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A mathematical perspective on hypothesis-driven model construction: A case study in pea 假设驱动模型构建的数学视角:以Pea为例。
IF 1.8 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2026.109635
Brodie A.J. Lawson , Elizabeth A. Dun , Christine A. Beveridge , Nicole Z. Fortuna , Kevin Burrage
Mechanistic models in systems biology enable biophysically-backed testing of hypothesised mechanisms. However, determination of their parameter values is highly challenging, and the data available for calibration is frequently qualitative in nature. Acknowledging this, many approaches abandon mechanistic description, avoiding parameterisation and simulating biological network behaviours in a qualitative fashion. Appealing are the methods that capture some of the best of both types of approach, maintaining a qualitative perspective while using mechanistic models that naturally generalise to quantitative data and carry biochemical implications. Here, using a pea branching network model as an exemplar, we demonstrate the conversion of biological hypotheses into simplified, parameter-free mathematical models, elucidating the biophysical assumptions implicitly made by this approach and analysing the exemplar model’s behaviour. Using likelihood-free Bayesian calibration, we compare the parameter-free model to the set of plausible calibrations of its parameterised analog, hence demonstrating that almost all of the qualitative conclusions given data — including both suitability of a hypothesised network structure, and sensitivity analysis — are obtained by the parameter-free paradigm. Altogether, our findings highlight the usefulness of parameter-free treatments of quantitative models, and also deepen understanding of branching network function across mutant and grafted plants.
系统生物学中的机制模型使生物物理学支持的假设机制的测试成为可能。然而,确定它们的参数值是极具挑战性的,可用于校准的数据往往是定性的。认识到这一点,许多方法放弃了机械描述,避免了参数化,并以定性的方式模拟生物网络行为。吸引人的是,这些方法抓住了这两种方法的一些优点,在使用自然概括定量数据并具有生化含义的机制模型的同时,保持了定性视角。在这里,我们以豌豆分支网络模型为例,演示了将生物学假设转换为简化的无参数数学模型,阐明了这种方法隐含的生物物理假设,并分析了范例模型的行为。使用无似然贝叶斯校准,我们将无参数模型与其参数化模拟的合理校准集进行比较,从而证明几乎所有给定数据的定性结论-包括假设网络结构的适用性和敏感性分析-都是通过无参数范式获得的。总之,我们的研究结果强调了定量模型无参数处理的有效性,也加深了对突变体和嫁接植物分支网络功能的理解。
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引用次数: 0
A partition method for bounding continuous-time Markov chain models of general reaction network 一般反应网络连续时间马尔可夫链边界模型的一种划分方法。
IF 1.8 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2026.109639
Guillaume Ballif , Laurent Pfeiffer , Jakob Ruess
In this work, we present a general method to establish properties of multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains representing stochastic reaction networks. This method consists of grouping states together (via a partition of the state space), then constructing two one-dimensional birth and death processes that lower and upper bound the initial process under simple assumptions on the infinitesimal generators of the processes. The construction of these bounding processes is based on coupling arguments and transport theory. The bounding processes are easy to analyse analytically and numerically and allow us to derive properties on the initial continuous-time Markov chain. We focus on two important properties: the behavior of the process at infinity through the existence of a stationary distribution and the error in truncating the state space to numerically solve the master equation describing the time evolution of the probability distribution of the process. We derive explicit formulas for constructing the optimal bounding processes for a given partition, making the method easy to use in practice. We finally discuss the importance of the choice of the partition to obtain relevant results and illustrate the method on two examples of chemical reaction networks.
