Modelling techniques in cholera epidemiology: A systematic and critical review

Abstract

Diverse modelling techniques in cholera epidemiology have been developed and used to (1) study its transmission dynamics, (2) predict and manage cholera outbreaks, and (3) assess the impact of various control and mitigation measures. In this study, we carry out a critical and systematic review of various approaches used for modelling the dynamics of cholera. Also, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each modelling approach. A systematic search of articles was conducted in Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, and Taylor & Francis. Eligible studies were those concerned with the dynamics of cholera excluding studies focused on models for cholera transmission in animals, socio-economic factors, and genetic & molecular related studies. A total of 476 peer-reviewed articles met the inclusion criteria, with about 40% (32%) of the studies carried out in Asia (Africa). About 52%, 21%, and 9%, of the studies, were based on compartmental (e.g., SIRB), statistical (time series and regression), and spatial (spatiotemporal clustering) models, respectively, while the rest of the analysed studies used other modelling approaches such as network, machine learning and artificial intelligence, Bayesian, and agent-based approaches. Cholera modelling studies that incorporate vector/housefly transmission of the pathogen are scarce and a small portion of researchers (3.99%) considers the estimation of key epidemiological parameters. Vaccination only platform was utilized as a control measure in more than half (58%) of the studies. Research productivity in cholera epidemiological modelling studies have increased in recent years, but authors used diverse range of models. Future models should consider incorporating vector/housefly transmission of the pathogen and on the estimation of key epidemiological parameters for the transmission of cholera dynamics.