Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Price Volatility at Nairobi Securities Exchange

Abstract

The stock price volatility has been a problem in stock markets affecting the stock returns of firms listed at Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE). Although some scholars have focused on the issue of high share price volatility, the issue persists and still hinders the development of the market. This study main objective is to determine the effects of macroeconomic factors on volatility of stock prices of stock market in Kenya. The specific objectives are; to establish the effects of inflation on stock prices of stock market in Kenya; to establish the effects of interest rates on volatility of stock prices of stock market in Kenya; and to establish the effects of exchange rates on stock prices of stock market in Kenya. The research was anchored on four theories and two models namely the Arbitrage pricing theory, Modern portfolio theory, information cascade theory, Fisher’s theory, Efficient market hypothesis and present value model. The research applied a causal research design, which followed the positivism philosophy of research and knowledge creation. The study focused on analyzing the effects of macroeconomic factors on volatility of stock prices of the NSE 20 share index in Nairobi Securities Exchange over a period ranging from 2009 to 2021. The design allowed collection of monthly data on the study variables and time series analysis of the hypothesized relationships between independent and dependent variables and conducted both descriptive statistical analysis and inferential statistical analysis. Descriptive statistical analysis involved generation of central tendency statistics such as mean, minimum and maximum points of the data as well as standard deviations to show the spread of the data from the mean. The inferential statistical analysis utilized in this study was Error Correction Model, guided by the results of cointegration tests. From the descriptive statistical analysis, the study found that between 2009 and 2021, interest rates demonstrated an average of approximately 9.155, inflation averaged around 150.916, foreign exchange rate maintained an average of roughly 94.219, and stock price volatility averaged 0.4%. The Error Correction Model revealed that, interest rates have no significant effect on stock price volatility of NSE 20 share index (β = -0.00034, p.value = 0.805).  Similarly, inflation has no significant effect on stock price volatility of NSE 20 share index (β = -0.0000394, p.value = 0.218).  However, foreign exchange has negative and significant effect on stock price volatility in Kenya (β = -0.0139, p.value = 0.017). The study concluded that interest rates and inflation have no significant effect on stock price volatility in Kenyan stock market, while foreign exchange has inverse and significant effect on stock price volatility. Thus, the study recommends that market participants, including government, investors, traders, policy makers and financial institutions, should incorporate foreign exchange rate movements into their risk management strategies. Adequate measures and policies such as market circuit breakers and enhanced risk management protocols should be in place to ensure smooth market operations and prevent any disruptions due to changing foreign exchange dynamics