本文给出了一种建立多维连续马尔可夫链性质的一般方法。该方法将状态分组(通过状态空间的划分),然后在过程的无穷小生成器的简单假设下构造两个一维生与死过程,它们是初始过程的下界和上界。这些边界过程的构造基于耦合参数和输运理论。边界过程易于解析和数值分析,并允许我们推导初始连续时间马尔可夫链的性质。我们关注两个重要的性质:通过平稳分布的存在,过程在无穷远处的行为和截断状态空间以数值解描述过程概率分布的时间演化的主方程的误差。我们导出了构造给定分区的最优边界过程的显式公式,使该方法易于在实践中使用。最后讨论了分区选择对得到相关结果的重要性,并以两个化学反应网络实例说明了该方法。
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引用次数: 0
Traveling wave formation enables strain coexistence in a spatial model of bacterial cross-feeding 行波形成使菌株共存在细菌交叉喂养的空间模型。
IF 1.8 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2026.109647
Parsa Pakzad, Donald DeAngelis
Cross-feeding is a form of metabolic cooperation in microbial populations where one species or strain produces a byproduct that serves as a nutrient for another. This interaction can promote division of labor, resource efficiency, and species coexistence. The extent to which spatial heterogeneity and metabolite diffusion shape cross-feeding interactions is not yet well resolved. In this study, we examine the spatial dynamics of cross-feeding between two bacterial strains using a two-dimensional chemostat lattice model. Both strains are capable of growing on glucose and acetate, but differ in resource preference. One, which we term glucose specialist, primarily consumes glucose, while the other, which we term acetate specialist, primarily consumes acetate. Moreover, elevated acetate amount inhibits the growth of both strains. Metabolite dynamics are governed by reaction-diffusion equations, and bacterial motility is implemented through partially random local dispersal rules.
Our simulations reveal that the emergence of traveling waves plays a critical role in enabling long-term coexistence of the two strains. Specifically, clusters of glucose specialists self-organize into wave-like structures that propagate toward regions of elevated acetate amount. These traveling waves suppress inhibitory acetate level ahead of the front, creating favorable conditions in their wake for the acetate specialists to grow. The resulting spatiotemporal patterns—characterized by merging wave fronts and sequential colonization—allow both strains to persist over the long term, despite competitive and inhibitory interactions. Mathematical analysis is used to support and interpret the simulation results. These findings demonstrate how spatial self-organization and reaction-diffusion dynamics can mediate coexistence in microbial cross-feeding systems, offering new insights into the ecological and evolutionary stability of microbial communities.
交叉喂养是微生物种群中代谢合作的一种形式,其中一个物种或菌株产生的副产品为另一个物种或菌株提供营养。这种相互作用可以促进劳动分工、资源效率和物种共存。空间异质性和代谢物扩散在多大程度上影响交叉取食相互作用尚未得到很好的解决。在这项研究中,我们研究了两种细菌菌株之间交叉取食的空间动力学使用二维趋化晶格模型。这两种菌株都能在葡萄糖和醋酸盐上生长,但在资源偏好上有所不同。一种,我们称之为葡萄糖专科,主要消耗葡萄糖,而另一种,我们称之为醋酸专科,主要消耗醋酸。此外,醋酸盐的增加抑制了这两种菌株的生长。代谢物动力学是由反应扩散方程控制的,细菌的运动是通过部分随机的局部扩散规则实现的。我们的模拟表明,行波的出现在两种菌株的长期共存中起着关键作用。具体地说,葡萄糖专家团自我组织成波状结构,向醋酸盐含量升高的区域传播。这些行波抑制了前面的抑制醋酸水平,在它们的尾迹中为醋酸专家的生长创造了有利条件。由此产生的时空模式-以合并波阵和顺序定殖为特征-允许两种菌株长期存在,尽管存在竞争和抑制相互作用。用数学分析来支持和解释仿真结果。这些发现证明了空间自组织和反应扩散动力学如何介导微生物交叉取食系统中的共存,为微生物群落的生态和进化稳定性提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Bifurcation analysis and fear-induced reactions in non-refuged prey with cooperative hunting among predators: Deterministic and stochastic dynamics 非避难猎物与捕食者合作狩猎的分岔分析与恐惧诱导反应:确定性与随机动力学。
IF 1.8 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2026.109641
Subarna Roy , Abhijit Sarkar , Nazmul Sk , Pankaj Kumar Tiwari , Ranjit Kumar Upadhyay
The impacts of fear, refuge-seeking behavior of prey, and modified cooperative hunting among predators are collectively included in a mathematical model to explore predator-prey dynamics. The stability of the system’s equilibrium points and the occurrence of different bifurcations are analyzed. The system exhibits bistability, characterized by the presence of two stable equilibrium points. Numerical investigation reveals that elevated fear levels simplify the species’ coexistence, even when considering increased refuge and prey birth rate. When hunting cooperation rate is extremely high, prey survival becomes unsustainable, particularly with lower birth rate, unless refuge is sought. Conversely, ample refuge capacity allows prey to persist despite lower birth rates. To create time-series solutions and examine stationary distributions, we run multiple simulations. Notably, species have a tendency to fluctuate around the mean values of the deterministic state when there are minimal external disruptions. Interestingly, an increased noise intensity on predators shifts the system’s dynamics to a predator-free equilibrium from coexistence of prey and predators.
