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Target reproduction numbers for time-delayed population systems
IF 1.9 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109384
Xueying Wang , Xiao-Qiang Zhao
In the field of population dynamics, target reproduction number is a crucial metric that dictates the necessary control efforts for achieving specific prevention, intervention, or control goals. Recently, the concept of the target reproduction number has undergone significant extensions. Lewis et al. [1] presented a general framework of the target reproduction number for nonnegative matrices, and Wang and Zhao [2] further developed it to positive operators on an ordered Banach space. These extensions encompass fundamental metrics like basic reproduction number and type reproduction number, along with other threshold parameters from existing literature, elucidating their roles in population control. In the current paper, we establish the theory of target reproduction number for a large class of compartmental population models with time delay in the case where control is targeted toward either new infection/production or internal evolution/transition. It turns out that the target reproduction number of the original time-delayed population model can be viewed as a basic reproduction number of some modified system. At the end, we apply these analytic results to three epidemic models, which enhances our theoretical understanding and provides valuable insights for effective strategies in population-based interventions and control measures.
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引用次数: 0
Emergence of multiple foraging strategies under competition 竞争条件下多种觅食策略的出现。
IF 1.9 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109377
Hyunjoong Kim , Manoj Subedi , Krešimir Josić
Foraging strategies are shaped by interactions with the environment, and evolve under metabolic constraints. Optimal strategies for isolated and competing organisms have been studied extensively in the absence of evolution. Much less is understood about how metabolic constraints shape the evolution of an organism’s ability to detect and reach food. To address this question, we introduce a minimal agent-based model of the coevolution of two phenotypic attributes critical for successful foraging in crowded environments: movement speed and perceptual acuity. Under competition higher speed and acuity lead to better foraging success, but at higher metabolic cost. We derive the optimal foraging strategy for a single agent, and show that this strategy is no longer optimal for foragers in a group. We show that mutation and selection can lead to the coexistence of two strategies: A metabolically costly strategy with high acuity and velocity, and a metabolically cheap strategy. Generally, in evolving populations speed and acuity co-vary. Therefore, even under metabolic constraints, trade-offs between metabolically expensive traits are not guaranteed.
觅食策略是由与环境的相互作用形成的,并在代谢约束下进化。在没有进化的情况下,对孤立和竞争生物的最佳策略进行了广泛的研究。对于代谢限制如何影响生物体探测和获取食物的能力的进化,人们知之甚少。为了解决这个问题,我们引入了一个基于最小智能体的模型,该模型描述了在拥挤环境中成功觅食的两个表型属性的共同进化:运动速度和感知敏锐度。在竞争条件下,更高的速度和敏锐度使觅食成功率更高,但代谢成本更高。我们推导出单个agent的最优觅食策略,并证明该策略对于群体中的觅食者不再是最优的。我们发现突变和选择可以导致两种策略的共存:一种是具有高灵敏度和高速度的代谢成本策略,另一种是代谢成本低的策略。一般来说,在进化的种群中,速度和敏锐度是共同变化的。因此,即使在代谢限制下,也不能保证在代谢昂贵的性状之间进行权衡。
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引用次数: 0
Classification of 3-node restricted excitatory–inhibitory networks 3节点限制性兴奋-抑制网络的分类。
IF 1.9 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109372
Manuela Aguiar , Ana Dias , Ian Stewart
We classify connected 3-node restricted excitatory–inhibitory networks, extending our previous paper (Aguiar et al., 2024). We assume that there are two node-types and two arrow-types, excitatory and inhibitory; all excitatory arrows are identical and all inhibitory arrows are identical; and excitatory (resp. inhibitory) nodes can only output excitatory (resp. inhibitory) arrows. The classification is performed under the following two network perspectives: ODE-equivalence and minimality; and valence 2. The results of this and the previous work constitute a first step towards analyzing dynamics and bifurcations of excitatory–inhibitory networks and have potential applications to biological network models.
