Anders M. Sjödin, Marina Stamatiou, Eric Stice, Samuel S. Urlacher, Ludo M. Van Etten, Edgar G. A. H. van Mil, George Wilson, Jack A. Yanovski, Tsukasa Yoshida, Xueying Zhang, Alexia J. Murphy-Alford, Srishti Sinha, Cornelia U. Loechl, Amy H. Luke, Herman Pontzer, Jennifer Rood, Hiroyuki Sagayama, Dale A. Schoeller, Klaas R. Westerterp, William W. Wong, John R. Speakman","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01089-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01089-5","url":null,"abstract":"Nutritional epidemiology aims to link dietary exposures to chronic disease, but the instruments for evaluating dietary intake are inaccurate. One way to identify unreliable data and the sources of errors is to compare estimated intakes with the total energy expenditure (TEE). In this study, we used the International Atomic Energy Agency Doubly Labeled Water Database to derive a predictive equation for TEE using 6,497 measures of TEE in individuals aged 4 to 96 years. The resultant regression equation predicts expected TEE from easily acquired variables, such as body weight, age and sex, with 95% predictive limits that can be used to screen for misreporting by participants in dietary studies. We applied the equation to two large datasets (National Diet and Nutrition Survey and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) and found that the level of misreporting was >50%. The macronutrient composition from dietary reports in these studies was systematically biased as the level of misreporting increased, leading to potentially spurious associations between diet components and body mass index. This study presents a predictive equation for total energy expenditure derived from doubly labelled water measurements. Applying this equation to two large datasets (the National Diet and Nutrition Survey and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) shows that the misreporting of total energy intake is greater than 50%, with important implications for macronutrient availability.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 1","pages":"58-71"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-01089-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142968288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-06DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01087-7
Jasper Verschuur, Yiorgos Vittis, Michael Obersteiner, Jim W. Hall
Despite the growing accessibility of international grain and oilseed markets, high production costs and trade frictions are still prevalent, contributing to regional heterogeneities in the landed cost of grain imports. Here we quantify the landed cost for six grain commodities across 3,500 administrative regions, capturing regional cost differences to produce grain and transport it across international borders. We find large heterogeneities in the costs of imported grain, which are highest in Oceania, Central America and landlocked Africa. While some regions have uniform landed costs across sourcing locations, others face cost variations across trading partners, showing large inequalities in access. We find that most regions could benefit from a targeted approach to reduce landed cost while others benefit from a mixed strategies approach. Our results highlight that spatial information on production, trade and transport is essential to inform policies aiming to build an efficient and resilient global agricultural commodity trade system. The cost of transporting agricultural products from the field to consumers across borders, also known as the landed cost, is highly influenced by trade frictions and regional cost differences. This study estimates this cost—including production, transport and trade components—for six grain commodities across 3,500 administrative regions, revealing large inequalities in access.
{"title":"Heterogeneities in landed costs of traded grains and oilseeds contribute to unequal access to food","authors":"Jasper Verschuur, Yiorgos Vittis, Michael Obersteiner, Jim W. Hall","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01087-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01087-7","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the growing accessibility of international grain and oilseed markets, high production costs and trade frictions are still prevalent, contributing to regional heterogeneities in the landed cost of grain imports. Here we quantify the landed cost for six grain commodities across 3,500 administrative regions, capturing regional cost differences to produce grain and transport it across international borders. We find large heterogeneities in the costs of imported grain, which are highest in Oceania, Central America and landlocked Africa. While some regions have uniform landed costs across sourcing locations, others face cost variations across trading partners, showing large inequalities in access. We find that most regions could benefit from a targeted approach to reduce landed cost while others benefit from a mixed strategies approach. Our results highlight that spatial information on production, trade and transport is essential to inform policies aiming to build an efficient and resilient global agricultural commodity trade system. The cost of transporting agricultural products from the field to consumers across borders, also known as the landed cost, is highly influenced by trade frictions and regional cost differences. This study estimates this cost—including production, transport and trade components—for six grain commodities across 3,500 administrative regions, revealing large inequalities in access.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 1","pages":"36-46"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-01087-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142929606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-06DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01103-w
Anne Charlotte Bunge, Rachel Mazac, Michael Clark, Line Gordon
Despite increasing interest in cellular agriculture, coffee, cocoa and palm oil produced using these techniques have received limited scientific attention. Emerging alternatives could mitigate negative environmental and socio-economic impacts associated with these crops and meet growing demand despite declining production, but it is important to ensure that they do not reinforce inequities.