恐惧、猎物的避难行为和捕食者之间改进的合作狩猎的影响被共同纳入一个数学模型,以探索捕食者-猎物动力学。分析了系统平衡点的稳定性和不同分岔的发生。该系统表现出双稳定性,其特点是存在两个稳定的平衡点。数值研究表明,即使考虑到避难所和猎物出生率的增加,恐惧程度的提高也简化了物种的共存。当狩猎合作率极高时,猎物的生存变得不可持续,特别是在低出生率的情况下,除非寻求庇护。相反,充足的避难所容量可以让猎物在出生率较低的情况下存活下来。为了创建时间序列解决方案并检查平稳分布,我们运行了多个模拟。值得注意的是,当存在最小的外部干扰时,物种倾向于在确定性状态的平均值上下波动。有趣的是,捕食者噪音强度的增加使系统动力学从猎物和捕食者共存转变为无捕食者平衡。
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引用次数: 0
Tumor growth and immune response: On the impact of the space-structuration of the tumor microenvironment 肿瘤生长与免疫反应:肿瘤微环境空间结构的影响
IF 1.8 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2026.109650
Christian Tayou Fotso , Fabienne Anjuère , Véronique M. Braud , Florence Hubert , Thierry Goudon
We use a model inspired from mixture theory to describe tumor growth, its interaction with the environment, its needs of nutrients and oxygen supply, and the effects of the immune response. The latter might have a dual nature, since the expected antitumor mechanisms can be perverted at the tumor advantage. The PDE system brings out crucial features of the space organization in shaping tumor expansion or the efficiency of the immune response. In particular, our two-dimensional numerical experiments exhibit equilibrium phases, with a residual tumor kept under control by the immune system. They also show possible displacement of the tumor core, where small volume fractions are able to find an environment favorable to tumor expansion.
我们使用一个受混合理论启发的模型来描述肿瘤的生长,它与环境的相互作用,它对营养和氧气供应的需求,以及免疫反应的影响。后者可能具有双重性质,因为预期的抗肿瘤机制可能在肿瘤优势上被歪曲。PDE系统在形成肿瘤扩张或免疫反应效率方面带来了空间组织的关键特征。特别是,我们的二维数值实验表现出平衡阶段,残余肿瘤受到免疫系统的控制。它们还显示了肿瘤核心可能的位移,在那里,小体积分数能够找到有利于肿瘤扩张的环境。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling periodic transcriptions in tandem gene systems 串联基因系统周期性转录的建模。
IF 1.8 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2026.109648
Wangyang Wu , Shumin Tan , Moxun Tang , Qiwen Sun
We study periodic gene transcription in a tandem gene system, where an external periodic signal modulates the expression of an upstream gene, whose products subsequently regulate the expression of a downstream gene. For the external signal characterized by cosine-wave modulation of the transcription rate, we derive analytical formulas for the mean transcription levels, delays, amplitudes, and noise intensities. The results reveal that the mean transcription levels of both genes exhibit periodic behavior, where the transcription of the downstream gene shows a phase delay with the amplitude proportional to that of the upstream gene. Numerical simulations confirm these findings, demonstrating that the noise increases with the signal strength and is consistently higher for the downstream gene. The delays are determined by the signal’s angular frequency and mRNA degradation rates. This work provides insights into the propagation of periodic signals in gene networks, highlighting the coupling roles of stochastic fluctuations and gene regulations in transcriptional dynamics. The findings have important implications for understanding the regulation of circadian rhythms and for the rational design of synthetic gene circuits.
