European Economic Review最新文献

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Quasi-fiscal policies in times of crisis: A high-frequency data analysis 危机时期的准财政政策：高频数据分析

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105265

Luisa Corrado , Daniela Fantozzi , Simona Giglioli

This paper investigates the macroeconomic and distributional impact of quasi-fiscal (QF) policies implemented by the Federal Reserve during the Covid-19 crisis. Using high-frequency, county-level data on consumption and employment, we distinguish between purely monetary measures — such as interest rate cuts and asset purchases — and quasi-fiscal tools like credit facilities and liquidity programs. We show that QF interventions generated faster and stronger effects on both consumption and employment compared to conventional tools, with responses materializing within two to three weeks of announcements. Moreover, we find that these effects were not evenly distributed across US counties: consumption inequality increased in the short term, with wealthier counties experiencing larger gains. We explore the underlying mechanisms and show that both asset-price-related wealth effects and credit availability through lending facilities played key roles, especially in regions with higher capital income and greater access to loans. Our findings suggest that while QF policies can act as effective stabilizers during crises, they may also exacerbate spatial inequalities in the short run, raising new questions for central bank accountability and policy design.

本文研究了美联储在2019冠状病毒病危机期间实施的准财政（QF）政策的宏观经济和分配影响。利用高频的县级消费和就业数据，我们区分了纯货币措施（如降息和资产购买）和准财政工具（如信贷安排和流动性计划）。我们表明，与传统工具相比，QF干预措施对消费和就业产生了更快、更强的影响，并在公告后两到三周内实现了响应。此外，我们发现这些影响在美国各县之间的分布并不均匀：短期内消费不平等加剧，较富裕的县收益更大。我们探索了潜在的机制，并表明与资产价格相关的财富效应和通过贷款工具获得的信贷可获得性都发挥了关键作用，特别是在资本收入较高、贷款渠道更广泛的地区。我们的研究结果表明，虽然QF政策可以在危机期间起到有效的稳定器作用，但它们也可能在短期内加剧空间不平等，这为央行的问责制和政策设计提出了新的问题。

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引用次数: 0

The kindness of strangers: Theory and evidence on spatial distance and giving 陌生人的善意：空间距离与给予的理论与证据

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105269

James Konow , Leonie Kühl , Nora Szech

Arguments for directing charitable giving to distant beneficiaries for their greater benefits contradict actual charitable donations that go mostly to more proximate beneficiaries. Controlled studies reveal mixed results finding the giving-distance relationship to be direct, inverse, flat, or various combinations of the three. This paper reports a new theory of the distinctive relationship between giving and spatial distance and relevant results from four experimental studies. Two studies vary distances between donors and beneficiaries locally: a field experiment involves local refugees and a laboratory experiment local people in need. Both find significant inverse relationships between giving and spatial distance. Two other studies involve variations at farther distances. One is a laboratory experiment that finds no significant effect of distance, but further analysis suggests that a confounding factor, viz., beneficiary need, contributes to that fact. The other is survey experiment that indicates numerous additional confounding factors in comparisons involving far distances. The experimental results are largely consistent with the predictions of the theory: giving is decreasing in spatial distance, ceteris paribus, and is decreasing in exposure to displaced persons, decreasing in support for beneficiaries from sources external to the experiment (e.g., government aid), increasing in donor intrinsic generosity, and increasing in beneficiary need. We also find qualified support for the hypothesized mediator between spatial distance and giving, moral salience. Together, these results confirm our focus on local distances, indicate the presence of confounding factors over far distances, and offer an explanation to reconcile the conflicting results in the prior literature.

