Characteristics and changes of glacial lakes and outburst floods

Abstract

Global glacier mass loss has accelerated, producing more and larger glacial lakes. Many of these glacial lakes are a source of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which pose threats to people and infrastructure. In this Review, we synthesize global changes in glacial lakes and GLOFs. More than 110,000 glacial lakes currently exist, covering a total area of ~15,000 km2, having increased in area by ~22% dec–1 from 1990 to 2020. More than 10 million people are exposed to the impacts of GLOFs, commonly associated with dam failure or wave overtopping associated with mass movements. Although data limitations are substantial, more than 3,000 GLOFs have been recorded from 850 to 2022, particularly in Alaska (24%), High Mountain Asia (HMA; 18%) and Iceland (19%), the majority (64.8%) being from ice-dammed lakes. Recorded GLOFs have increased in most glaciated mountain regions of the world, with ongoing deglaciation and lake expansion expected to increase GLOF frequency further. In HMA, GLOF hazards are projected to triple by 2100, but changes in other regions will likely be lower given topographic constraints on lake evolution. Future research should prioritize acquiring field data on lake and dam properties, producing globally coordinated multi-temporal lake mapping, and robust and efficient modelling of GLOFs for comprehensive hazard assessment and response planning. Warmer temperatures enhance formation of glacial lakes that can suddenly and catastrophically release as a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), threatening downstream lives and infrastructure. This Review outlines observed and projected changes in glacial lakes and GLOFs, reporting that both will increase with ongoing deglaciation.