The Green Revolution, grain imports, and income divergence in the developing world

Abstract

This study finds that the Green Revolution (GR), which began in the 1960s, substantially increased grain imports and reduced economic growth in many developing countries. Using the exogenous timing of the GR across crops cultivated in different countries, this study estimates that, for an average developing country with an adoption rate of GR crops below the developing world average, the GR more than tripled its grain imports. This, in turn, reduced its GDP per capita by about one-third from 1965 to 2000. The substantial damage can be mostly explained by the resulting lower agricultural outputs, higher fertility, and lower human capital investment. Combining this effect with the previously estimated direct gains from the GR, it turns out that about half of the developing countries were harmed by the GR. A counterfactual analysis shows that, without the GR, Asian developing countries would not have experienced any faster growth, on average, than African countries. This study suggests that increasing agricultural productivity is the most pertinent way to accelerate the stagnant growth historically experienced by developing countries damaged by the GR.