为了获得更大的利益而将慈善捐赠给远方受益人的说法，与实际的慈善捐赠主要流向更近的受益人的说法相矛盾。对照研究揭示了混合的结果，发现给予距离的关系是直接的，反向的，平坦的，或三者的各种组合。本文报道了给予与空间距离的独特关系的新理论和四个实验研究的相关结果。两项研究改变了当地捐助者和受益者之间的距离：一项实地实验涉及当地难民，一项实验室实验涉及有需要的当地人民。两者都发现给予与空间距离之间存在显著的反比关系。另外两项研究涉及更远距离的变化。一个是实验室实验，没有发现距离的显著影响，但进一步分析表明，一个混淆因素，即受益人需要，促成了这一事实。另一种是调查实验，它表明在涉及远距离的比较中有许多额外的混淆因素。实验结果与理论的预测基本一致：在其他条件相同的情况下，捐赠的空间距离在减少，与流离失所者的接触在减少，实验外部来源（如政府援助）对受益人的支持在减少，捐助者的内在慷慨程度在增加，受益人的需求在增加。我们还发现了空间距离与给予、道德突出性之间的中介假设的合格支持。总之，这些结果证实了我们对局部距离的关注，表明了远距离混淆因素的存在，并提供了一种解释，以调和先前文献中相互矛盾的结果。

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引用次数: 0

Corruption, trade liberalization and firm productivity: Evidence from Vietnam 腐败、贸易自由化与企业生产率：来自越南的证据

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105264

Chiara Tomasi , Quoc Thai Le

This paper investigates how corruption influences the gains from trade liberalization. Using firm-level data from Vietnam from 2000 to 2012, which includes the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the analysis provides robust causal evidence, based on fixed effects and instrumental variable estimation techniques, that corruption mitigates the positive impact of tariff reduction on firm productivity. One key mechanism through which corruption may limit productivity is by reducing importing. The paper shows that the likelihood of importing following input tariff cuts is lower for firms in provinces with higher corruption. We examine the broader implications of our firm-level findings and show that, in a counterfactual scenario without corruption, Vietnam’s productivity gains from trade liberalization would have been higher.

本文探讨了腐败对贸易自由化收益的影响。利用越南2000年至2012年（包括该国加入世界贸易组织（WTO）期间）的企业层面数据，基于固定效应和工具变量估计技术，该分析提供了强有力的因果证据，表明腐败减轻了关税削减对企业生产率的积极影响。腐败可能限制生产力的一个关键机制是减少进口。研究表明，在腐败程度较高的省份，企业在降低进口关税后进行进口的可能性较低。我们研究了公司层面调查结果的更广泛含义，并表明，在没有腐败的反事实情景中，越南从贸易自由化中获得的生产力收益将更高。

引用次数: 0

Infrastructure and global value chain position: Evidence from China 基础设施与全球价值链地位：来自中国的证据

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105239

Guohao Yang

This paper studies the impact of transportation costs on a country’s participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs) and the consequential role of the processing producers. In doing so, I incorporate the processing production into a sequential production model à la Antrás and de Gortari (2020) with a multivariate Frechet distribution. My model predicts that a reduction in foreign trade costs increases the specialization of a region in exporting downstream products, and processing exports are more responsive to foreign trade costs than ordinary exports. These two predictions are consistent with the empirical facts documented by the development of the Chinese Expressway between 2000 and 2010, which serves as a natural experiment. In my welfare analysis, my model shows that a reduction in foreign transportation costs leads to a 0.4% of aggregate welfare gain, and processing exporters can explain up to 80% of this welfare gain. However, removing expressways and processing policies together results in a welfare loss of 4.82%, lower than the loss of removing expressways alone, which is 17.3%. This suggests that the implementation of the processing trade policy is not always beneficial when considering the placement of transportation infrastructure. This is because transportation infrastructure changes the relative importance of domestic and foreign markets.

