Pub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101744
Camilla Gonzaga , Ana Beatriz Ribeiro , Vanielle Aparecida do Patrocinio Gomes , Thiago Padovani Xavier , Noéle Bissoli Perini de Souza
This study presents a comprehensive bibliographic and bibliometric review aimed at identifying and systematizing the main characteristics and quality attributes of offshore air transportation, particularly helicopter services connecting onshore bases to offshore oil and gas platforms. Despite its strategic importance for energy production and worker mobility, offshore air transport remains underexplored in terms of service quality and passenger perception. The analysis integrated publications from 2011 to 2025 retrieved from the Web of Science database, complemented by quantitative and qualitative evaluations using Biblioshiny and Bibliometrix tools. Eleven core attributes were identified, including Safety, Reliability, Service Frequency, Aircraft Conditions, Travel Time, Information Systems, Operator Behavior, and Infrastructure, which together define the technical, operational, and human dimensions of offshore air transport quality. Findings reveal a research gap in user-centered studies and highlight the potential to adapt quality assessment models, such as SERVQUAL, to the offshore context. This synthesis provides a conceptual foundation for future empirical applications and supports the development of management tools and performance indicators that enhance safety, efficiency, and passenger satisfaction in offshore aviation.
本研究提出了一个全面的参考文献和文献计量学综述，旨在确定和系统化海上航空运输的主要特征和质量属性，特别是连接陆上基地和海上油气平台的直升机服务。尽管海上航空运输对能源生产和工人流动具有战略重要性，但在服务质量和乘客感知方面仍未得到充分开发。该分析综合了从Web of Science数据库检索的2011年至2025年的出版物，并辅以使用Biblioshiny和Bibliometrix工具的定量和定性评估。确定了11个核心属性，包括安全性、可靠性、服务频率、飞机状况、旅行时间、信息系统、操作员行为和基础设施，它们共同定义了海上航空运输质量的技术、操作和人员维度。研究结果揭示了以用户为中心的研究的研究差距，并强调了将质量评估模型（如SERVQUAL）适应离岸环境的潜力。这种综合为未来的经验应用提供了概念基础，并支持开发管理工具和绩效指标，以提高海上航空的安全性、效率和乘客满意度。
{"title":"Attributes and characteristics of quality in offshore air transportation service","authors":"Camilla Gonzaga , Ana Beatriz Ribeiro , Vanielle Aparecida do Patrocinio Gomes , Thiago Padovani Xavier , Noéle Bissoli Perini de Souza","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101744","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101744","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents a comprehensive bibliographic and bibliometric review aimed at identifying and systematizing the main characteristics and quality attributes of offshore air transportation, particularly helicopter services connecting onshore bases to offshore oil and gas platforms. Despite its strategic importance for energy production and worker mobility, offshore air transport remains underexplored in terms of service quality and passenger perception. The analysis integrated publications from 2011 to 2025 retrieved from the Web of Science database, complemented by quantitative and qualitative evaluations using Biblioshiny and Bibliometrix tools. Eleven core attributes were identified, including Safety, Reliability, Service Frequency, Aircraft Conditions, Travel Time, Information Systems, Operator Behavior, and Infrastructure, which together define the technical, operational, and human dimensions of offshore air transport quality. Findings reveal a research gap in user-centered studies and highlight the potential to adapt quality assessment models, such as SERVQUAL, to the offshore context. This synthesis provides a conceptual foundation for future empirical applications and supports the development of management tools and performance indicators that enhance safety, efficiency, and passenger satisfaction in offshore aviation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 101744"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146193020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Single-motorcycle crashes represent a critical transportation safety challenge, particularly in developing countries with high motorcycle usage. This study proposes a novel hybrid Random Forest-Convolutional Neural Network (RF-CNN) model for predicting injury severity in single-motorcycle crashes, addressing the persistent trade-off between predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Utilizing 5,975 single-motorcycle crashes from Thailand’s Highway Accident Information Management System (2016–2023), this study implemented a weighted ensemble framework combining Random Forest interpretability with CNN pattern recognition capabilities. The methodology included Random Forest-based feature selection identifying 25 critical variables across four domains (temporal, roadway, environmental, and crash characteristics), class balancing using SMOTE, and a weighted fusion strategy (85% CNN, 15% RF). Model performance was evaluated against standalone Random Forest, CNN, and Binary Logistic regression baselines using accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-Score metrics. The hybrid RF-CNN model achieved superior performance with 58.9% accuracy and a recall of 69.9%, outperforming all baseline models in severe-crash detection. SHAP explainability analysis revealed that nighttime conditions with electrical lighting emerged as the most influential severity factor, followed by lane configuration, curved roadway geometry, and behavioral factors including speeding and alcohol involvement. Complex interaction effects were identified, demonstrating the model’s capability to capture non-linear risk relationships. The findings provide actionable guidance for targeted interventions, including enhanced roadway lighting, curve-specific speed management, median upgrades, and improved work zone safety protocols. This research contributes to explainable AI applications in transportation safety, demonstrating that hybrid modeling approaches can balance predictive performance with interpretability while supporting evidence-based motorcycle safety policy in developing countries.