{"title":"Emerging alternatives to coffee, cocoa and palm oil deserve a spot on the research agenda","authors":"Anne Charlotte Bunge, Rachel Mazac, Michael Clark, Line Gordon","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01103-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01103-w","url":null,"abstract":"Despite increasing interest in cellular agriculture, coffee, cocoa and palm oil produced using these techniques have received limited scientific attention. Emerging alternatives could mitigate negative environmental and socio-economic impacts associated with these crops and meet growing demand despite declining production, but it is important to ensure that they do not reinforce inequities.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 1","pages":"2-5"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142929605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-06DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01091-x
Global access to international food markets is still unequal and driven by trade and non-trade frictions. A new global cost analysis of the trade of grains highlights the importance of different cost components and their implications for exposure to price shocks and suggests strategies to improve market access.
{"title":"Factors that drive unequal access to international grain markets","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01091-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01091-x","url":null,"abstract":"Global access to international food markets is still unequal and driven by trade and non-trade frictions. A new global cost analysis of the trade of grains highlights the importance of different cost components and their implications for exposure to price shocks and suggests strategies to improve market access.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 1","pages":"15-16"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142929604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-03DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01099-3
David Meng-Chuen Chen, Benjamin Bodirsky, Xiaoxi Wang, Jiaqi Xuan, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alexander Popp, Hermann Lotze-Campen
Agricultural production costs represent less than half of total food prices for higher-income countries and will likely further decrease globally. Added-value components such as transport, processing, marketing and catering show increasing importance in food value chains, especially as countries undergo a nutrition transition towards more complex and industrial food systems. Here, using a combined statistical and process-based modelling framework, we derive and project the value-added component of food prices for 136 countries and 11 different food groups, for food-at-home and food-away-from-home. We identify the declining but differentiated producer share in consumer food prices across food products, and provide scenarios of future consumer prices under a business-as-usual as well as climate mitigation scenarios. Food price increases from policies targeting agricultural producers, such as greenhouse gas taxes, are not as stark when transmitted to consumers owing to higher value added in higher-income countries, while a pronounced effect remains in lower-income countries, even in coming decades. The future of food prices is uncertain yet key for food security and climate mitigation policies. This study estimates future food prices for 136 countries and 11 distinct food groups, showing that future food prices will become less sensitive to agricultural market dynamics and land-based mitigation policies, given the global transition towards more complex and industrial food systems.
{"title":"Future food prices will become less sensitive to agricultural market prices and mitigation costs","authors":"David Meng-Chuen Chen, Benjamin Bodirsky, Xiaoxi Wang, Jiaqi Xuan, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alexander Popp, Hermann Lotze-Campen","doi":"10.1038/s43016-024-01099-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43016-024-01099-3","url":null,"abstract":"Agricultural production costs represent less than half of total food prices for higher-income countries and will likely further decrease globally. Added-value components such as transport, processing, marketing and catering show increasing importance in food value chains, especially as countries undergo a nutrition transition towards more complex and industrial food systems. Here, using a combined statistical and process-based modelling framework, we derive and project the value-added component of food prices for 136 countries and 11 different food groups, for food-at-home and food-away-from-home. We identify the declining but differentiated producer share in consumer food prices across food products, and provide scenarios of future consumer prices under a business-as-usual as well as climate mitigation scenarios. Food price increases from policies targeting agricultural producers, such as greenhouse gas taxes, are not as stark when transmitted to consumers owing to higher value added in higher-income countries, while a pronounced effect remains in lower-income countries, even in coming decades. The future of food prices is uncertain yet key for food security and climate mitigation policies. This study estimates future food prices for 136 countries and 11 distinct food groups, showing that future food prices will become less sensitive to agricultural market dynamics and land-based mitigation policies, given the global transition towards more complex and industrial food systems.","PeriodicalId":94151,"journal":{"name":"Nature food","volume":"6 1","pages":"85-96"},"PeriodicalIF":23.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-01099-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142916841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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