Comparing Teacher Turnover Intentions to Actual Turnover: Cautions and Lessons for the Field

Abstract

Many studies rely on teachers’ reported career intentions instead of measuring actual turnover, but research does not clearly document how these variables relate to one another. We test how measures of teacher intentions relate to turnover. Using nationally representative data on 102,970 public school teachers, we conduct a descriptive and regression analysis to probe how teachers’ turnover intentions are and are not associated with moving schools and leaving teaching. While there is some variation across measures of intent, we find evidence that intention is distinct from, but strongly related to, turnover. We advise that surveys continue to capture intention as it provides meaningful information, but we recommend intention not be used as proxy for turnover.