{"title":"An explainable RF-CNN model for injury severity prediction in single-motorcycle crashes","authors":"Sonita Sum , Panuwat Wisutwattanasak , Thanapong Champahom , Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao , Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101745","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101745","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Single-motorcycle crashes represent a critical transportation safety challenge, particularly in developing countries with high motorcycle usage. This study proposes a novel hybrid Random Forest-Convolutional Neural Network (RF-CNN) model for predicting injury severity in single-motorcycle crashes, addressing the persistent trade-off between predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Utilizing 5,975 single-motorcycle crashes from Thailand’s Highway Accident Information Management System (2016–2023), this study implemented a weighted ensemble framework combining Random Forest interpretability with CNN pattern recognition capabilities. The methodology included Random Forest-based feature selection identifying 25 critical variables across four domains (temporal, roadway, environmental, and crash characteristics), class balancing using SMOTE, and a weighted fusion strategy (85% CNN, 15% RF). Model performance was evaluated against standalone Random Forest, CNN, and Binary Logistic regression baselines using accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-Score metrics. The hybrid RF-CNN model achieved superior performance with 58.9% accuracy and a recall of 69.9%, outperforming all baseline models in severe-crash detection. SHAP explainability analysis revealed that nighttime conditions with electrical lighting emerged as the most influential severity factor, followed by lane configuration, curved roadway geometry, and behavioral factors including speeding and alcohol involvement. Complex interaction effects were identified, demonstrating the model’s capability to capture non-linear risk relationships. The findings provide actionable guidance for targeted interventions, including enhanced roadway lighting, curve-specific speed management, median upgrades, and improved work zone safety protocols. This research contributes to explainable AI applications in transportation safety, demonstrating that hybrid modeling approaches can balance predictive performance with interpretability while supporting evidence-based motorcycle safety policy in developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 101745"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146193019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-29DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101735
Lisa L. Losada-Rojas , Eric J. Miller
The impact of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) on our everyday lives depends on their usage and operation, as they can yield either favorable or unfavorable outcomes. AVs with self-driving capabilities can generate trips by zero-occupancy vehicles (ZOVs), i.e., AVs that travel without passengers. Unlike occupied AVs that replace human-driven trips, ZOVs generate additional empty vehicle circulation as they reposition between trips or seek parking, raising distinct concerns for traffic management, environmental sustainability, and infrastructure planning. While prior research has focused on quantitative modeling of ZOV impacts, policymakers and stakeholders’ perspectives on regulating this emerging technology remain underexplored. This study addresses this gap through qualitative analysis of focus groups and interviews with 45 stakeholders in Toronto, Canada, including planners, engineers, and policymakers. Toronto provides a relevant case study as a major North American city actively planning for AV deployment, with municipal authority over transportation policy that enables regulatory innovation. Through thematic analysis, we identify key policy concerns such as congestion management, environmental sustainability, infrastructure adaptation, and the economic implications of AV adoption. Stakeholders emphasized the need for regulatory interventions to limit unnecessary ZOV trips. Specific recommendations include establishing dedicated lanes and designated testing areas for safe ZOV deployment, creating comprehensive mobility pricing frameworks, and leveraging data from connected vehicles and infrastructure for real-time traffic management and emergency response prioritization. Standardization and cross-sector collaboration between government, industry, and academia were seen as critical to ensuring an effective transition. Our findings provide evidence-based guidance for policymakers navigating the regulatory challenges of ZOV deployment and highlight the need for adaptive, collaborative governance approaches in the context of rapidly evolving autonomous vehicle technology.