我们研究了串联基因系统中的周期性基因转录,其中外部周期信号调节上游基因的表达,其产物随后调节下游基因的表达。对于以转录速率的余弦波调制为特征的外部信号,我们推导了平均转录水平、延迟、幅度和噪声强度的解析公式。结果表明,这两个基因的平均转录水平均表现出周期性行为,其中下游基因的转录表现出与上游基因成比例的相位延迟。数值模拟证实了这些发现,表明噪声随着信号强度的增加而增加,并且下游基因的噪声始终较高。延迟由信号的角频率和mRNA降解率决定。这项工作提供了对基因网络中周期信号传播的见解,突出了随机波动和基因调控在转录动力学中的耦合作用。这些发现对于理解昼夜节律的调节和合理设计合成基因回路具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Why does nature force the creation of proteobacteria community in the estuarine ecosystem? - A theoretical model 为什么大自然强迫在河口生态系统中创造变形菌群?-理论模型。
IF 1.8 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2026.109642
Devdatta Adhikary , Sukdev Biswas , Arnab Banerjee , Sabyasachi Bhattacharya
Estuarine ecosystems are among the most dynamic and ecologically significant environments, shaped by intricate interactions among microbial communities, such as proteobacteria and their predator. Proteobacteria, owing to their remarkable tolerance to salinity and unique mixotrophic capabilities, dominate this ecosystem. These traits raise a fundamental ecological question: do proteobacteria act as stabilising agents in estuarine health, and why has evolution favoured their multifunctionality over strict autotrophy or heterotrophy? This study presents a novel theoretical framework, comprising both deterministic and stochastic models, emphasizing key phenomenological traits of mixotrophic proteobacteria in estuarine ecosystems. The autotrophic component is captured using Secchi depth as a proxy for light availability and photosynthetic potential, while heterotrophic behaviour is linked to salinity-driven nutrient uptake. Through analytical exploration and numerical simulations, we find that salinity serves as a crucial control parameter, producing characteristic oscillatory dynamics and a ”bubbling effect” that delineates transitions between stability and instability. The photosynthetic capability of mixotrophic proteobacteria emerges as a critical stabilizing mechanism, particularly under fluctuating salinity and turbidity conditions. Our model identifies critical thresholds for Secchi depth, salinity-driven microzooplankton grazing and nutrient inflow-outflow that underpin estuarine stability. The stochastic extension, incorporating Gaussian white noise, demonstrates that under strong environmental noise, microzooplankton are more prone to extinction than proteobacteria. This work lays a theoretical foundation for future ecological modelling and adaptive estuarine management in the context of climate-driven change.
河口生态系统是最具活力和生态意义的环境之一,由微生物群落(如变形菌及其捕食者)之间复杂的相互作用形成。由于其对盐度的显著耐受性和独特的混合营养能力,变形菌群在这个生态系统中占主导地位。这些特征提出了一个基本的生态学问题:变形菌是否在河口健康中起到稳定剂的作用?为什么进化倾向于它们的多功能性而不是严格的自养或异养?本研究提出了一个新的理论框架,包括确定性和随机模型,强调了河口生态系统中混合营养变形菌的关键现象学特征。自养成分是利用Secchi深度作为光可用性和光合潜力的代表来捕获的,而异养行为与盐度驱动的养分吸收有关。通过分析探索和数值模拟,我们发现盐度是一个关键的控制参数,产生特征振荡动力学和描述稳定与不稳定之间过渡的“鼓泡效应”。混合营养变形菌的光合能力是一个关键的稳定机制,特别是在波动的盐度和浊度条件下。我们的模型确定了sechi深度、盐度驱动的微型浮游动物放牧和支撑河口稳定性的营养物质流入流出的临界阈值。结合高斯白噪声的随机扩展表明,在强环境噪声下,浮游微动物比变形菌更容易灭绝。这项工作为未来气候驱动变化背景下的生态建模和适应性河口管理奠定了理论基础。
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引用次数: 0
Replicator-mutator dynamics for public goods games with institutional incentives 具有制度激励的公共物品博弈的复制-突变动力学。
IF 1.8 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2026.109644
N. Balabanova , M.H. Duong , T.A. Han
Understanding the emergence and stability of cooperation in public goods games is important due to its applications in fields such as biology, economics, and social science. However, a gap remains in comprehending how mutations, both additive and multiplicative, as well as institutional incentives, influence these dynamics. In this paper, we study the replicator-mutator dynamics, with combined additive and multiplicative mutations, for public goods games both in the absence or presence of institutional incentives. For each model, we identify the possible number of (stable) equilibria, demonstrate their attainability, as well as analyse their stability properties. We also characterise the dependence of these equilibria on the model’s parameters via bifurcation analysis and asymptotic behaviour. Our results offer rigorous and quantitative insights into the role of institutional incentives and the effect of combined additive and multiplicative mutations on the evolution of cooperation in the context of public goods games.
