Technical and economic modelling of last-mile transport: A case for Brazil

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Case Studies on Transport Policy Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI:10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101219

Huang Wei, Camila Callegari, Ana Carolina Oliveira Fiorini, Roberto Schaeffer, Alexandre Szklo

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Abstract

In response to the escalating demands of urban logistics and the environmental impacts of last-mile deliveries in cities, this study assesses the transition to electric vehicles (EV) in the last-mile delivery transportation sector. We developed a methodology to project last-mile fleets and assess whether electrification considering a scrappage policy makes economic sense. This method utilizes socio-economic, geographic, and technical data to assess annual delivery volumes, travel distances, total ownership costs, and breakeven analysis for diesel and electric vehicles, focusing on Brazilian urban centers. Results show that in 2030, in all urban densities, EV have lower operating costs, and they are the more economical choice for all cities or lifespans by 2035. EVs stand out, particularly with extended vehicle lifespans and increased delivery frequencies. Our findings provide a versatile method for assessing the technical and economic feasibility of electric vehicles across diverse demographic areas.

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最后一英里运输的技术和经济建模：巴西案例

为了应对城市物流不断升级的需求以及城市最后一英里配送对环境的影响，本研究评估了最后一英里配送运输部门向电动汽车（EV）的过渡。我们开发了一种方法来预测最后一英里车队，并评估考虑报废政策的电气化是否具有经济意义。该方法利用社会经济、地理和技术数据，以巴西城市中心为重点，评估柴油车和电动车的年交付量、行驶距离、总拥有成本和盈亏平衡分析。结果表明，2030 年，在所有城市密度下，电动汽车的运营成本都较低，到 2035 年，在所有城市或生命周期内，电动汽车都是更经济的选择。电动汽车表现突出，尤其是在车辆寿命延长和配送频率增加的情况下。我们的研究结果为评估电动汽车在不同人口地区的技术和经济可行性提供了一种通用方法。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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