{"title":"Anticipating the consequences of zero-occupant vehicles (ZOV): a qualitative study of urban mobility impacts in Toronto","authors":"Lisa L. Losada-Rojas , Eric J. Miller","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101735","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101735","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impact of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) on our everyday lives depends on their usage and operation, as they can yield either favorable or unfavorable outcomes. AVs with self-driving capabilities can generate trips by zero-occupancy vehicles (ZOVs), i.e., AVs that travel without passengers. Unlike occupied AVs that replace human-driven trips, ZOVs generate additional empty vehicle circulation as they reposition between trips or seek parking, raising distinct concerns for traffic management, environmental sustainability, and infrastructure planning. While prior research has focused on quantitative modeling of ZOV impacts, policymakers and stakeholders’ perspectives on regulating this emerging technology remain underexplored. This study addresses this gap through qualitative analysis of focus groups and interviews with 45 stakeholders in Toronto, Canada, including planners, engineers, and policymakers. Toronto provides a relevant case study as a major North American city actively planning for AV deployment, with municipal authority over transportation policy that enables regulatory innovation. Through thematic analysis, we identify key policy concerns such as congestion management, environmental sustainability, infrastructure adaptation, and the economic implications of AV adoption. Stakeholders emphasized the need for regulatory interventions to limit unnecessary ZOV trips. Specific recommendations include establishing dedicated lanes and designated testing areas for safe ZOV deployment, creating comprehensive mobility pricing frameworks, and leveraging data from connected vehicles and infrastructure for real-time traffic management and emergency response prioritization. Standardization and cross-sector collaboration between government, industry, and academia were seen as critical to ensuring an effective transition. Our findings provide evidence-based guidance for policymakers navigating the regulatory challenges of ZOV deployment and highlight the need for adaptive, collaborative governance approaches in the context of rapidly evolving autonomous vehicle technology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101735"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146076777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-27DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101726
Ömür Kaygisiz , Metin Senbil , Ahmet Yildiz
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Influence of urban built environment on traffic accidents: The case of Eskisehir (Turkey)” [Case Stud. Transp. Policy 5(2) (2017) 306–313]","authors":"Ömür Kaygisiz , Metin Senbil , Ahmet Yildiz","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101726","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101726","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101726"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147395204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101706
Hagui Abdelhamid
{"title":"Coexisting on the move: Mobility conflicts and urban injustice in the peripheries of Greater Tunis","authors":"Hagui Abdelhamid","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101706","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101706","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101706"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146187388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101740
Stijn Michielsen, Roel Gevaers, Wouter Dewulf
Definitions and statistics for (cross-border) e-commerce remain unsettled, and common proxies, corporate headquarters or website domains, do not track where fulfilment value is created. We propose a logistics-anchored attribution rule that classifies business-to-consumer transactions by the country of the last value-adding node immediately before last-mile injection (storage, pick/pack, labelling, quality control, returns triage). Using a common 2022 firm dataset for Belgium, we compare three approaches: headquarters-based, web-domain-based, and our logistics-anchored rule, while holding market totals, marketplace splits, and coverage constant and triangulating operations through twenty expert interviews.
Across methods, Belgium’s e-commerce is predominantly cross-border. The preferred logistics-anchored estimate attributes roughly one quarter of spend to domestic fulfilment and three quarters to cross-border nodes, concentrated in The Netherlands and Germany. Interviews link this pattern to higher labour costs, historically tighter evening/night-work rules, and platform consolidation that places pick/pack capacity just across the border. The results show how method choice alone shifts headline shares and why an attribution tied to fulfilment location provides a more operationally faithful and policy-relevant view than headquarters or domain proxies.