我们对连接的3节点限制性兴奋-抑制网络进行了分类,扩展了我们之前的论文(Aguiar et al., 2024)。我们假设有两种节点类型和两种箭头类型,兴奋性和抑制性;所有兴奋性箭头是相同的所有抑制性箭头也是相同的;和兴奋(反应)。抑制性节点只能输出兴奋性节点。抑制)箭头。在两个网络视角下进行分类:ode等效性和极小性;价≤2。这一结果和之前的工作构成了分析兴奋-抑制网络的动力学和分支的第一步,并有潜在的应用于生物网络模型。
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引用次数: 0
Infection-induced host extinction: Deterministic and stochastic models for environmentally transmitted pathogens 感染诱导的宿主灭绝:环境传播病原体的确定性和随机模型。
IF 1.9 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109374
Bei Sun , Daozhou Gao , Xueying Wang , Yijun Lou
Amphibian decline and extinction have been observed on a global scale, highlighting the urgency of identifying the underlying factors. This issue has long been recognized as a critical concern in conservation ecology and continues to receive significant attention. Pathogen infection, in particular the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is postulated as a key factor contributing to the decline of certain species within specific regions. In this paper, we focus on identifying the pathogen characteristics that can drive host species extinction. Both deterministic and stochastic modeling frameworks based on a susceptible-infectious-pathogen epidemic model are proposed, to assess the influence of pathogen infection on species decline and extinction. Various indices, including the reproduction numbers of the host species, the replication of the pathogen, and the transmission of the pathogen are derived. Theoretical analysis includes the stability of equilibria, the extinction and persistence of host species in the deterministic model, and the evaluation of extinction probability and average extinction time in the stochastic model. Additionally, numerical simulations are conducted to quantify the effects of various factors on host decline and extinction, as well as the probabilities of extinction. We find two crucial conditions for a pathogen to drive host extinction: (i) the pathogen’s self-reproduction capacity in the environment, and (ii) the pathogen’s impact on the fecundity and survival of the infected host. These findings provide insights that could aid in the design and implementation of effective conservation strategies for amphibians.
两栖动物的减少和灭绝已经在全球范围内观察到,突出了确定潜在因素的紧迫性。这个问题长期以来一直被认为是保护生态学的一个关键问题,并继续受到极大的关注。病原体感染,特别是壶菌壶菌(Batrachochytrium dendroatidis),被认为是导致特定地区某些物种数量下降的关键因素。在本文中,我们着重于识别病原体的特征,可以驱动宿主物种灭绝。提出了基于易感-感染-病原体流行模型的确定性和随机建模框架,以评估病原体感染对物种衰退和灭绝的影响。各种指标,包括宿主物种的繁殖数量,病原体的复制和病原体的传播。理论分析包括确定性模型中平衡的稳定性、宿主物种的灭绝和持久性,以及随机模型中灭绝概率和平均灭绝时间的评估。此外,通过数值模拟量化了各种因素对寄主衰退和灭绝的影响,以及灭绝的概率。我们发现病原体驱动宿主灭绝的两个关键条件:(i)病原体在环境中的自我繁殖能力,以及(ii)病原体对受感染宿主的繁殖力和存活率的影响。这些发现为设计和实施有效的两栖动物保护策略提供了帮助。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling the role of temperature-dependent microbiome composition in black band disease transmission among coral reefs 模拟温度依赖性微生物组组成在珊瑚礁黑带病传播中的作用。
IF 1.9 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109371
Alex Busalacchi , Maya Weissman , Feng-Bin Wang , Naveen K. Vaidya
Black band disease (BBD) is one of the most prevalent diseases causing significant destruction of coral reefs. Coral reefs acquire this deadly disease from bacteria in the microbiome community, the composition of which is highly affected by the environmental temperature. While previous studies have provided valuable insights into various aspects of BBD, the temperature-dependent microbiome composition has not been considered in existing BBD models. We developed a transmission dynamics model, incorporating the effects of temperature on the microbiome composition and, subsequently, on BBD in coral reefs. Based on our non-autonomous model systems, we calculate the infection invasion threshold, providing an environmental condition for the disease to persist in the coral reef community. Our results suggest that temperature significantly impacts coral reef health, with microbiome-favored moderate environmental temperatures resulting in more BBD-infected corals. Our model and related results help investigate potential strategies to protect reef ecosystems from stressors, including BBD.