理解公共产品游戏中合作的出现和稳定性是很重要的,因为它在生物学、经济学和社会科学等领域都有应用。然而,在理解加性和乘法突变以及制度激励如何影响这些动态方面仍然存在差距。在本文中,我们研究了公共产品博弈中存在或缺乏制度激励时的复制-突变动力学,并结合了加性和乘性突变。对于每个模型,我们确定了(稳定)平衡的可能数量,证明了它们的可达性,并分析了它们的稳定性。我们还通过分岔分析和渐近行为描述了这些平衡点对模型参数的依赖。我们的研究结果为制度性激励的作用以及在公共产品博弈背景下,加性和乘法突变对合作演化的影响提供了严谨和定量的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of human adherence level to control measures on cystic echinococcosis transmission 人类对囊性包虫病传播控制措施依从性的影响。
IF 1.8 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2026.109643
Xinmiao Rong, Fengyun Zhu
Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a widespread zoonotic disease that poses a serious threat to both human health and livestock production. Its control effectiveness largely depends on human adherence. A game-theoretic epidemiological model is developed to couple disease transmission with human behavioral responses, aiming to investigate the effects of human adherence on CE transmission. The equilibria and threshold dynamics are derived, and numerical simulations are conducted to explore how key factors influence disease prevalence, behavioral strategy switching, and control effectiveness. The results indicate that human adherence affects both transmission risk and infection levels, while a higher cost-to-risk ratio suppresses adherence, thereby weakening control outcomes. Model application to Xinjiang Province in China suggests that although CE transmission is currently under control (R0 < 1), recurrence may occur when the initial adherence level falls below the threshold (xA*=0.5706), indicating that when human behavior is considered, relying solely on the basic reproduction number R0 is insufficient to predict long-term transmission dynamics.
囊性棘球蚴病是一种广泛存在的人畜共患疾病,严重威胁人类健康和畜牧业生产。其控制效果在很大程度上取决于人的依从性。建立了一个博弈论流行病学模型,将疾病传播与人类行为反应耦合起来,旨在研究人类依从性对CE传播的影响。导出了均衡和阈值动力学,并进行了数值模拟,探讨了关键因素如何影响疾病患病率、行为策略转换和控制效果。结果表明,人的依从性影响传播风险和感染水平,而较高的成本风险比抑制了依从性,从而削弱了控制结果。对中国新疆省的模型应用表明,虽然目前CE传播得到控制(R0 A*=0.5706),但当考虑人类行为时,仅依靠基本繁殖数R0不足以预测长期传播动态。
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引用次数: 0
A model for a population of trees structured by phenological traits 一个由物候特征构成的树木种群的模型。
IF 1.8 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2026.109640
Sirine Boucenna , Vasilis Dakos , Gaël Raoul
In the context of global warming, tree populations rely on two primary mechanisms of adaptation: phenotypic plasticity, which enables individuals to adjust their behavior in response to environmental stress, and genetic evolution, driven by natural selection and genetic diversity within the population. Understanding the interplay between these mechanisms is crucial for assessing the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems and for informing sustainable management strategies. In this manuscript, we focus on a specific phenological adaptation: the ability of trees to enter summer dormancy once a critical temperature threshold is exceeded. Individuals are characterized by this threshold temperature and by their seed production capacity. We first establish a detailed mathematical model describing the population dynamics under these traits, and progressively reduce it to a system of two coupled ordinary differential equations. This simpler macroscopic model is then analyzed numerically, to investigate how the population reacts to a shift in its environment: an temperature increase, a drop in precipitation levels, or a combination of the two. Our results highlight contrasting effects of water stress and temperature stress on population dynamics, as well as the ambivalent effect of the plasticity.
在全球变暖的背景下,树木种群依靠两种主要的适应机制:表型可塑性(使个体能够调整其行为以应对环境压力)和遗传进化(由种群内的自然选择和遗传多样性驱动)。了解这些机制之间的相互作用对于评估气候变化对森林生态系统的影响以及为可持续管理战略提供信息至关重要。在这篇文章中,我们关注的是一种特定的物候适应:一旦超过临界温度阈值,树木进入夏季休眠的能力。个体的特征是这个阈值温度和它们的种子生产能力。我们首先建立了描述这些性状下种群动态的详细数学模型,并逐步将其简化为两个耦合常微分方程系统。然后对这个简单的宏观模型进行数值分析,以研究种群对环境变化的反应:温度升高,降水水平下降,或两者兼而有。我们的研究结果强调了水胁迫和温度胁迫对种群动态的对比效应,以及可塑性的矛盾效应。
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引用次数: 0
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