The approach is portable: with firm-level revenues, a standardised marketplace treatment (1P, 3P platform-fulfilled, 3P seller-fulfilled), and targeted operational triangulation, other countries can replicate the exercise to better align e-commerce measurement with physical flows and last-mile impacts.
{"title":"Logistics-anchored attribution for cross-border e-commerce: A Belgian case study","authors":"Stijn Michielsen, Roel Gevaers, Wouter Dewulf","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101740","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101740","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Definitions and statistics for (cross-border) e-commerce remain unsettled, and common proxies, corporate headquarters or website domains, do not track where fulfilment value is created. We propose a logistics-anchored attribution rule that classifies business-to-consumer transactions by the country of the last value-adding node immediately before last-mile injection (storage, pick/pack, labelling, quality control, returns triage). Using a common 2022 firm dataset for Belgium, we compare three approaches: headquarters-based, web-domain-based, and our logistics-anchored rule, while holding market totals, marketplace splits, and coverage constant and triangulating operations through twenty expert interviews.</div><div>Across methods, Belgium’s e-commerce is predominantly cross-border. The preferred logistics-anchored estimate attributes roughly one quarter of spend to domestic fulfilment and three quarters to cross-border nodes, concentrated in The Netherlands and Germany. Interviews link this pattern to higher labour costs, historically tighter evening/night-work rules, and platform consolidation that places pick/pack capacity just across the border. The results show how method choice alone shifts headline shares and why an attribution tied to fulfilment location provides a more operationally faithful and policy-relevant view than headquarters or domain proxies.</div><div>The approach is portable: with firm-level revenues, a standardised marketplace treatment (1P, 3P platform-fulfilled, 3P seller-fulfilled), and targeted operational triangulation, other countries can replicate the exercise to better align e-commerce measurement with physical flows and last-mile impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101740"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146187500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bus rapid transit (BRT) has been widely adopted in emerging economies for its affordability and incremental implementation potential. Yet, many cities are now starting to implement urban rail as a higher-quality mass-transit alternative. This raises the question of the role of existing BRT networks once rail arrives, particularly regarding their land-value effects. This paper examines how BRT-related land value uplift (LVU) evolves after rail begins operation, using Jakarta as a case study. The study analyses residential land values around Transjakarta BRT and MRT Jakarta stations for 2017 (pre-rail) and 2021 (post-rail) using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The findings reveal that (1) proximity to Transjakarta stations was associated with uplift in 2017, particularly in South Jakarta; (2) by 2021, BRT proximity penalties were reported citywide, especially in the north and east, but also in Central Jakarta; and (3) proximity to MRT Jakarta stations was associated with consistent uplift in 2021, with strongest effects at upgraded interchange nodes in South Jakarta. The timing and spatial coherence of these patterns are consistent with a rail-led substitution mechanism in which urban policy attention and developer actions concentrate willingness-to-pay near rail, while stand-alone BRT corridors increasingly reflect proximity penalties in prices. Policy recommendations include strategic co-location and integration of BRT-MRT stations, mitigating BRT proximity effects with context-sensitive station design, and timely transit-oriented development (TOD) and land value capture (LVC) at integrated hubs to harness value where market signals are strongest.