本文研究了运输成本对一国参与全球价值链的影响以及加工生产商的相应作用。在此过程中，我将加工生产纳入具有多元Frechet分布的顺序生产模型 la Antrás和de Gortari（2020）。我的模型预测，对外贸易成本的降低提高了一个地区出口下游产品的专业化程度，加工出口比普通出口对外贸成本的反应更灵敏。这两种预测与2000 - 2010年中国高速公路发展的经验事实相一致，具有自然实验的作用。在我的福利分析中，我的模型显示，国外运输成本的降低导致了总福利收益的0.4%，而加工出口商可以解释这一福利收益的80%。但是，取消高速公路和处理政策的福利损失为4.82%，低于单独取消高速公路的损失（17.3%）。这表明，在考虑运输基础设施的安置时，加工贸易政策的实施并不总是有益的。这是因为交通基础设施改变了国内和国外市场的相对重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Acquisitions, inventors’ turnover, and innovation: Evidence from the pharmaceutical industry 收购、发明者更替和创新：来自制药业的证据

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105263

Carmine Ornaghi , Lorenzo Cassi

This paper examines the relationship between the post-merger decline in patenting among pharmaceutical firms, as observed in previous firm-level studies, and the following individual-level dynamics: (i) the exit of inventors from the innovation market, (ii) the departure of inventors from target firms to other research labs, and (iii) a decline in the innovative output of inventors who remain within the acquired firms. Using a large sample of target companies, we estimate that acquisitions are associated with an increase in exit rates of inventors between 7.6 and 17.5 percentage points and of their departure rates ranging from 12.2 to18.9 percentage points. We find similar results are obtained for large and small deals and that top inventors of targets are also more likely to exit or to leave when an acquisition takes place. Our results show that, for each inventor that exits the innovation market, around 2 patents are foregone, representing more than 30 percent loss of the expected output these scientists could have produced over their careers. Inventors who relocate to a different lab also generate 2 fewer patents compared to similar control scientists, representing a 30 percent decrease in their productivity too. Finally, inventors that stay at the acquired targets also experience a decrease in output of nearly one fewer patent. These results point to a significant decline in both human capital and consumer welfare, which call for a closer scrutiny of M&As.

本文考察了制药企业并购后专利申请数量下降与以下个人层面动态之间的关系：(i)发明家退出创新市场，（ii）发明家从目标公司转移到其他研究实验室，以及（iii）留在被收购公司的发明家创新产出下降。通过大量的目标公司样本，我们估计收购与发明人的退出率增加7.6到17.5个百分点以及他们的离职率增加12.2到18.9个百分点有关。我们发现，无论是大型交易还是小型交易，结果都是相似的，而且在收购发生时，目标的顶级发明者也更有可能退出或离开。我们的研究结果表明，每有一个发明家退出创新市场，就有大约两项专利被放弃，这意味着这些科学家在其职业生涯中本可以产生的预期产出损失超过30%。与同类科学家相比，搬到不同实验室的发明家获得的专利也减少了2项，这也意味着他们的生产力下降了30%。最后，留在被收购目标的发明人的专利产出也会减少近一项。这些结果表明，人力资本和消费者福利都出现了显著下降，这要求我们对M&；As进行更严格的审查。

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引用次数: 0

The early bird gets the germs? The impact of early daycare attendance on children’s health 早起的鸟儿有病菌？早托对儿童健康的影响

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105261

Mara Barschkett

In recent decades, the share of very young children in daycare has significantly increased in many OECD countries, including Germany. Despite the critical role of child health in development and later life success, the impact of early daycare attendance on health has received little attention in the economic literature. This study examines the effects of a substantial daycare expansion in Germany on children’s dynamic mental and physical health outcomes by age. Drawing on a unique set of administrative health records covering 90% of the German population over a ten-year period, I exploit exogenous variation in daycare attendance induced by this expansion. My findings indicate a substitution of illness spells from elementary school to the early years of daycare. Specifically, early daycare attendance is associated with a 5–6 percent increase in the prevalence of respiratory and infectious diseases, as well as healthcare consumption among children aged 1–2 years. Conversely, by elementary school age (6–10 years), the prevalence of these conditions decreases by a similar magnitude. However, I find no evidence of daycare attendance affecting mental disorders, obesity, injuries, vision problems, or healthcare costs. Additional analyses reveal earlier detection of vision problems and a reduction in obesity among children from disadvantaged backgrounds, as well as beneficial spillover effects on parents.