黑带病(BBD)是造成珊瑚礁严重破坏的最常见疾病之一。珊瑚礁从微生物群落中的细菌中获得这种致命疾病,微生物群落的组成受到环境温度的高度影响。虽然以前的研究已经为BBD的各个方面提供了有价值的见解,但现有的BBD模型尚未考虑温度依赖性微生物组组成。我们开发了一个传播动力学模型,将温度对微生物组组成的影响以及随后对珊瑚礁中BBD的影响纳入其中。基于我们的非自治模型系统,我们计算了感染入侵阈值,为疾病在珊瑚礁群落中持续存在提供了环境条件。我们的研究结果表明,温度显著影响珊瑚礁的健康,微生物群有利的中等环境温度导致更多的珊瑚感染bbd。我们的模型和相关结果有助于研究保护珊瑚礁生态系统免受包括BBD在内的压力源的潜在策略。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling the stochastic importation dynamics and establishment of novel pathogenic strains using a general branching processes framework 用一般分支过程框架模拟随机输入动力学和建立新的致病菌株。
IF 1.9 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109352
Jacob Curran-Sebastian , Frederik Mølkjær Andersen , Samir Bhatt
The importation and subsequent establishment of novel pathogenic strains in a population is subject to a large degree of uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of the disease dynamics. Mathematical models need to take this stochasticity in the early phase of an outbreak into account in order to adequately capture the uncertainty in disease forecasts. We propose a general branching process model of disease spread that includes host-level heterogeneity, and that can be straightforwardly tailored to capture the salient aspects of a particular disease outbreak. We combine this with a model of case importation that occurs via an independent marked Poisson process. We use this framework to investigate the impact of different control strategies, particularly on the time to establishment of an invading, exogenous strain, using parameters taken from the literature for COVID-19 as an example. We also demonstrate how to combine our model with a deterministic approximation, such that longer term projections can be generated that still incorporate the uncertainty from the early growth phase of the epidemic. Our approach produces meaningful short- and medium-term projections of the course of a disease outbreak when model parameters are still uncertain and when stochasticity still has a large effect on the population dynamics.
由于疾病动态的随机性,在种群中输入和随后建立新的致病菌株具有很大程度的不确定性。数学模型需要在暴发的早期阶段考虑到这种随机性,以便充分捕捉疾病预测中的不确定性。我们提出了一个疾病传播的一般分支过程模型,该模型包括宿主水平的异质性,并且可以直接定制以捕获特定疾病爆发的显着方面。我们将此与病例输入模型相结合,该模型通过独立的标记泊松过程发生。我们使用该框架来研究不同控制策略的影响,特别是对建立入侵外源菌株的时间的影响,并以COVID-19文献中的参数为例。我们还演示了如何将我们的模型与确定性近似相结合,这样就可以生成长期预测,其中仍然包含流行病早期增长阶段的不确定性。当模型参数仍然不确定且随机性仍然对种群动态有很大影响时,我们的方法产生了有意义的疾病爆发过程的短期和中期预测。
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引用次数: 0
A simultaneous simulation of human behavior dynamics and epidemic spread: A multi-country study amidst the COVID-19 pandemic 人类行为动态与流行病传播的同步模拟:COVID-19 大流行中的多国研究》。
IF 1.9 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109368
Ann Osi, Navid Ghaffarzadegan
The transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and human responses are intertwined, forming complex feedback loops. However, many epidemic models fail to endogenously represent human behavior change. In this study, we introduce a novel behavioral epidemic model that incorporates various behavioral phenomena into SEIR models, including risk-response dynamics, shifts in containment policies, adherence fatigue, and societal learning, alongside disease transmission dynamics. By testing our model against data from 8 countries, where extensive behavioral data were available, we simultaneously replicate death rates, mobility trends, fatigue levels, and policy changes, both in-sample and out-of-sample. Our model offers a comprehensive depiction of changes in multiple behavioral measures along with the spread of the disease. We assess the explanatory power of each model mechanism in capturing data variability. Our findings demonstrate that the comprehensive model that includes all mechanisms provides the most insightful perspective for understanding the influence of human behavior during pandemics.