{"title":"Evolving land value effects of BRT and MRT: Evidence from Jakarta’s mobility transition","authors":"Franco Jauregui-Fung , Tobias Kuhnimhof , Jeffrey Kenworthy","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101668","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101668","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Bus rapid transit (BRT) has been widely adopted in emerging economies for its affordability and incremental implementation potential. Yet, many cities are now starting to implement urban rail as a higher-quality mass-transit alternative. This raises the question of the role of existing BRT networks once rail arrives, particularly regarding their land-value effects. This paper examines how BRT-related land value uplift (LVU) evolves after rail begins operation, using Jakarta as a case study. The study analyses residential land values around Transjakarta BRT and MRT Jakarta stations for 2017 (pre-rail) and 2021 (post-rail) using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The findings reveal that (1) proximity to Transjakarta stations was associated with uplift in 2017, particularly in South Jakarta; (2) by 2021, BRT proximity penalties were reported citywide, especially in the north and east, but also in Central Jakarta; and (3) proximity to MRT Jakarta stations was associated with consistent uplift in 2021, with strongest effects at upgraded interchange nodes in South Jakarta. The timing and spatial coherence of these patterns are consistent with a rail-led substitution mechanism in which urban policy attention and developer actions concentrate willingness-to-pay near rail, while stand-alone BRT corridors increasingly reflect proximity penalties in prices. Policy recommendations include strategic co-location and integration of BRT-MRT stations, mitigating BRT proximity effects with context-sensitive station design, and timely transit-oriented development (TOD) and land value capture (LVC) at integrated hubs to harness value where market signals are strongest.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101668"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101704
Mao Changjiang, Luo Jian, Jiang xue, Jiao Shengyang
While numerous studies have investigated the regional economic impacts of high-speed rail (HSR), its role within “twin-core” urban agglomerations in topographically complex regions remains inadequately explored. This study addresses this gap by examining the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle, a representative region characterized by complex mountainous terrain. Utilizing panel data from 2000 to 2020, apply both a multiperiod difference-in-differences (DID) approach and a Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model. This methodology elucidates the causal mechanisms and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of HSR’s differential economic effects on core versus peripheral cities.Our findings reveal three key results: (1) Although HSR significantly fosters aggregate regional economic growth, its benefits are distributed highly unevenly, exhibiting a pattern of uneven spatial diffusion. While core cities capture larger direct gains, significant positive spillovers to peripheral cities are identified. This diffusion effect, however, is strongly moderated by rugged terrain, which attenuates spillovers and perpetuates core-periphery disparities. (2) The GTWR model further delineates the underlying causes of this spatial heterogeneity. The complex, rugged topography significantly escalates HSR construction and operational costs, thereby attenuating its positive economic spillovers. Topography thus emerges as a critical moderating variable, accounting for the stark disparity in HSR derived economic benefits between flat and mountainous areas. (3) Mechanism analysis indicates that HSR primarily stimulates economic growth by boosting tertiary sector employment.This study provides causal and spatial empirical evidence for the applicability of the “core-periphery” theory in settings with complex topography. Our conclusions underscore the imperative of incorporating geographical constraints into transportation infrastructure planning. Accordingly, we propose targeted policy recommendations to foster regional coordination, mitigate topographical disadvantages, and advance the superior, integrated development of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle.
{"title":"From ‘tale of two cities’ to ‘economic circle’: an assessment of the differential effects of high-speed railway on the economic growth of Chengdu-Chongqing twin-city economic circle","authors":"Mao Changjiang, Luo Jian, Jiang xue, Jiao Shengyang","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101704","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101704","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While numerous studies have investigated the regional economic impacts of high-speed rail (HSR), its role within “twin-core” urban agglomerations in topographically complex regions remains inadequately explored. This study addresses this gap by examining the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle, a representative region characterized by complex mountainous terrain. Utilizing panel data from 2000 to 2020, apply both a multiperiod difference-in-differences (DID) approach and a Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model. This methodology elucidates the causal mechanisms and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of HSR’s differential economic effects on core versus peripheral cities.Our findings reveal three key results: (1) Although HSR significantly fosters aggregate regional economic growth, its benefits are distributed highly unevenly, exhibiting a pattern of uneven spatial diffusion. While core cities capture larger direct gains, significant positive spillovers to peripheral cities are identified. This diffusion effect, however, is strongly moderated by rugged terrain, which attenuates spillovers and perpetuates core-periphery disparities. (2) The GTWR model further delineates the underlying causes of this spatial heterogeneity. The complex, rugged topography significantly escalates HSR construction and operational costs, thereby attenuating its positive economic spillovers. Topography thus emerges as a critical moderating variable, accounting for the stark disparity in HSR derived economic benefits between flat and mountainous areas. (3) Mechanism analysis indicates that HSR primarily stimulates economic growth by boosting tertiary sector employment.This study provides causal and spatial empirical evidence for the applicability of the “core-periphery” theory in settings with complex topography. Our conclusions underscore the imperative of incorporating geographical constraints into transportation infrastructure planning. Accordingly, we propose targeted policy recommendations to foster regional coordination, mitigate topographical disadvantages, and advance the<!--> <!-->superior, integrated development of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101704"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-31DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101703