近几十年来，在包括德国在内的许多经合组织国家，幼儿在日托所占的比例显著增加。尽管儿童健康在发展和以后的生活成功中起着关键作用，但在经济文献中，早期日托对健康的影响很少受到关注。本研究考察了德国日托的大规模扩张对儿童年龄动态心理和身体健康结果的影响。利用一组独特的行政健康记录，覆盖了十年来90%的德国人口，我利用这种扩张引起的日托出勤的外生变化。我的研究结果表明，从小学到早期的日托，疾病的发作是替代的。具体而言，在1-2岁的儿童中，早期日托与呼吸道疾病和传染病患病率增加5 - 6%以及医疗保健消费有关。相反，到了小学年龄（6-10岁），这些疾病的患病率也以类似的幅度下降。然而，我没有发现日托会影响精神障碍、肥胖、受伤、视力问题或医疗费用的证据。其他分析表明，在弱势背景的儿童中，视力问题的早期发现和肥胖的减少，以及对父母的有益溢出效应。

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引用次数: 0

Trusting machines with morality — Delegating moral decisions to AI 信任有道德的机器——将道德决策委托给人工智能

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105255

Nicola Hüholt, Nora Szech

Research suggests that individuals are generally skeptical about the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in moral contexts, favoring human decision-makers over AI. Yet, in two experiments involving a total of 5639 participants, we find that individuals facing a real-life moral decision delegate significantly more often when they can delegate to AI rather than to a human counterpart. This result highlights AI’s relative appeal as a moral delegate, indicating that individuals’ preferences for AI’s involvement change when they themselves assume the role of a decision-maker. Responsibility shifting, previously studied as a motive for delegation to humans, extends to AI delegates. Moreover, it appears to be facilitated by individuals adapting their beliefs about AI’s capability in a self-serving manner. Ambiguity surrounding that capability allows them to interpret it in ways that justify delegation. These findings add nuance to assumptions about algorithm aversion in moral domains and raise critical questions about accountability and the ethical implications of relying on AI for morally sensitive decisions.

研究表明，人们普遍对在道德背景下使用人工智能（AI）持怀疑态度，倾向于人类决策者而不是人工智能。然而，在两个涉及5639名参与者的实验中，我们发现，当个人面临现实生活中的道德决策时，他们更倾向于委托给人工智能而不是人类。这一结果突出了人工智能作为道德代表的相对吸引力，表明当个人承担了决策者的角色时，他们对人工智能参与的偏好会发生变化。责任转移，之前被研究为委派给人类的动机，扩展到人工智能的委派。此外，它似乎是由个人以一种自私的方式调整他们对人工智能能力的信念而促成的。围绕这种能力的模糊性使他们能够以合理的委托方式来解释它。这些发现增加了关于道德领域中算法厌恶的假设的细微差别，并提出了关于依赖人工智能进行道德敏感决策的问责制和伦理影响的关键问题。

引用次数: 0

Beliefs about the gender pension gap 对性别养老金差距的看法

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105244

Jana Schuetz

I conduct an online survey of 3000 respondents in the United States to examine individuals’ beliefs about the gender pension gap. By including an information provision experiment in which treated respondents are informed about the size of the gender pension gap, I examine whether receiving this information causally affects respondents’ perceptions of the fairness and drivers of the gender pension gap and their support for policies aimed at reducing it. I find that most respondents underestimate the gender pension gap and that treated respondents are less likely to perceive the gender pension gap as fair. In addition, treated respondents perceive the unequal distribution of care work and gender differences in wages as more important drivers of the gap, and their demand for remedial policies such as targeted financial education increases significantly. This increase in policy demand is driven by male respondents and Republicans.