传染病的传播动态与人类的反应相互交织,形成了复杂的反馈回路。然而,许多流行病模型不能内生地反映人类行为的变化。在这项研究中,我们引入了一个新的行为流行病模型,该模型将各种行为现象纳入SEIR模型,包括风险反应动力学、遏制政策的转变、依从性疲劳和社会学习,以及疾病传播动力学。通过对来自8个国家的数据进行模型测试(这些国家有大量的行为数据),我们同时复制了样本内和样本外的死亡率、流动性趋势、疲劳程度和政策变化。我们的模型提供了多种行为测量随疾病传播变化的全面描述。我们评估了每个模型机制在捕获数据变异性方面的解释力。我们的研究结果表明,包含所有机制的综合模型为理解大流行期间人类行为的影响提供了最有见地的视角。
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引用次数: 0
Generalized measures of population synchrony 人口同步性的广义测度。
IF 1.9 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109344
Francis C. Motta , Kevin McGoff , Breschine Cummins , Steven B. Haase
Synchronized behavior among individuals, broadly defined, is a ubiquitous feature of populations. Understanding mechanisms of (de)synchronization demands meaningful, interpretable, computable quantifications of synchrony, relevant to measurements that can be made of complex, dynamic populations. Despite the importance to analyzing and modeling populations, existing notions of synchrony often lack rigorous definitions, may be specialized to a particular experimental system and/or measurement, or may have undesirable properties that limit their utility. Here we introduce a notion of synchrony for populations of individuals occupying a compact metric space that depends on the Fréchet variance of the distribution of individuals across the space. We establish several fundamental and desirable mathematical properties of our proposed measure of synchrony, including continuity and invariance to metric scaling. We establish a general approximation result that controls the disparity between synchrony in the true space and the synchrony observed through a discretization of state space, as may occur when observable states are limited by measurement constraints. We develop efficient algorithms to compute synchrony for distributions in a variety of state spaces, including all finite state spaces and empirical distributions on the circle, and provide accessible implementations in an open-source Python module. To demonstrate the usefulness of the synchrony measure in biological applications, we investigate several biologically relevant models of mechanisms that can alter the dynamics of population synchrony over time, and reanalyze published experimental and model data concerning the dynamics of the intraerythrocytic developmental cycles of Plasmodium parasites. We anticipate that the rigorous definition of population synchrony and the mathematical and biological results presented here will be broadly useful in analyzing and modeling populations in a variety of contexts.
从广义上讲,个体间的同步行为是群体中普遍存在的特征。理解(非)同步的机制需要对同步进行有意义的、可解释的、可计算的量化,这些量化与可以对复杂的、动态的种群进行测量相关。尽管对群体的分析和建模很重要,但现有的同步概念往往缺乏严格的定义,可能专门用于特定的实验系统和/或测量,或者可能具有限制其效用的不良属性。在这里,我们引入了一个同步的概念,即占据紧致度量空间的个体群体,它取决于个体在空间中分布的可变方差。我们建立了我们提出的同步测度的几个基本和理想的数学性质,包括连续性和对度量尺度的不变性。我们建立了一个一般的近似结果,该结果控制了真实空间中的同步与通过状态空间离散化观察到的同步之间的差异,这可能发生在可观察状态受到测量约束的限制时。我们开发了有效的算法来计算各种状态空间中的分布的同步,包括所有有限状态空间和圆上的经验分布,并在开源Python模块中提供可访问的实现。为了证明同步测量在生物学应用中的有用性,我们研究了几种生物相关的机制模型,这些模型可以改变种群同步随时间的动态,并重新分析了有关疟原虫红细胞内发育周期动力学的已发表实验和模型数据。我们预计,种群同步的严格定义以及这里提出的数学和生物学结果将在各种情况下的种群分析和建模中广泛有用。
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引用次数: 0
Competing elastic and viscous gradients determine directional cell migration 竞争的弹性和粘性梯度决定了细胞的定向迁移。
IF 1.9 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109362
Pablo Saez , Pallavi U. Shirke , Jyoti R. Seth , Jorge Alegre-Cebollada , Abhijit Majumder
Cell migration regulates central life processes including embryonic development, tissue regeneration, and tumor invasion. To establish the direction of migration, cells follow exogenous cues. Durotaxis, the directed cell migration towards elastic stiffness gradients, is the classical example of mechanical taxis. However, whether gradients of the relaxation properties in the extracellular matrix may also induce tactic responses (viscotaxis) is not well understood. Moreover, whether and how durotaxis and viscotaxis interact with each other has never been investigated. Here, we integrate clutch models for cell adhesions with an active gel theory of cell migration to reveal the mechanisms that govern viscotaxis. We show that viscotaxis is enabled by an asymmetric expression of cell adhesions that further polarize the intracellular motility forces to establish the cell front, similar to durotaxis. More importantly, when both relaxation and elastic gradients coexist, durotaxis appears more efficient in controlling directed cell migration, which we confirm with experimental results. However, the presence of opposing relaxation gradients to an elastic one can arrest or shift the migration direction. Our model rationalizes for the first time the mechanisms that govern viscotaxis and its competition with durotaxis through a mathematical model.