Caterina Caramuta, Alessia Grosso, Giovanni Longo
The severe repercussions of the Red Sea crisis on supply chains, as well as the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have highlighted once again their great vulnerability, especially in the face of major and unpredictable shocks. The impacts of these latter have therefore urged decision makers to define resiliency strategies to cope with the uncertainty characterizing the operating environment. With reference to a transport node, in this paper the scenario development approach has been adopted to formally investigate possible futures for the Port of Trieste, Italy, which was affected by the consequences of the recent geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, at the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. Notably, the 2 × 2 matrix technique was used to envision potential scenarios after identifying two critical uncertainties, which represent the most impacting and yet uncertain driving forces of the problem at hand. In this way, based on the level of the traffic flow stability and of the adequacy of port transport infrastructures, four different scenarios have been depicted in qualitative terms and then, their implications have been discussed to propose the Port Authority some recommendations on possible counteractions. The results of the study suggest that valuable initiatives should consider risk sharing through public–private partnerships, the diversification of port services and the rapid implementation of technological advancements.
{"title":"Mitigating uncertainty due to the Red Sea Crisis: A scenario development application to the Port of Trieste, Italy","authors":"Caterina Caramuta, Alessia Grosso, Giovanni Longo","doi":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101703","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101703","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The severe repercussions of the Red Sea crisis on supply chains, as well as the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have highlighted once again their great vulnerability, especially in the face of major and unpredictable shocks. The impacts of these latter have therefore urged decision makers to define resiliency strategies to cope with the uncertainty characterizing the operating environment. With reference to a transport node, in this paper the scenario development approach has been adopted to formally investigate possible futures for the Port of Trieste, Italy, which was affected by the consequences of the recent geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, at the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. Notably, the 2 × 2 matrix technique was used to envision potential scenarios after identifying two critical uncertainties, which represent the most impacting and yet uncertain driving forces of the problem at hand. In this way, based on the level of the traffic flow stability and of the adequacy of port transport infrastructures, four different scenarios have been depicted in qualitative terms and then, their implications have been discussed to propose the Port Authority some recommendations on possible counteractions. The results of the study suggest that valuable initiatives should consider risk sharing through public–private partnerships, the diversification of port services and the rapid implementation of technological advancements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46989,"journal":{"name":"Case Studies on Transport Policy","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 101703"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-13DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101688
Ioannis Sitzimis
This study examines the relationship between international air tourist arrivals and coastal and ferry passenger transport in Greece in 2010–2024. Coastal passenger transport refers to longer-distance island–mainland and inter-island services, while ferry passenger transport concerns short shuttle crossings. Using annual data, with an additional distinction between high and low season, we apply Pearson and Spearman correlations, ordinary least squares regression, and independent-samples t-tests. We find a strong and statistically significant positive association between international air tourist arrivals and coastal passenger traffic. Regression estimates indicate that an additional one million international air tourist arrivals is accompanied, on average, by about 0.30–0.35 million extra coastal passengers, with stronger effects in the high season. For ferry passenger transport, correlations are positive but regression coefficients are not statistically significant and the residuals show persistent autocorrelation, even after first-difference models, so these results are treated as descriptive only and not used for effect-size or policy claims. The t-tests indicate that coastal passenger volumes in high-arrival years are about 3.1–3.2 million higher than in low-arrival years, whereas differences in ferry traffic remain small and statistically insignificant. On this basis, we argue that international air arrivals play an important role in shaping demand for coastal shipping, particularly on longer routes and on services to islands without airports. We also outline how this relationship can be used in the coordination of flight and ship schedules, in the prioritisation of port and fleet investments, and in measures that aim to improve connectivity and support sustainable tourism development in Greece’s island regions.
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