我在美国对3000名受访者进行了一项在线调查，以检查个人对性别养老金差距的看法。通过包含一个信息提供实验，在该实验中，接受治疗的受访者被告知性别养老金差距的大小，我研究了接收这些信息是否会影响受访者对性别养老金差距的公平性和驱动因素的看法，以及他们对旨在减少性别养老金差距的政策的支持。我发现大多数受访者低估了性别养老金差距，而被对待的受访者不太可能认为性别养老金差距是公平的。此外，接受治疗的受访者认为，护理工作的不平等分配和工资的性别差异是造成差距的更重要因素，他们对针对性金融教育等补救政策的需求显著增加。这种政策需求的增长是由男性受访者和共和党人推动的。

引用次数: 0

Seeing and hearing is believing: The role of audiovisual communication in shaping inflation expectations 眼见为实：视听交流在塑造通胀预期中的作用

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105253

Elliott Ash, Heiner Mikosch, Alexis Perakis, Samad Sarferaz

This paper presents novel causal evidence on the effect of different communication channels employed by central banks on people’s expectations about future inflation. In a pre-registered randomized survey experiment among a representative household sample, we examine adjustment of inflation expectations when confronted with a press conference statement by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) articulating the bank’s commitment to its 2% inflation target. We show that the medium of communication matters, holding the content of the message constant: Relative to a text transcript, audiovisual mediums strengthen updating toward the inflation target, with dynamic mediums (audio and video) being more effective than static mediums (photo). In a Bayesian updating framework, we find that audiovisual communication increases the signal gain as compared to textual communication, i.e., respondents put more weight on the information they receive. We also show that economically less-informed households (those consuming less economic news) are more responsive in updating to audiovisual mediums. Overall, our results suggest that central bank messages aimed directly at the public can help to anchor inflation expectations.

本文提出了新的因果证据，证明央行采用的不同沟通渠道对人们对未来通胀预期的影响。在一个有代表性的家庭样本中进行了一项预先登记的随机调查实验，我们研究了面对欧洲央行（ECB）行长在新闻发布会上发表的声明，阐明了欧洲央行对2%通胀目标的承诺时，通胀预期的调整。我们表明，传播媒介很重要，保持信息的内容不变：相对于文本记录，视听媒介加强了对通胀目标的更新，动态媒介（音频和视频）比静态媒介（照片）更有效。在贝叶斯更新框架中，我们发现视听交流比文本交流增加了信号增益，即受访者更重视他们收到的信息。我们还表明，经济信息较少的家庭（那些消费较少经济新闻的家庭）在更新视听媒体方面反应更灵敏。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，央行直接针对公众发出的信息有助于稳定通胀预期。

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引用次数: 0

Market power and global public goods 市场力量和全球公共产品

IF 2.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105257

Sebastian G. Kessing

A global monopoly supplier country of green goods which are essential for the provision of global environmental public goods optimally subsidizes the export of such goods in an interior contribution equilibrium. This is not counterbalanced by an incentive to improve the terms-of-trade, since any price-induced transfers are off-set by contribution adjustments. By the same logic, a subsidy is costless for the monopoly supplier. The existence of a global monopoly supplier increases global public good supply relative to a competitive setting. The incentive to subsidize persists with impure public goods. Import-dependent countries may also benefit from a monopoly supplier. While they are strategically exploited to increase their contributions to the global public good, they do so at lower costs, and they benefit from increased contributions by the other importer countries.

对于提供全球环境公共产品至关重要的绿色产品的全球垄断供应国，在内部贡献均衡中对此类产品的出口提供最优补贴。这无法通过改善贸易条件的激励来抵消，因为任何价格引起的转移都可以通过贡献调整来抵消。按照同样的逻辑，补贴对垄断供应商来说是没有成本的。相对于竞争环境，全球垄断供应商的存在增加了全球公共产品的供应。补贴的动机持续存在于不纯的公共产品中。依赖进口的国家也可能从垄断供应商中获益。虽然它们被战略性地利用来增加它们对全球公益的贡献，但它们这样做的成本较低，而且它们从其他进口国增加的贡献中受益。

引用次数: 0

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