细胞迁移调节中枢生命过程,包括胚胎发育、组织再生和肿瘤侵袭。为了确定迁移的方向,细胞遵循外源信号。定向细胞向弹性刚度梯度的迁移是机械迁移的经典例子。然而,细胞外基质弛豫特性的梯度是否也可能诱导策略反应(粘滞性)尚不清楚。此外,硬性和粘性是否相互作用以及如何相互作用从未被研究过。在这里,我们将细胞粘附的离合器模型与细胞迁移的活性凝胶理论相结合,以揭示控制黏性的机制。我们发现,黏性是通过细胞粘附的不对称表达实现的,这种不对称表达进一步极化细胞内运动力以建立细胞前沿,类似于黏性。更重要的是,当松弛梯度和弹性梯度共存时,硬度趋向性在控制定向细胞迁移方面似乎更有效,我们用实验结果证实了这一点。然而,与弹性弛豫梯度相反的弛豫梯度的存在可以阻止或改变迁移方向。我们的模型首次通过数学模型合理化了控制粘性及其与硬性竞争的机制。
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引用次数: 0
Deficient cell-cell cohesion is linked with lobular localization in simplified models of lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) 在小叶原位癌(LCIS)简化模型中,细胞内聚缺陷与小叶定位有关。
IF 1.9 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109369
Matthias Christgen , Rodrigo A. Caetano , Michael Eisenburger , Arne Traulsen , Philipp M. Altrock
Lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) is a precursor of invasive lobular carcinoma of the breast. LCIS cells lack cell-cell cohesion due to the loss of E-cadherin. LCIS cells grow in mammary lobules rather than in ducts. The etiology of this pattern, especially its dependence on cellular cohesion, is incompletely understood. We simulated passive intra-glandular scattering of carcinoma in situ (CIS) cells in an ultra-simplified hollow mold tissue replica (HMTR) and a discrete-time mathematical model featuring particles of variable sizes representing single cells (LCIS-like particles) or groups of cohesive carcinoma cells (DCIS-like particles). The HMTR features structures reminiscent of a mammary duct with associated lobules. The discrete mathematical model characterizes spatial redistribution over time and includes transition probabilities between ductal or lobular localizations. Redistribution of particles converged toward an equilibrium depending on particle size. Strikingly, equilibrium proportions depended on particle properties, which we also confirm in a continuous-time mathematical model that considers controlling lobular properties such as crowding. Particles of increasing size, representing CIS cells with proficient cohesion, showed increasingly higher equilibrium ductal proportions. Our investigations represent two conceptual abstractions implying a link between loss of cell-cell cohesion and lobular localization of LCIS, which provide a much-needed logical foundation for studying the connections between collective cell behavior and cancer development in breast tissues. In light of the findings from our simplified modeling approach, we discuss multiple avenues for near-future research that can address and evaluate the redistribution hypothesis mathematically and empirically.
小叶原位癌(LCIS)是乳腺浸润性小叶癌的前兆。由于e -钙粘蛋白的缺失,LCIS细胞缺乏细胞间的凝聚力。LCIS细胞生长在乳腺小叶而不是乳腺导管中。这种模式的病因,特别是它对细胞内聚的依赖,还不完全清楚。我们在超简化的中空模组织复制品(HMTR)和离散时间数学模型中模拟了原位癌(CIS)细胞的被动腺内散射,该模型具有代表单个细胞(lcis样颗粒)或内聚癌细胞群(dcis样颗粒)的可变大小颗粒。HMTR的结构类似于乳腺导管和相关小叶。离散数学模型表征了随时间的空间再分布,并包括导管或小叶定位之间的转移概率。粒子的重新分布取决于粒子的大小,趋向于一种平衡。引人注目的是,平衡比例取决于粒子的性质,我们也在考虑控制小叶性质(如拥挤)的连续时间数学模型中证实了这一点。颗粒的大小越来越大,代表CIS细胞具有熟练的凝聚力,显示出越来越高的平衡导管比例。我们的研究代表了两个概念抽象,暗示了细胞-细胞内聚丧失和LCIS小叶定位之间的联系,这为研究乳腺组织中集体细胞行为与癌症发展之间的联系提供了急需的逻辑基础。根据我们简化建模方法的发现,我们讨论了近期研究的多种途径,可以在数学和经验上解决和评估再分配假设。
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